Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Since hitting a local bottom on Mar 11, 2025, crypto asset prices have experienced a two-week rise, following a recovery above $87K for BTC and $2K for ETH. XRP remains stable, but BTC and ETH are still below their levels from the start of the year. SOL is also down for the year, despite reaching an all-time high (ATH) in January 2025 that coincided with the 

. While derivatives markets aren't bullish yet, they've reversed much of the bearish sentiment, although demand persists for puts on BTC and ETH.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

For most of this past week, perpetual open interest remained flat, reflecting a cautious risk-off sentiment across asset classes. This changed briefly with a partial spot recovery that allowed BTC to reach $88K (a two-week high), which led to slight increases in perp open interest and trade volume primarily driven by BTC. However, trade volumes are still significantly lower than at the start of the month when US president Donald Trump proposed a crypto strategic reserve for the big four tokens.

Negative funding rates point to bearish sentiment

Despite a week of lower realized volatility and positive performance among major crypto assets, funding rates for BTC and ETH contracts have remained mostly negative, indicating that short positions are paying long positions. This reflects a bearish sentiment not present in large-cap altcoins, whose funding rates have fluctuated between positive and negative without a clear directional trend.

Implied volatility levels have dropped by 3–5 points from last week, with 30-day options trading at their lowest level since the year's start. Realized volatility is nearing the 30% low established in late February. As is typical during periods of low volatility, options market activity has decreased, with open interest remaining low and balanced between puts and calls despite about $40M in weekly expirations.

Advanced

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Bybit X Block Scholes crypto derivatives analytics report (Mar 27, 2025): Cautious sentiment prevails despite price recovery

Learn about Mubarak (MUBARAK), the BNB Chain meme coin fueled by community hype and speculation over potential listings.

Mubarak (MUBARAK) is a community-driven meme coin on 

 that’s quickly gaining popularity, due to strategic community engagement and cultural branding targeted toward Middle Eastern investors. This guide explores Mubarak’s unique features, tokenomics, recent market performance and trading options.

Mubarak (MUBARAK) is a community-driven meme cryptocurrency built on BNB Chain. It was launched on the 

 Inspired by an Abu Dhabi company’s $2 billion investment in Binance, MUBARAK — which means “blessed” in Arabic — carries a unique appeal for Middle Eastern crypto markets. This targeted cultural approach distinguishes MUBARAK from other 

, giving it particular appeal in regions with growing crypto enthusiasm.

Shortly after the coin’s launch, its community quickly took control over it, guided prominently by the influential persona 

 on social media platform X. Users can also create Mubarak-themed avatars on the website, giving influential figures a dash of Middle-Eastern charm — from CZ and Portuguese soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo to beloved meme coin mascots 

. The meme coin quickly attracted attention, due to its engaging branding and strategic community management, amassing a total of 12,400 followers in just two weeks. 

What’s the source of MUBARAK’s popularity? 

MUBARAK stands out from typical meme coins, thanks to several major Binance-related events accelerating its market visibility. 

On Mar 12, 2025, Abu Dhabi investment company MGX made history by investing $2 billion in Binance. This represented the largest single investment in the whole of cryptocurrency history, signaling strong confidence in the industry. It was also a pivotal moment that firmly established the Middle East as a key player in the crypto space. Right after MGX’s mind-blowing investment, CZ tweeted several Mubarak-related posts, leading to the eventual birth of MUBARAK the very next day.

Binance Alpha, a dedicated platform for emerging and promising BNB Chain tokens, promptly listed MUBARAK on Mar 15, 2025, further validating the meme coin's potential. This integration enhanced MUBARAK's credibility, trust and market exposure, attracting a broader investor base beyond that of typical meme coin enthusiasts.

The second significant event that led to the greatest boost in its price and market cap took place when CZ personally bought 1 BNB worth of MUBARAK (around $600 at the time of purchase) on Mar 17, 2025. Both its listing and CZ’s purchase of the coin within a matter of two days pushed the coin to an all-time high (ATH) of $0.21 by Mar 18, 2025. While MUBARAK rapidly declined from its ATH to $0.13 just one day later, CZ’s cryptic endorsement for the coin briefly ignited more community excitement. 

On Mar 19, 2025, CZ sparked speculation in the Mubarak community by changing his X profile picture to feature himself wearing traditional Arab attire. The crypto community widely interpreted CZ’s subtle gesture as a potential endorsement or “hint” toward future Binance involvement. This led to a rapid increase in Mubarak's price (over 30%) within the same day as it reached $0.165 and briefly touched a $166 million market cap.

