Traders seem to expect BTC’s momentum could slow down a bit after the price hit over $97,000.

Positive sentiment has continued to fuel the cryptocurrency market as the expectation of further institutional adoption of 

 keeps growing. Options trading of BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT 

 with a bang, attracting almost $2 billion on the first day of trading. The hope of more spot ETF derivatives to change the market structure with additional institutional money onboarding crypto is high.

, we explored the possibility of the market being overleveraged, which could be painful if the current leverage unwinds. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the estimated leverage of the current BTC markets has reached another YTD high.

Derivatives data on Bybit shows that traders seem to expect that BTC’s momentum could slow down a bit after the price hit over $97,000, and are focusing more on downside protection.

Figure 1: Bitcoin estimated leverage ratio at 0.23. Source: CryptoQuant

BTC Options Open Interest Returns to Previous High While Perps Are Catching Up

Derivatives traders have been actively participating in BTC markets as 

 on Bybit has surged to over $3 billion, on par with the previous high on Nov 14, 2024. Although the options OI has increased, it still hasn’t surged above the previous high. At the time, BTC’s price had already jumped to over $97,000. If the OI doesn’t follow suit and break above the previous high in the coming days, this could be a sign that the market could become a bit exhausted — something for all market participants to be aware of.

Figure 2: Daily open interest for BTC options on Bybit. Source: Bybit

 have also seen increased open interest in recent days. Perpetuals have been among the most favorable products for day traders and short-term speculators. Rising open interest could indicate that more traders are looking for short-term profit, which could bring additional volatility to the market. 

Figure 3: Daily open interest for BTCUSDT Perpetuals on Bybit. Source: Bybit

Dec 27, 2024 remains the most popular expiration date for BTC Options on Bybit, with most of the open interest there. Within that expiration, $120,000 calls had the most OI, and $100,000 calls accumulated the second-largest OI. 

Figure 4: Open interest by strike for BTC Options with a Dec 27, 2024 expiration. Source: Bybit

Meanwhile, the market’s optimism that BTC will hit $100,000 by the end of the year seems to support the current price momentum. Shorter-dated options could show that traders are also looking for downside protection. The Bybit 

 page shows that BTC Options with a Nov 29, 2024 expiration have a strong 24-hour inflow to $90,000 puts. This could indicate that some traders are also anticipating some degree of price correction by the end of the month. 

Figure 5: 24-hour volume by strike for BTC Options with a Nov 29, 2024 expiration on Bybit. Source: Bybit

 for BTC Options on Bybit also indicates a possible downside protection in play among options traders. A smirk skew, or left skew, is a skew curve that’s steeper on one side (the left side) than the other. Traditionally, a smirk skew curve could mean that traders have been protecting their portfolios against a possible declining market. At the time of this writing (Nov 21, 2024), BTC Options contracts on Bybit with Nov 29, 2024 and Dec 27, 2024 expirations have both shown a smirk skew. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean traders are bearish on the price, and could just be part of the trading strategy. For example, traders could set up collars by buying out-of-the-money (OTM) puts and selling OTM calls simultaneously, so that they can profit in case BTC’s price drops, gain upside exposure and potentially offset the cost of buying the puts. 

Figure 6: Implied volatility of BTC Options with Nov 29, 2024 and Dec 27, 2024 expirations. Source: Bybit

The current BTC leverage trading may be complex, but tells a revealing narrative about market sentiment. The divergence between high leverage and increased hedging activities also reminds us that market dynamics are rarely straightforward, and adopting a 

 seems increasingly important in this diverse market.

: Investing in cryptocurrencies and their derivatives involves substantial risk of loss, and isn’t suitable for every investor. This article provides facts for educational purposes only, and does not represent any financial advice. Prior to making any investment decisions, please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Our customer support team is available to assist you with any inquiries.

