Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report dives into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

The U.S. presidential election is creating a volatility premium for options expiring after Nov 5, 2024. While longer-term volatility smiles have consistently favored out-of-the-money (OTM) calls, short-term options have recently mirrored this trend. This suggests that the decline in spot prices at the end of September hasn’t significantly dampened sentiment in the derivatives markets.

Please check out some of the report’s highlights.

Futures Activities Subdued After Month-End Expiration

Spot price volatility leading up to the Sep 27, 2024 futures expiration resulted in the highest trading volumes in futures contracts in over a month. This surge was primarily focused on BTC contracts, reflecting a trend we've seen throughout much of the market's recent history. The expiration of a substantial quarterly contract at the end of September caused a decline in open interest, as not all traders opted to roll their positions into later expirations. Consequently, futures activity is currently much lower compared to that in perpetual swap markets.

While the expiration of the September contract led to a significant drop in futures open interest, the effect on perpetual swap contract markets was comparatively mild. Although we observed a decline in perpetual open interest at the end of the month, this was likely due to the closure of long positions as spot prices retreated toward the lower end of their recent range. 

This shift halts an upward trend in open interest that had been approaching all-time highs, but it doesn’t indicate a major decline — especially considering the high trading volumes recorded over the last two days of the month.

BTC ATM Implied Volatility Falls Sharply Since Fed Rate Cut

Positioning in BTC options markets continues to be heavily influenced by the U.S. election narrative. This is most evident in the term structure, which indicates significantly higher volatility expectations following the election, while short-term options are trading at much lower levels. The rise in implied volatility for these shorter tenors contrasts with the recent decline in actual volatility, which has reached lows for the month as spot prices remain relatively stable. 

Over the past week, trade volumes have mirrored this shifting sentiment, showing similar activity in both puts and calls. However, neither trade volumes nor open interest levels have surpassed recent figures, reflecting the range-bound nature of BTC spot prices, which remain influenced by broader macroeconomic factors.

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BlockSholves X Bybit Tech Report

Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Oct 2, 2024): Positive Sentiment Persists Following Recent Decline in Spot Prices

Sui has made history as the first blockchain to adopt SCION, a secure alternative to the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP), which protects against Internet routing attacks.

The SPX index was up by 0.01%, with energy, technology, and financial sectors performing well, while consumer discretionary, staples, and communication services lagging. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also remained in focus. Coindesk Indices, an index measuring broader cryptocurrency market performance was down by 1.56%, with Bitcoin and Ether dropping by 2.48% and by 2.65%, respectively in the past 24 hours.

Today's top performer is W, which surged 10.1% following the launch of Wormholescan v2, featuring enhanced multichain data and developer tools.

Wormhole (W), launched in 2020, is a cross-chain protocol that facilitates communication and token transfers across over 30 blockchain networks. Originally a crypto bridge between Solana and Ethereum, it has expanded to include features like the Portal token bridge and messaging protocols, serving as a comprehensive platform for cross-chain interactions. 

, providing enhanced real-time multichain data for the Wormhole ecosystem. New features include token, chain, and protocol analysis, a governor dashboard, a dedicated analytics page, and a developer section with a VAA parser. Users can explore these updates at 

Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data of 

Sui has made history as the first blockchain to adopt SCION, a secure alternative to the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP), which protects against Internet routing attacks. SCION addresses security flaws in BGP that have led to significant problems on other networks by preventing malicious traffic rerouting. With SCION, Sui enhances network resilience, safeguards validators from hijacking and DDoS attacks, and boosts performance with reduced latency. This integration solidifies Sui's position as a top blockchain for secure, critical infrastructure applications, maintaining 100% uptime since launching its mainnet.

Yesterday, the total flow for BTC spot ETFs was -$39.2 million, with no flow for GBTC and a negative flow of $39.2 million for non-GBTC ETFs.

, allowing users to earn test XTM and Gems. To participate, users need to download the app via the provided link, install it, and mine tXTM to earn 25 Gems per 1 tXTM mined. More Gems lead to a larger Tari airdrop.