Mubarak’s straightforward and transparent tokenomics (below) are designed to foster investor confidence and community engagement.

Mubarak's simple token structure and availability on a reputable 

 (DEX) enhance accessibility, providing investors easy entry and liquidity options without relying solely on 

As of Mar 28, 2025, MUBARAK is priced at $0.096, reflecting a 55.3% decrease from its ATH of $0.21 on Mar 18, 2025, and a 237% increase from its all-time low (ATL) of $0.028 on Mar 16, 2025. It has a current market cap of $95 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $306 million.

MUBARAK’s price surged over 480% from the time of its launch, primarily due to strategic visibility from its Binance Alpha integration, speculative interest following CZ’s interactions and growing enthusiasm for meme coins in the crypto market. At its peak, MUBARAK achieved a market cap of approximately $166 million, reflecting significant investor confidence and demand.

Mubarak (MUBARAK) has quickly established itself as an influential meme coin in the crypto market, boosted significantly by strategic integrations like Binance Alpha, and speculative attention fueled by former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao’s interactions. Its unique cultural branding, particularly appealing to Middle Eastern crypto circles, has further amplified its market visibility and adoption. However, investors must approach meme coins with caution due to these assets’ speculative nature, which often leads to considerable volatility and potential risks.

If you're interested in participating in MUBARAK’s growth story, you can trade 

, where you can participate in high-risk/high-reward Perpetual contract trading with up to 12.5x leverage.

Beginner

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Mubarak (MUBARAK): Arabic-themed BNB Chain meme coin

Margin Staked SOL is a Bybit product that allows you to earn SOL staking rewards and utilize leverage of up to 2x to amplify your earnings.

 can be a great way to earn yield in crypto, and 

 (SOL) is one of the most popular blockchain platforms for doing so. However, setting up and running a Solana validator node is technically complex. Additionally, financial requirements for Solana validators are high. While the official minimum stake is just 0.01 SOL (around $1.33), in reality, a typical Solana validator needs 

 staked just to break even — an investment of about $6.66 million (as of Mar 28, 2025).

Most crypto users who would like to benefit from staking rewards on Solana simply don’t have that kind of capital. And many don’t want the hassle of setting up a full validator node.

Back in September 2024, Bybit introduced 

 (LST) that lets you earn Solana staking rewards with minimal investment, and no need to manage a validator node.

bbSOL has been a major success, allowing Bybit users to earn staking rewards without technical or financial barriers. Now, Bybit is taking it a step further with Margin Staked SOL — a new Solana staking product that utilizes bbSOL and offers leveraged borrowing to amplify the rewards.

 is a Bybit leveraged liquid staking product that’s designed to help you earn Solana staking rewards with minimal hassle.

 Using it, you can invest your SOL and Bybit will allocate the funds to Solana blockchain validators, allowing you to earn staking rewards. When you stake through Margin Staked SOL, you receive bbSOL, an LST that serves as a deposit certificate and accrues staking rewards. Unlike standard bbSOL staking, Margin Staked SOL allows you to use 

For example, if you have 100 SOL and opt for 2x leverage, the total amount committed to Solana staking will be 300 SOL — your 100 SOL principal plus the borrowed 200 SOL. You’ll pay interest (which is variable and calculated hourly) on the borrowed amount.

Bybit allocates your total staking amount through 

 (CLOUD), Solana's leading liquid staking solution. Sanctum's 

 distributes staked funds across multiple validators to optimize the total yield.

The key advantage of Margin Staked SOL is its capacity to amplify staking rewards through leverage. In addition, you don't need to handle the technical complexities of running a Solana validator. The minimum investment required is just 0.5 SOL (around $70), drastically lower than the millions of dollars needed to run a profitable validator node in Solana's highly competitive staking ecosystem.

Upon committing your funds to Margin Staked SOL, you’ll receive the bbSOL LST. All staking rewards accrue in this asset, and you can redeem your investment at any time by exchanging bbSOL for your original SOL. After deducting interest on the borrowed funds, you’ll receive your SOL, along with all the accrued rewards. bbSOL accumulates rewards every time a Solana epoch is completed, typically taking 2–3 days.

As an LST, bbSOL normally allows you to keep your original SOL locked while using the liquid token across the Solana 

 (DeFi) ecosystem, and within Bybit products like On-Chain Earn, Bybit Savings and Crypto Loans. However, when bbSOL is issued via Margin Staked SOL, it must remain locked, and cannot be used in other Bybit or DeFi products. It acts solely as your deposit confirmation, and continues accruing rewards until you withdraw from Solana staking via Margin Staked SOL.