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Learn From Smart Money: BTC’s Leverage Remains High as Traders Hedge Against Downside Risks

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report dives into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Spot prices have jumped significantly in the two weeks following the November 5, 2024 U.S. elections, propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs, while Ethereum hasn’t kept pace. The implied volatility term structure has inverted again in tandem with these spot price movements, although longer-dated tenors remain relatively stable. Derivatives market indicators reflect strong positive sentiment: perpetual funding rates are consistently positive, open interest in futures contracts is rapidly increasing and options skew remains firmly positive.

Open interest in futures has surged, indicating heightened market participation and a growing interest in leveraged exposure due to recent price movements. Similarly, open interest in perpetual contracts has sharply increased, fueled by rising trader confidence and a growing demand for leveraged positions in light of recent market rallies. Meanwhile, the implied volatility term structure continues to invert in alignment with spot price increases, demonstrating a sustained correlation between spot prices and volatility.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Futures Open Interest Reaches ATH Along With Price

Perpetual swap open interest has been increasing alongside futures, with a consistent rise in open positions over the past week reaching all-time high activity levels. This trend suggests that traders are actively pursuing leveraged exposure in response to the ongoing spot rallies, aiming to capitalize on the rising spot prices. Notably, there’s been renewed interest in Ethereum (ETH), reflected in rising trading volumes. 

Perpetual swap funding rates have reached exceptionally positive levels, indicating that long positions are confident enough to pay these rates to sustain their leveraged exposure. This trend has consistently been observed across all tokens, with a noticeable rise in funding rates since Nov 10, 2024. The persistently high funding rates highlight the strength of the bullish sentiment, which is also evident in the increasing open interest in futures contracts. This aligns with the recent spot price action, demonstrating significant upward momentum.

Option Volatility Term Structure Inverts 

The implied volatility term structure for Bitcoin has inverted amid the recent spot rallies over the past few weeks, indicating heightened market uncertainty and expectations of imminent price movements. However, levels haven’t exceeded the highs seen before the elections, and longer-dated tenors remain firmly range-bound. Concurrently, open interest in Bitcoin options has risen significantly, with a notable increase in put trading volumes. Open interest in puts has slightly surpassed calls, despite the persistently bullish market outlook indicated by the volatility smile skew.

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Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Nov 20, 2024): Market Becomes Extremely Positive About Bitcoin as Volatility Curve Turns Invert

Learn how to join Bybit's VIP Program, where you can realize exclusive benefits — from up to 50% off trading fees and tailored interest rates to instant OTC trades up to $10M.

With the Bybit VIP Program, you can realize exclusive benefits — from up to 50% off trading fees and tailored interest rates to instant OTC trades, Bybit Card cashback and more. Joining the ranks of the very best traders on the platform will boost your profitability, raise your limits and offer access to VIP-only perks.

 and guides you through the steps to become a VIP trader and unlock exclusive benefits. Let's get started!

 is an exclusive club for the most esteemed traders in the crypto market. It’s designed to provide members an enhanced Bybit experience with numerous VIP-only benefits and perks. The program aims to reward avid traders who have high volumes, account equity levels and borrowing activities.

The Bybit VIP Program offers a multitude of benefits for members. These range from discounted trading fees and high limits for withdrawals and application programming interface (API) trades to priority Bybit customer support access, relationship managers and exclusive VIP events and meetups. You can find the full list of VIP exclusive benefits 

Requirements to Become a Bybit VIP Trader

You’ll need to fulfill a specific level for one of the criteria below to become a VIP trader on Bybit:

Bybit's VIP Program features six distinct tiers: 

. Each successively higher tier offers greater rewards, and also comes with more stringent qualification requirements. For instance, as a 

 trader, you’ll enjoy reduced trading fees, such as 0.03% for makers and 0.045% for takers in the spot market. To qualify for this exclusive tier, you must meet at least one of the following criteria:

Once you become a VIP trader, you must continuously meet the above criteria to maintain your Bybit VIP status and keep enjoying the benefits. 