Beginner

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Sui Integrates SCION to Pioneer Blockchain Security Against Internet Routing Attacks

Eigenpie (EGP) is the ETH liquid restaking platform on EigenLayer enabling ETH and LST holders to earn rewards from multiple protocols while maintaining liquidity through liquid restaking tokens (LRTs).

, token holders are required to lock away their tokens for a long time through the 

 (PoS) consensus mechanism on the platform. While this structure helps keep the network liquid and secure, it’s a bit rigid regarding capital efficiency.

To counter this limitation, liquid staking protocols such as 

, which allows staked ETH to be used for other 

 (DeFi) activities, earning token holders extra rewards by issuing liquid staking tokens (LSTs).

However, liquid staking only allows assets to be staked in a single PoS blockchain. This limitation has led to the development of 

. It allows you to use staked assets to secure and earn rewards from multiple protocols through the use of 

One of the liquid restaking protocols operating on EigenLayer is Eigenpie, which lets you stake your staked assets to node operators in exchange for LRTs so you can earn rewards.

Let's examine Eigenpie more closely to see how it’s shaping the liquid restacking narrative in the DeFi ecosystem.

Eigenpie is a liquid restaking protocol within the EigenLayer ecosystem that allows you to earn passive income from both Ethereum staking and EigenLayer restaking while maintaining your assets’ liquidity through the use of LRTs. 

 ecosystem, Eigenpie aims to provide more utility for ETH holders in line with the broader vision of EigenLayer via liquid restaking.

As a native ETH holder or liquid staking participant, you can deposit your assets on Eigenpie, which then restakes them to node validators on EigenLayer. The node validators will then use these assets to power new 

 (AVS) on EigenLayer, allowing you as a token holder to earn extra rewards while maintaining liquid positions. Eigenpie has integrated with various DeFi platforms that let you use your LRTs to explore other yield-earning DeFi opportunities while accumulating Eigenpie points that qualify you for the EGP 

EigenLayer is an Ethereum restaking protocol designed to enhance the capital efficiency of your staked ETH by restaking it across different protocols. As a support layer for the Ethereum network, EigenLayer has a set of node validators who temporarily stake assets and verify transactions securely. Users who delegate their tokens to these node validators receive LRTs, which earn them rewards without unlocking their staked positions.

EigenLayer operates a system of AVS that allows projects such as sidechains, 

 to connect to its liquid restaking token protocols in order to secure their platforms without running full nodes.

As a novel isolated liquid restaking platform of EigenLayer, Eigenpie’s distinctive features include the following.

Eigenpie offers an innovative approach to liquid restaking by offering isolated liquid restaking tokens exclusive to a particular ETH LST. This isolates the risk to only the specific token staked on Eigenpie, and not any other ETH LST’s performance. This feature not only ensures that liquid restaking on Eigenpie is security-focused, but also offers an optimal restaking experience, especially to risk-averse LST holders. Below is a chart with the isolated liquid restaking tokens available on Eigenpie.

Eigenpie also offers isolated native restaking in collaboration with 

, an open-source ETH staking network that uses 

 (SSV) technology to create a decentralized and secure environment for ETH staking by splitting a validator key into several keyshares, which are distributed to multiple nodes. The isolated native restaking feature on Eigenpie allows ETH holders to connect their ETH to the website and restake it through a simple user interface. Once it’s restaked, ETH holders receive egETH tokens that earn them 2x Eigenpie points, resulting in better yields over time.

Eigenpie Enterprise, a restaking feature on Eigenpie designed for institutional grade investors, 

 that are designed to accommodate different enterprises, depending upon their needs.

The first version allows enterprises to participate in native restaking, liquid restaking and DeFi protocols only within the Eigenpie ecosystem in order to reduce their risk of bad debt. Meanwhile, the second version enables institutions to expand their positions from their existing EigenLayer holdings into the Eigenpie Institution Node Delegator, which opens them to more DeFi opportunities since they can deposit their LRTs in their preferred DeFi platform.