Interest on the borrowed funds within Margin Staked SOL is calculated hourly, with any duration under one hour rounded up to a full hour. The interest rate is variable, and updates every hour. You can check the current rate in your account under 

Rewards in Margin Staked SOL aren’t distributed immediately. Instead, they accumulate in your bbSOL, and can be redeemed at any time alongside your SOL principal investment. Bybit provides two redemption options for bbSOL:

If your PnL position declines beyond a certain level during staking, Bybit will send you a margin call notification via email, prompting you to either redeem your investment or contribute more SOL. If your PnL drops even further, an automatic stop-loss transaction will be triggered to redeem your funds and cover the loan and accrued interest. These measures are designed to protect you from unexpected losses.

Besides Margin Staked SOL, Bybit also offers another product for those who would like to earn yields from hassle-free decentralized staking: 

. There are three key differences between the two products: 

1) Unlike On-Chain Earn, Margin Staked SOL allows you to use leverage, amplifying your potential returns and risks. 

2) On-Chain Earn creates opportunities for staking on several blockchains, while Margin Staked SOL is a solution that’s designed exclusively for Solana staking.

3) Staked assets in On-Chain Earn can be withdrawn and utilized in their respective blockchain ecosystems, whereas the bbSOL from Margin Staked SOL is locked solely for yield generation, and cannot be used elsewhere. 

How to get started with Margin Staked SOL

Here’s how to get started with staking your SOL.

: In your account’s navigation pane, click on 

: On the left side, you’ll see the APR chart for the product, containing information on the Net APR; the trend over the past 1,7 or 30 days; and the highest and lowest Net APRs over a selected time period.

: On the right side, you can set options for your Margin Staked SOL (the leverage ratio and the SOL amount to transfer from your main account). You’ll see the amount of automatically calculated bbSOL you’ll receive, total borrowed amount and estimated daily yield.

to view a detailed breakdown of your bbSOL holdings. Then, click on either

: On the confirmation pop-up window, enter the amount of bbSOL you wish to redeem, or click on 

to redeem your full balance. Review the details, then click on

 to proceed, depending upon your earlier choice. 

to finalize your redemption on the redemption confirmation pop-up. Your redeemed SOL will be sent to your 

Until Apr 4, 2025, 10AM UTC, you can also take advantage of Bybit’s 

 campaign that’s dedicated to the Margin Staked SOL product. This campaign lets you earn up to 10 Lucky Draw tickets, each guaranteeing at least a 1 USDT 

, with a chance to win up to 100 USDT. In order to participate in the campaign, you must register for the event and complete a series of tasks as follows:

Bybit’s Margin Staked SOL allows you to earn Solana staking rewards without the hassle of setting up and running a validator node — all via your account’s easy-to-use interface. The leverage option is also a great way to multiply your rewards. Moreover, the minimum investment is minuscule, especially compared to running a Solana validator, and there are two easy redemption options — and all of these benefits without needing to interact with the underlying Solana blockchain!

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Bybit Margin Staked SOL: Unlock higher yields with less effort

Animoca Brands has partnered with Soneium, Sony’s Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain, to develop Moca Network’s identity layer and launch anime initiatives on Soneium.

The S&P 500 fell 0.33% as tariffs and inflation concerns weighed on markets, with energy, tech, and communication sectors leading losses. Gold hit a record $3,059 as Trump’s tariffs fueled trade war fears, boosting safe-haven demand. The Coindesk Indices, which tracks the broader crypto market, are down by 1.01%, with Bitcoin up by 0.55% and Ether down by 0.18% in the past 24 hours. Trade these markets and more with up to 500x leverage on Bybit MT5 using this 

Today's top performer is CARV, up 9.2%, as it expands globally and redefines data ownership.

CARV (CARV), founded in 2022, is a modular data layer empowering users to control their data, enhancing privacy for gaming and AI systems through its CARV Protocol and ecosystem platforms. 

, advancing AI, gaming, and data ownership with its SVM Chain, which ensures privacy, scalability, and interoperability between Ethereum and Solana. With listings on Tokocrypto and Mercado Bitcoin, CARV is targeting Southeast Asia and Latin America, where users can better control and monetize their data. The $CARV token powers governance, gas fees, and incentives, fostering a user-owned data economy. Strategic partnerships with Kite AI and ARPA enhance AI intelligence, verifiable randomness, and blockchain security.