However, this doesn't mean your account will immediately lose its VIP status and revert to standard after a single day in which you don’t meet the requirements. Bybit offers a 14-day grace during which you can continue enjoying VIP perks and benefits, even if you no longer meet the program's conditions. If the criteria are not met by the end of this period, your VIP status will automatically be revoked. However, if that occurs, you can regain your status by fulfilling the requirements for any VIP tier either during or after the grace period. When this happens, Bybit will grant you a new 14-day grace period.

How to Sign up to Become a Bybit VIP Trader

In the following section, you'll find a step-by-step guide that shows you how to join the Bybit VIP Program.

The first step to becoming a VIP trader is to open a Bybit account (if you haven't already done so). Simply 

 and fill out the form with your details. After registering, you’ll need to verify your account to enjoy the platform's full functionality.

Next, fund your Bybit account with crypto or fiat currency.

You can deposit cryptocurrencies by using the 

 menu. On the page, choose your desired coin and the blockchain where you'll be depositing the assets. To avoid any loss of funds, please always ensure that you're transferring crypto from the correct chain.

Next, copy-and-paste the wallet address displayed on the page, or scan the QR code with your smartphone's camera, and initiate the deposit from your wallet. After a few confirmations, your cryptocurrencies will be credited to your Bybit account.

To fund your Bybit account with fiat currency, click on the 

 button and select one of the available services (e.g., 

 service, choose a fiat currency, the deposit amount and one of the available payment methods. After clicking on 

, follow the instructions displayed on the next pages to initiate the transaction. Your funds will be credited to your Bybit account, with processing times varying according to your chosen service and payment method.

After you have a verified Bybit account funded with either crypto or fiat, perform eligible activity on the platform until you qualify for VIP status (see table below).

You can achieve VIP status by fulfilling a minimum level of VIP 1 in either of the following categories (

After becoming a VIP trader on Bybit, don't forget to maintain your VIP status to continue enjoying the exclusive perks and benefits.

If you have active VIP status at another crypto exchange, or your total MT5 trading volume meets Bybit's VIP criteria, you can apply for a VIP+2 upgrade. This upgrade will grant you VIP status on the platform — and instantly elevate it by two levels. (Please 

 that Bybit only considers 10% of any MT5 forex trading volume.)

 and submit your 30-day trading volume on your current exchange. Bybit’s VIP team will review your application, and a Relationship Manager will contact you if you're eligible for the VIP upgrade.

How to Get Started With a 20-Day Bybit VIP Trial

Another way to qualify for VIP status on Bybit is through a 20-day trial. Instead of fulfilling the requirements of the VIP 1 level, simply fund your account with $50,000 to enjoy the exclusive benefits of the program for 20 days with a VIP Trial Card (issued one day after your deposit). The VIP trial offer is available to users who haven't used a trial within the past two months.

To unlock the 20-day VIP trial, head to the 

 menu on Bybit and use one of the available payment methods to fund your account with $50,000 in assets.

With VIP Level-Up Tasks, you can earn generous bonuses as high as 6,000 USDT. You can claim rewards for Level-Up Tasks for five VIP levels (VIP 1, VIP 2, VIP 3, VIP 4 and VIP 5), with higher tiers offering greater bonuses upon completion.

If you're eligible, you’ll see a pop-up window with VIP Level-Up Tasks after you log into your account. To claim your rewards, complete the specified trading volume requirement within 14 days of receiving the task, and click on the 

 page. You can learn more about Bybit VIP Level-Up Tasks

Exclusive Trading Benefits Offered to Bybit VIPs

As a member of the Bybit VIP Program, you can unlock exclusive benefits to supercharge your trading experience. Among these are discounted trading fees (which can significantly boost your trading revenue), profitability and chances of winning trades.

In addition to discounted trading fees, you’ll also enjoy substantially higher API trading and withdrawal limits. While the former is restricted to 10 trades per second for non-VIP users, you can take advantage of up to 120 API trades per second as a VIP trader. Simultaneously, your daily withdrawal limit is increased from the basic 1 million USDT to as high as 12 million USDT.

 is an exclusive club that provides an enhanced service experience for the most esteemed traders. As a member, you can access a multitude of exclusive benefits and perks, such as the following:

Are you ready to supercharge your trading experience? 