Eigenpie Token (EGP) is the governance and reward-earning 

 on Eigenpie. It's designed to ensure the sustainability and long-term success of Eigenpie as a restaking platform. As an EGP holder, you can lock your tokens to receive vlEGP tokens (at a 1:1 ratio) that can then be used to participate in Eigenpie's governance, and to earn rewards for active participation in the ecosystem. 

 EGP has a total supply of 10 million tokens, distributed as shown below:

Eigenpie's airdrop is reserved for holders who accumulate Eigenpie points through user engagement, and for 

 users from Binance and OKX. To accumulate Eigenpie points, users need to remain active on the platform by depositing LSTs. In short, 1 ETH worth of LST deposits on the platform earns you one point per hour. You can also earn points through referral, whereby your additional points are proportionate to the points earned by your referee.

You can buy EGP on Bybit's Spot trading platform. The token is listed as the 

 trading pair. Trading EGP on Bybit's user-friendly terminal is fast and efficient, and comes with 24-hour multilingual customer support.

The liquid restaking concept in cryptocurrency continues to proliferate, since it provides capital-efficient utility for ETH holders. Since Eigenpie is a top protocol on EigenLayer, ETH and LST holders can leverage its features, such as isolated liquid restaking and native restaking, to earn additional passive income from their staked assets.

Furthermore, institutional enterprises can leverage Eigenpie’s platform to access a wide range of DeFi opportunities by using their staked assets. The protocol offers liquid restaking services, and is thus timely as investors continue to explore DeFi opportunities in the crypto market.

Intermediate

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Eigenpie (EGP): ETH Liquid Restaking Powered by EigenLayer

Mumu the Bull is a meme coin built on the Solana blockchain. Learn more about how it works in this article.

 are two of the most iconic. Of the two imposing quadrupeds used to describe general market trends, almost everyone hopes for a bull market, in which prices soar. The crypto project known as Mumu the Bull has taken this classic concept and turned it into a 

. By combining internet trends from around the globe, Mumu the Bull hopes to create the next big thing. Is Mumu the Bull popular right now, and will its price increase in the future? Explore this guide to find out.

 blockchain. Its marketing ties together cartoon animal imagery, similarly to 

, with crypto memes about bull markets. This coin is also known for its competition with the Bobo the Bear meme coin.

According to Mumu the Bull’s creators, the coin’s primary goals are to unite the crypto world by including references to several beloved memes within the crypto universe, and to encourage countless users to trade its coin. In addition to references to bull and bear markets, Mumu the Bull endeavors to capitalize on familiarity with Pepe the Frog meme coins. It uses similar art and occasionally includes cartoon frogs in its memes. Eventually, 

 it will be able to use these playful references to become "the meme coin to rule them all." 

Some crypto investors also believe that Mumu the Bull can function as a market sentiment tracker. Its creators have set up Mumu the Bull to compete with Bobo the Bear. Therefore, some users hope that they’ll be able to predict a bull-vs.-bear crypto market by considering which of the two cryptos has a higher price and/or trading volume.

The Mumu the Bull meme coin project is built on the Solana blockchain. Thus, instead of running its own ledger, it uses the underlying security of Solana to validate and track each transaction. While Solana handles the back end, Mumu the Bull's team is focused on promoting the token. They’ve created multiple social media sites, and spend a lot of time generating memes and artwork surrounding the coin. This allows them to get their coin into the public consciousness, so more crypto enthusiasts will be interested in buying it.

 that automatically removes 0.25% of tokens from the liquidity pool for each sale that’s made. This has resulted in a current total supply of 2.324 trillion tokens. Of the total supply, 95% has been allocated toward liquidity. These tokens quickly ended up being bought and sold on the open market. The remaining 5% of tokens were distributed to the Mumu the Bull team to compensate them for their work.

Initially, the MUMU token struggled to gain attention after its release, trading at roughly $0.000005. However, several months after its launch, Mumu the Bull took the crypto world by storm. Prices suddenly doubled, and then doubled again. By Jul 29, 2024, MUMU had reached an all-time high (ATH) of $0.00012. 