Check out the latest prices, charts, and data of 

, Sony’s Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain, to develop Moca Network’s identity layer and launch anime initiatives on Soneium. Moca Network’s AIR SDK will integrate into Soneium, enabling decentralized identity (DID) and reputation features, starting with San FranTokyo’s Anime ID. This collaboration aims to onboard anime fans to blockchain-powered experiences and enhance engagement across anime, gaming, and Web3. Sony’s Soneium, developed by Sony Block Solutions Labs and Startale Group, seeks to merge creativity and technology, while Animoca Brands’ partnership strengthens the digital identity infrastructure for an interconnected Web3 ecosystem.

Yesterday, BTC spot ETFs saw $85M in inflows, all from non-GBTC funds.

, allowing users to earn Fragments through Galxe and Zealy quests, potentially qualifying for an airdrop. Participants must complete quests, connect wallets, and use a referral code. Points update weekly, and the program may be limited in duration.

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Animoca Brands and Sony’s Soneium partner to enhance digital identity and anime experiences in Web3

Crypto

Bitcoin

Bitcoin halving has historically fueled bull runs. But will this be the case in the spring of 2024? 

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Bitcoin halving has historically fueled bull runs. But will this be the case in the spring of 2024? Before we dive into the debate, let's look at the timeline of the next Bitcoin halving to see how we might maximize investment opportunities.

Bitcoin halving occurs after the mining of every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years, reducing by half the number of bitcoins rewarded for verifying one block of transactions. Miners were originally awarded 50 BTC per block before the first halving event in 2012. Thus, the three subsequent halvings have resulted in a current block reward of 6.25 bitcoins. This process limits Bitcoin supply, which increases scarcity, potentially driving up its value.

The first halving took place on November 28, 2012, so that miners were awarded 25 BTC per block mined. After the second halving on July 9, 2016, the reward was reduced to 12.5 BTC per block mined. On May 11, 2020, the most recent halving yielded a reward of 6.25 BTC, and the next halving event will occur in 2024. Subsequent halvings will continue until the last of 21 million bitcoins has been fully mined, estimated to be sometime in 2140.

The concept of halving Bitcoin was introduced as part of the original 

, used primarily to control and reduce the supply of new Bitcoin entering market circulation. With a capped total supply of BTC, no entities, governments, authorities or central banks can create more Bitcoin. As a result, the idea of supply and demand economics comes into play.

Nevertheless, the Bitcoin protocol was designed this way for various reasons. Let's explore some of them.

Bitcoin total supply is capped, and the protocol was designed to control the issuance of new Bitcoin into the market. Each halving event helps slow the issuance process to keep the coin's value stable and valuable over the long term. 

Essentially, since halving reduces the number of new BTC generated per block, it maintains steady demand and leads to a higher value for Bitcoin — a deflationary asset.

Halving has a palpable impact on the Bitcoin ecosystem. When the Bitcoin reward is halved, miners may perceive that their operations won’t be profitable anymore, due to the rising costs associated with them. Still, there are some miners who see this as an opportunity to increase their operations because it will reduce competition from less productive miners.

Regardless, the speed at which a Bitcoin block is mined won’t be affected. The protocol 

 that’s resistant to changes in mining dynamics, so the difficulty of verifying a transaction is maintained at a steady rate.

Following is an overview of the three previous Bitcoin halving events:

, the next Bitcoin halving will occur within 234 days of this article's publish date, with an estimated ETA of April 16, 2024. The data shows 35,223 blocks remain to be mined.

What Happened in the Last Bitcoin Halving?

When analyzing past post-halving booms, it’s clear that they’ve created increased volatility around Bitcoin. The chart below shows Bitcoin’s inflation rate, indicating that for each halving this rate is lowered as the total number of issued bitcoins increases.

This statistic implies that these payments reduce the influx of new Bitcoin to enter circulation, which introduces supply and demand economics into the system.

In 2011, the inflation rate of Bitcoin was at 50%, falling sharply to 12%. After the subsequent halving in 2012, it further declined to a range between 4–5% by 2016 (and 1.74% as of today). Based on the history, each halving event that’s taken place has triggered a surge in market activity. As the inflation rate continues, each of these halvings have increased the value of BTC, inciting an upward price trend for BTC.

Here's an overview of BTC price performance, both pre- and post-Bitcoin halving:

Although bull runs may not occur immediately, it’s historically been proven that Bitcoin halving triggers market volatility slightly pre- or post-event.