Intermediate

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How to Become a Bybit VIP: Your Guide to Exclusive Benefits

LETSTOP is a drive-to-earn mobile app that monitors phone distractions while driving. Learn more about how it works in this article.

Smartphone distractions have created an unprecedented road safety crisis worldwide. 

: texting behind the wheel makes drivers six times more likely to crash than drunk driving does — yet millions of drivers still use their phones while operating vehicles.

This article explores how LETSTOP is transforming safe driving into rewarding experiences through blockchain technology. We'll examine its drive-to-earn model, reward system, tokenomics and potential as both a road safety solution and an investment opportunity.

 is a drive-to-earn mobile app that monitors phone distractions while driving. Users earn STOP tokens for phone-free driving through a gamified system that transforms daily drives into rewarding experiences.

A life-changing car accident caused by a distracted driver running a red light inspired LETSTOP co-founder Almog Nissan to reimagine road safety. Together with co-founder and CEO Dor Levy, they envisioned rewarding safe driving, rather than just punishing dangerous behavior.

The founders built a platform that combines automotive technology, cryptocurrency and AI to revolutionize road safety through rewards. This innovative approach has quickly gained traction, with over 50,000 users logging over 3 million kilometers of safe driving since the app’s launch.

Distracted driving claims thousands of lives annually, with 

, of which 9% are directly linked to phone use. LETSTOP aims to tackle this crisis as follows:

Each of these objectives works harmoniously to support LETSTOP's ultimate mission of transforming road safety into a rewarding experience that benefits both individual drivers and society.

The LETSTOP app operates through a sophisticated system that monitors and rewards safe driving through the following apps and features:

The result is a dynamic system in which better driving habits unlock greater earning potential.

The following five core features power LETSTOP's drive-to-earn ecosystem.

LETSTOP uses a dynamic 40-level system to make safe driving rewarding. As drivers earn XP through distraction-free journeys, they advance from Level 1's 2% bonus toward Level 40's 70% boost. Through this gamified approach, daily commutes become opportunities to climb the ranks while building safer driving habits.

LETSTOP Credits are the core currency of the platform, earned directly through safe driving achievements. Earning rates directly scale with user level, vehicle type and subscription tier as follows: PRO subscribers enjoy unlimited earning potential, while PLUS and LITE tiers are capped at 300 and 150 monthly credits, respectively.

In the STOP Store, users invest their earned credits into virtual cars with unique earning multipliers. From the basic model's 2% bonus to the Jazzster GN's 150% boost, each vehicle offers different strategic advantages for maximizing rewards.

Beyond vehicles, the store features mystery boxes containing rewards from 10 to 450 credits, as well as car upgrades and subscription boosts. Users can also access a voucher marketplace to redeem credits for real-world rewards through LETSTOP's partnership network.

LETSTOP's triple-boost system combines vehicle multipliers for immediate earnings acceleration, a level-progression system for sustained growth and a 5% referral program for community expansion. Premium membership unlocks enhanced benefits across three tiers, while special events create time-limited opportunities for increased rewards.

The platform's comprehensive rewards system operates across three membership tiers, each one tailored to different user needs. LETSTOP PRO (at $9.90 monthly) offers unlimited credit earning potential and exclusive benefits. The PLUS tier provides a balanced option at $4.90 monthly with a 300-credit earning cap, while the free LITE tier allows users to earn up to 150 monthly credits.

Beyond direct earnings, the rewards system incorporates partner vouchers, cryptocurrency conversion options and community features, such as leaderboards. Achievement rewards recognize milestones in users' safe driving journeys, while the upcoming cryptocurrency integration will allow users to convert their efforts into tradeable STOP tokens.