Despite a drop in price from its ATH, Mumu the Bull has still managed to retain popularity. MUMU is currently within the 

 by market cap and among the top 500 cryptocurrencies overall. Furthermore, MUMU’s 24-hour trading volume is $9.87 million (as of Oct 2, 2024), and its price is still up, roughly 1,257% from its ATL. 

This pricing history reveals a lot about the popularity of Mumu the Bull. Instead of following the trend of many meme coins, with a brief spike in interest followed by obscurity, Mumu the Bull has experienced a slow yet steady rise in trading. This coin has gone from an underrated novelty to an iconic meme coin in the 2024 market. Particularly when the market is dealing with bull conditions, Mumu the Bull is trading very well.

MUMU tokens are primarily available through 

 (DEXs). The creators of Mumu the Bull suggest that people purchase MUMU by purchasing Solana tokens, and then swapping Solana for MUMU tokens on a DEX. 

However, if you prefer a more convenient way to invest in MUMU, consider purchasing Mumu the Bull tokens as a Perpetual contract. To get started, you’ll first need to create a Bybit account, then fund it with cryptocurrency and navigate to the 

If you're looking for a diverse portfolio filled with meme coins, the MUMU token is a promising option. Its price is currently low enough that it's not overinflated, yet it's still seeing a lot of trading activity. Thanks to its proximity to the Pepe the Frog universe, Mumu the Bull seems likely to keep its audience interested for some time.

However, this probably isn't a meme coin that's going to turn anyone into a millionaire overnight. While it's performing reasonably well, nothing about the coin indicates an imminent drastic increase in value. It's likely to undergo both small price increases and decreases in the future. Due to the inherent volatility of meme coins, investors need to exercise some caution when purchasing Mumu the Bull. Never overextend yourself financially, and make sure you 

Ultimately, Mumu the Bull is a promising addition to the world of meme coins. By focusing on classic memes about market conditions, it's managed to attract an audience and increase its prices. However, Mumu the Bull has a lot of competition, so only time will tell if this token can become a top meme coin.

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Mumu the Bull (MUMU): A Symbol of the Bull Run Moovement

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Bitcoin

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory is a mathematical model proposing that Bitcoin's price follows a power law distribution over time. Learn more here.

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Bitcoin's meteoric rise has positioned it as 

 that challenges traditional financial markets and captures investors' imaginations worldwide. But in a market known for volatility, how can we accurately forecast Bitcoin's price?

This article reviews one novel approach that could help us answer that question: the Bitcoin Power Law Theory (BPLT). We'll explore how this mathematical model works, its potential for predicting Bitcoin's price, its limitations and what the model indicates about Bitcoin's future.

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory is a mathematical model which proposes that Bitcoin's price follows a power law distribution over time. It uses logarithmic scales and regression analysis to predict long-term price trends, similar to patterns observed in natural phenomena.

How Does the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Work?

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory operates on the principle that Bitcoin's price follows a power law distribution. In physics, power laws describe relationships in which a relative change in one quantity results in a proportional relative change in another.

By applying this principle to Bitcoin, Giovanni Santostasi, BPLT’s creator, has hypothesized that Bitcoin behaves more like a physical system that follows a predictable pattern over time. Here's a detailed breakdown of how the theory works:

Estimated Price = A * (days from Genesis Block)

The BPLT suggests that this power law relationship extends beyond just price. Santostasi observed similar power law behaviors in other Bitcoin metrics, such as the growth of 

 (computing power of the network) and the new wallet address creation rate.

It's important to note that while the model provides a framework for long-term 

, it doesn't account for short-term volatility or external factors that could influence Bitcoin's price. The theory assumes that over long periods, these fluctuations average out, revealing an underlying growth pattern governed by the power law.

How to Interpret the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Model

Interpreting the Bitcoin Power Law Theory model requires understanding its key components and what they represent. The following is a guide to reading and utilizing the model.

As the central line of the model, the linear regression line represents the "fair value" of Bitcoin according to the power law. It's derived from the best fit of historical data, and serves as the primary predictive tool. When Bitcoin's price is close to this line, it can be considered at its expected value based on the model.