How Will the 2024 Bitcoin Halving Affect Bitcoin's Price?

 (the amount of power miners use to validate transactions on the blockchain) has historically fluctuated. On May 3, 2020, less than two weeks before the third Bitcoin halving, it 

The higher the hash rate and mining reward, the more secure the Bitcoin network. Thus, it’s increasingly difficult for rogues to launch a 

 (controlling over 50% of the network's mining hash rate). However, a higher hash rate also means it's harder to mine new blocks, thus making it more difficult to create new Bitcoin.

Higher mining difficulty requires miners to buy more sophisticated equipment to mine cost-effectively — and forces miners who can't afford to do so out of the industry. This was the case in the aftermath of the last two halvings. It has previously taken miners up to a year to acquire more sophisticated mining equipment , and it’s expected to take a similar amount of time in 2024. In the meantime, the hash rate is expected to decrease.

As the hash rate once again increases with the acquisition of new mining hardware, miners will hold onto their bitcoins in anticipation of selling them off during the bullish price spikes that will occur as a cumulative effect. These price spikes occurred around a year or so after the previous three halvings, most noticeably last time during the legendary bull run of 2021.

 In the short term, up and down spikes in both the hash rate and price of Bitcoin seem inevitable. Let’s look at a couple of expert perspectives on what occurs as a result of Bitcoin halving events.

Key Figures Weigh In on the Bitcoin Halving

With the Bitcoin halving fast approaching, we believe a short-term pullback is highly likely immediately post-halving, as traders begin taking profits.

— Bitcoin researcher Lennard Neo, quoted 

The halving has been on everyone's radar screen for a long time and as such, the effect on markets should already be factored into the price of BTC. The halving may affect the profitability of some miners, but we expect at this point that every miner has already adjusted their business models.

Scott Freeman, co-founder of financial services firm JST Capital, speaking to 

 [Note: Many within the crypto world disagree, asserting it's impossible for the halving event’s price on markets to have already been priced in.]

Making money from Bitcoin (BTC) halving is possible. However, it isn’t guaranteed, and it comes with risks.

Traders make money during BTC halvings through speculation and investment. If you believe that the price of Bitcoin will rise due to the halving event, you can potentially invest in BTC before the halving and sell after the cryptocurrency's price rises. The logic is simple: as the reward for miners drops, the supply of new bitcoins decreases. With fewer new BTC entering circulation, demand may stay the same or continue to rise, potentially increasing Bitcoin's price.

For example, after the 2016 halving the price of Bitcoin went from around $650 to $2,518 within a year. Similarly, after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin increased in value from $8,750 to approximately $30,000 by the end of the year, and then skyrocketed to nearly $65,000 in April 2021.

However, it's important to note that many factors influence Bitcoin's price, and halving is just one of them. Other factors include market demand, investor sentiment, regulatory news and macroeconomic factors. Therefore, while Bitcoin halvings historically have often led to price increases, it’s not guaranteed to happen every time. As the saying goes, 

Since the Bitcoin halving is expected to take place in 2024, there’s still time for traders to speculate on asset prices. In the meantime, one of the easiest ways to trade Bitcoin is to invest in options or spot trading. 

Alternatively, investors can invest in derivatives to speculate on Bitcoin price movements without actually owning the underlying coins. 

 exist similarly to Bitcoin futures in the form of derivatives. These contracts essentially give investors or traders the right to buy or sell Bitcoin at a given price and specific expiration date without owning the underlying asset. Depending upon a trader's analysis, they can choose to execute a call option, in which they buy an agreed-upon amount of Bitcoin at a particular price and date. Alternatively, they can opt for a put option that gives the contract owner the right to sell Bitcoin at an agreed-upon price at a predetermined time. 

Bitcoin options trading is seen as a preferred mode of accumulating or buying Bitcoin because the cost incurred only involves the premium. This gives traders leverage to take on more speculative positions, regardless of price swings and market movement. 

 before the next Bitcoin halving through a direct purchase of the asset on a crypto exchange. There are plenty of ways a user can get their hands on BTC via direct purchase, using their credit card or bank transfers. 

Alternatively, some traders prefer to buy or exchange one crypto asset for another on the spot market. For example, purchasing BTC/USDT on the spot market involves an immediate purchase or exchange of USDT to BTC at current market rates. 

 involves buyers and sellers exchanging an underlying crypto asset at a predetermined price and date. Traders can bet on the price movement of cryptocurrencies without owning them.

Bitcoin Halving 2024: When Is the Next Bitcoin Halving?

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