LETSTOP has shown consistent progress, with the following key milestones already achieved:

Looking ahead to 2025, LETSTOP plans to implement the following key developments:

These developments aim to strengthen LETSTOP's position as a leader in drive-to-earn while furthering its mission to enable safer roads worldwide.

STOP is an SPL token built on the Solana network. It’s designed to bridge safe driving behavior with cryptocurrency rewards. The STOP token implements an annual halving mechanism to ensure long-term value preservation, similar to Bitcoin's model, but accelerated to align with the project's growth trajectory.

STOP has a max supply of 100 million tokens, to be distributed in the following manner:

The growing adoption of LETSTOP's drive-to-earn app and its impact on road safety directly influence STOP's price trajectory. While cryptocurrency forecasts remain speculative by nature, multiple price analysis platforms project the following for STOP:

These forecasts suggest a positive long-term outlook for STOP, driven by the growing drive-to-earn sector and LETSTOP's innovative approach to road safety. However, STOP's future value will ultimately depend upon user adoption, platform development and broader market conditions.

Looking to trade LETSTOP tokens? Bybit now offers the STOP/USDT Spot trading pair. To get started, you’ll first need to create a Bybit account, then fund it with cryptocurrency and navigate to the 

STOP shows promising potential in the drive-to-earn sector, though investors should carefully weigh both its strengths and potential risks before making investment decisions.

While STOP's innovative approach to road safety and its strong initial traction distinguish it in the market, potential investors should 

 and invest no more than they can afford to lose.

As smartphone distractions continue to endanger lives on roads worldwide, LETSTOP offers an innovative path forward. Through its innovative drive-to-earn model and STOP token ecosystem, the platform transforms daily commutes into safer roads and user earnings opportunities, showing how digital innovation can effectively “drive” positive behavioral change.

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LETSTOP (STOP): Turning Daily Rides Into Profitable Journeys

Bybit Learn

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory is a mathematical model proposing that Bitcoin's price follows a power law distribution over time. Learn more here.

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Bitcoin's meteoric rise has positioned it as 

 that challenges traditional financial markets and captures investors' imaginations worldwide. But in a market known for volatility, how can we accurately forecast Bitcoin's price?

This article reviews one novel approach that could help us answer that question: the Bitcoin Power Law Theory (BPLT). We'll explore how this mathematical model works, its potential for predicting Bitcoin's price, its limitations and what the model indicates about Bitcoin's future.

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory is a mathematical model which proposes that Bitcoin's price follows a power law distribution over time. It uses logarithmic scales and regression analysis to predict long-term price trends, similar to patterns observed in natural phenomena.

How Does the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Work?

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory operates on the principle that Bitcoin's price follows a power law distribution. In physics, power laws describe relationships in which a relative change in one quantity results in a proportional relative change in another.

By applying this principle to Bitcoin, Giovanni Santostasi, BPLT’s creator, has hypothesized that Bitcoin behaves more like a physical system that follows a predictable pattern over time. Here's a detailed breakdown of how the theory works:

Estimated Price = A * (days from Genesis Block)

The BPLT suggests that this power law relationship extends beyond just price. Santostasi observed similar power law behaviors in other Bitcoin metrics, such as the growth of 

 (computing power of the network) and the new wallet address creation rate.

It's important to note that while the model provides a framework for long-term 

, it doesn't account for short-term volatility or external factors that could influence Bitcoin's price. The theory assumes that over long periods, these fluctuations average out, revealing an underlying growth pattern governed by the power law.

How to Interpret the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Model

Interpreting the Bitcoin Power Law Theory model requires understanding its key components and what they represent. The following is a guide to reading and utilizing the model.

As the central line of the model, the linear regression line represents the "fair value" of Bitcoin according to the power law. It's derived from the best fit of historical data, and serves as the primary predictive tool. When Bitcoin's price is close to this line, it can be considered at its expected value based on the model.