Located below the regression line, the support line represents the lower boundary of Bitcoin's predicted price range. Bitcoin's price rarely falls below this line for extended periods, so some investors see any dips toward this line as a buying opportunity.

Positioned above the regression line, the resistance line indicates the upper boundary of Bitcoin's expected price range. Consequently, price approaches to this line often signal potential selling or shorting opportunities for traders.

To use the model, compare Bitcoin's current price to these three lines as follows:

The overall slope of these lines provides insight into Bitcoin's long-term growth trajectory. A steeper slope suggests faster growth over time, while a shallower slope indicates slower growth.

The space between the support and resistance lines offers a potential price range for Bitcoin at any given future date. Due to increasing uncertainty in long-term forecasts, this range grows wider as predictions extend further into the future.

Some interpretations of the model incorporate 

 (i.e., when mining rewards are cut in half), suggesting that prices tend to peak between halvings and bottom out just before them.

Bitcoin Price Prediction With the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Model

Using the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Model, we can predict the following Bitcoin prices across various time frames:

It's crucial to remember that these predictions are theoretical projections based on historical trends, and should not be considered guaranteed outcomes. Financial markets are influenced by numerous factors beyond what this model can account for, including regulatory changes, technological advancements and global economic conditions.

Can the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Be Invalidated?

While the Bitcoin Power Law Theory has shown remarkable consistency with historical data, it's important to consider scenarios that could invalidate or significantly challenge the model.

Following are several factors that could lead to the theory's invalidation.

If Bitcoin's price consistently falls outside the model's predicted range (below the support line or above the resistance line) for an extended period, it would directly challenge the theory's validity. Short-term deviations are expected, but long-term divergence from the model would suggest a fundamental change in Bitcoin's growth pattern.

 could impact Bitcoin's growth trajectory. These could include:

Major global regulatory shifts affecting cryptocurrency could dramatically alter Bitcoin's adoption and price dynamics. For instance, widespread government bans or, conversely, unexpectedly favorable regulations could cause either rapid decline or growth, respectively, that the model doesn't account for.

Fundamental shifts in how Bitcoin is traded or used might alter its price behavior. Some examples include:

 could cause price movements that the model can't account for. These could arise in the form of global economic crises, geopolitical events or even Bitcoin-specific incidents, such as the hypothetical discovery of 

If Bitcoin's growth pattern shifts from a power law to another type of distribution (e.g., logarithmic or S-curve), it would invalidate the current model. This could occur if Bitcoin's adoption rate or utility fundamentally changes as it matures.

It's worth noting that Giovanni Santostasi, the creator of the Bitcoin Power Law Theory, acknowledges the model's limitations. He suggests that the model shouldn't be used for predictions beyond 2040, as potential technological singularities and other unforeseen factors could render long-term forecasts unreliable.

The potential for invalidation doesn't necessarily negate the model's current utility. Instead, it emphasizes the importance of using the Bitcoin Power Law Theory as one of many tools for analysis, rather than as an infallible predictor of future prices.

Should You Use the Bitcoin Power Law Theory Model to Predict Bitcoin’s Price?

While the Bitcoin Power Law Theory offers an intriguing perspective on Bitcoin's price movements, it's crucial to approach it cautiously when making investment decisions. Here are several key considerations to keep in mind:

Remember that, while models like the Bitcoin Power Law Theory can provide valuable insights, they aren’t infallible predictors of future performance. Says Santostasi, "There is no mechanism or explanatory power for scarcity,” meaning the Bitcoin adoption rate and market demand are still largely unpredictable.

Applying physics and statistics to cryptocurrency markets offers a unique perspective on 

. The Bitcoin Power Law Theory can help investors understand Bitcoin's long-term price trends. However, it shouldn't be the sole basis for investment decisions.

Regulatory changes, technological advancements and market sentiment can impact cryptocurrency prices in ways the model may not capture. Therefore, investors should monitor market trends, 

 and employ multiple analysis methods in order to make better-informed investment decisions.

Bitcoin Power Law Theory: Can It Be Used to Predict BTC’s Price?

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