Located below the regression line, the support line represents the lower boundary of Bitcoin's predicted price range. Bitcoin's price rarely falls below this line for extended periods, so some investors see any dips toward this line as a buying opportunity.

Positioned above the regression line, the resistance line indicates the upper boundary of Bitcoin's expected price range. Consequently, price approaches to this line often signal potential selling or shorting opportunities for traders.

To use the model, compare Bitcoin's current price to these three lines as follows:

The overall slope of these lines provides insight into Bitcoin's long-term growth trajectory. A steeper slope suggests faster growth over time, while a shallower slope indicates slower growth.

The space between the support and resistance lines offers a potential price range for Bitcoin at any given future date. Due to increasing uncertainty in long-term forecasts, this range grows wider as predictions extend further into the future.

Some interpretations of the model incorporate 

 (i.e., when mining rewards are cut in half), suggesting that prices tend to peak between halvings and bottom out just before them.

Bitcoin Price Prediction With the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Model

Using the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Model, we can predict the following Bitcoin prices across various time frames:

It's crucial to remember that these predictions are theoretical projections based on historical trends, and should not be considered guaranteed outcomes. Financial markets are influenced by numerous factors beyond what this model can account for, including regulatory changes, technological advancements and global economic conditions.

Can the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Be Invalidated?

While the Bitcoin Power Law Theory has shown remarkable consistency with historical data, it's important to consider scenarios that could invalidate or significantly challenge the model.

Following are several factors that could lead to the theory's invalidation.

If Bitcoin's price consistently falls outside the model's predicted range (below the support line or above the resistance line) for an extended period, it would directly challenge the theory's validity. Short-term deviations are expected, but long-term divergence from the model would suggest a fundamental change in Bitcoin's growth pattern.

 could impact Bitcoin's growth trajectory. These could include:

Major global regulatory shifts affecting cryptocurrency could dramatically alter Bitcoin's adoption and price dynamics. For instance, widespread government bans or, conversely, unexpectedly favorable regulations could cause either rapid decline or growth, respectively, that the model doesn't account for.

Fundamental shifts in how Bitcoin is traded or used might alter its price behavior. Some examples include:

 could cause price movements that the model can't account for. These could arise in the form of global economic crises, geopolitical events or even Bitcoin-specific incidents, such as the hypothetical discovery of 

If Bitcoin's growth pattern shifts from a power law to another type of distribution (e.g., logarithmic or S-curve), it would invalidate the current model. This could occur if Bitcoin's adoption rate or utility fundamentally changes as it matures.

It's worth noting that Giovanni Santostasi, the creator of the Bitcoin Power Law Theory, acknowledges the model's limitations. He suggests that the model shouldn't be used for predictions beyond 2040, as potential technological singularities and other unforeseen factors could render long-term forecasts unreliable.

The potential for invalidation doesn't necessarily negate the model's current utility. Instead, it emphasizes the importance of using the Bitcoin Power Law Theory as one of many tools for analysis, rather than as an infallible predictor of future prices.

Should You Use the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Model to Predict Bitcoin’s Price?

While the Bitcoin Power Law Theory offers an intriguing perspective on Bitcoin's price movements, it's crucial to approach it cautiously when making investment decisions. Here are several key considerations to keep in mind:

Remember that, while models like the Bitcoin Power Law Theory can provide valuable insights, they aren’t infallible predictors of future performance. Says Santostasi, "There is no mechanism or explanatory power for scarcity,” meaning the Bitcoin adoption rate and market demand are still largely unpredictable.

Applying physics and statistics to cryptocurrency markets offers a unique perspective on 

. The Bitcoin Power Law Theory can help investors understand Bitcoin's long-term price trends. However, it shouldn't be the sole basis for investment decisions.

Regulatory changes, technological advancements and market sentiment can impact cryptocurrency prices in ways the model may not capture. Therefore, investors should monitor market trends, 

 and employ multiple analysis methods in order to make better-informed investment decisions.

Bitcoin Power Law Theory: Can It Be Used to Predict BTC’s Price?

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