Gold is projected to surpass $3,000 per ounce in 2025, driven by strong macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

At the heart of gold's potential surge is the current macroeconomic landscape that’s characterized by persistent inflation and anticipated monetary policy shifts. Inflation rates in the U.S. are expected to remain above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, creating an environment in which gold is expected to serve as a crucial hedge against currency devaluation. When inflation erodes purchasing power, investors often turn to gold to preserve their wealth.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve has signaled a shift toward monetary easing, with market expectations indicating potential interest rate cuts in the coming months. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it a more attractive investment as compared to interest-bearing assets, such as bonds and savings accounts. With real interest rates projected to remain low or even go negative, gold could experience renewed demand as a safe store of value.

Geopolitical tensions further bolster gold’s appeal. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the strained U.S.-China relationship and the Russia-Ukraine war, create an atmosphere of uncertainty that drives investors toward safe-haven assets. During times of geopolitical instability, gold has historically seen increased demand as investors seek to mitigate risks associated with market volatility.

As global tensions escalate, the demand for gold is likely to rise, reinforcing its status as a reliable hedge against financial instability. Investors tend to flock to gold during crises, viewing it as a secure asset that retains its intrinsic value, especially when other markets are under pressure.

Another significant factor contributing to the bullish outlook for gold is the unprecedented demand from central banks around the world. In 2024, central banks collectively purchased over 1,000 metric tons of gold, marking one of the highest levels of accumulation in recent history. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, particularly among countries like China and Russia that are actively reducing their reliance on U.S. dollar reserves as part of a broader de-dollarization strategy.

This central bank buying provides a strong structural support for gold prices, minimizing downside risks. As these institutions accumulate more gold, the resulting scarcity in the market could lead to higher prices. The growing demand from central banks underscores the renewed confidence in gold as a strategic reserve asset, especially amidst economic volatility and geopolitical tensions.

From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a robust uptrend, trading above key moving averages and nearing critical resistance levels. If gold successfully breaks through the psychological barrier of $3,000 per ounce, momentum could carry it toward higher price targets, potentially reaching $3,200 or even $3,500. 

, such as relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD), suggest that gold remains in a bullish phase, indicating further upside potential.

As gold approaches these key resistance points, technical traders will closely monitor its price movements. A successful breach of the $3,000 level could trigger momentum buying, propelling prices higher as investor confidence grows.

Finally, rising investor sentiment plays a crucial role in gold’s potential price surge. Increased inflows into gold-backed 

 (ETFs), in addition to speculative positioning in futures markets, reflect strong confidence among both retail and institutional investors. As ETF holdings rise, it signals renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven investment.

This optimism is bolstered by a general shift in market sentiment as investors are increasingly turning to gold amid concerns over economic stability and inflation. The combination of robust technical indicators, macroeconomic pressures and favorable investor sentiment positions gold favorably for a significant price increase in 2025.

In summary, gold is well-positioned to reach $3,000 per ounce in 2025, driven by a combination of persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank demand and positive technical indicators. As investors seek refuge in safe-haven assets, gold’s intrinsic value and historical performance during times of crisis will make it an attractive option for preserving wealth. The confluence of these factors suggests that gold's upward trajectory could continue, making 2025 a pivotal year for this precious metal.

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Bybit Commodity Insight Report: Why Gold Is Poised to Reach $3,000 in 2025

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, as well as futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Macro headwinds are impacting the crypto market, with a sell-off that began over the weekend deepening this week. BTC, ETH and most altcoins are declining alongside equities, gold and treasury yields, though derivatives markets are showing little bearish sentiment or increased volatility expectations. Among perpetuals, there are record consistent positive rates across most markets, indicating a reset in positioning. Meanwhile, ETH retains a volatility premium over BTC, but its term structure hasn’t inverted as sharply as in earlier sell-offs this month.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Funding Rates Largely Positive Amid Sell-Off

Despite risk-off sentiment across asset classes this weekend and early this past week, USDT-denominated perpetual contracts have shown their most consistently positive funding rates within the past month. While these rates haven't reached the bullish levels of early December 2024, most have returned to a neutral level of 0.01%, signaling a reset in positioning due to recent market movements.

Tuesday's intensified risk-off sell-off led to a significant spike in BTC put trade volume as traders hedged against further declines. Unlike ETH, which leans bullish on calls, BTC's open interest is balanced between upside and downside protection. The volatility term structure is flat again, typical during sharp market moves, but this reflects a decline in longer-dated options, rather than a rise in short-term expectations.

As the sell-off in risk-on assets deepened this past week, ETH outperformed BTC. ETH derivatives markets are showing stronger sentiment, with higher call trade volumes indicating greater demand for upside positioning as compared to puts. However, ETH's volatility term structure has inverted more sharply than BTC's, as seen in previous significant market moves since last November (2024), with front-end volatility levels 15 points above those of BTC options with a similar tenor.

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Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Feb 26, 2025): Reset in Sentiment Brewing as Fund Rates Turn Positive

Explore four essential tips to help you accumulate more points, optimize your strategy and claim the best rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge.

With the rise of gamified crypto events, EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge stands out as one of the most exciting opportunities for users to earn rewards while engaging with both Bybit and Mantle Network. This limited-time event offers participants a shot at a 1,000,000 MNT prize pool when they complete on-chain and trading-related tasks. 

To help you maximize your rewards and ensure you get the most out of this event, in this guide we’ll break down four essential tips to help you accumulate more points, optimize your strategy and claim the best rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge.

EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is a limited-time campaign that rewards participants with a share of a 1,000,000 MNT prize pool when they complete both Bybit and on-chain tasks. Players earn "wishes" that can be used to enter Lucky Draws or climb the leaderboard for greater rewards.

This campaign, hosted by Bybit in collaboration with Mantle, blends gamification with 

 engagement, offering users multiple ways to win. Participants can choose to rely on chance via the Lucky Draw or strategically allocate their wishes to compete on the leaderboard. The event runs from Mar 6, 2025 to Mar 27, 2025, making it a limited-time opportunity to accumulate rewards while exploring the Mantle ecosystem.

4 Tips to Maximize Your Wishes and Rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge

To make the most out of EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge, you need to strategize your wish allocation, complete as many tasks as possible and take advantage of all available earning mechanisms. Here are four essential tips to maximize your rewards:

One of the best ways to earn high-value rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is by competing on the leaderboard. There are a total of five rounds, and the rewards are higher with each passing round. 

The more wishes you allocate toward leaderboard rankings, the higher your position and the larger your rewards. However, since the leaderboard is dynamic, your rank can change based on the activity of other participants.

Since leaderboard positions fluctuate, it’s recommended that you monitor your ranking regularly and adjust your strategy accordingly. Players who accumulate the most wishes by the end of each leaderboard round will receive the greatest rewards.

 that each round’s rewards and wishes are calculated independently, and any wishes spent in a round won’t carry over to the next round.

If you prefer an element of surprise, the Lucky Draw is your best bet. By spending wishes on Lucky Draw attempts, you earn the chance to win instant prizes. The Lucky Draw operates on a first-come, first-served basis, so the earlier you participate, the better your chances of securing top-tier rewards.

Since rewards are limited, it's advisable to use your wishes early before the top prizes run out.

An easy way to earn free points in this campaign is by holding Mantle (MNT) and/or Mantle Restaked ETH (cmETH) in your Bybit account. By simply keeping these assets in your wallet, you’ll receive additional wishes, increasing your chances of winning more rewards.

This passive method of earning wishes ensures that you accumulate extra points without actively completing tasks, making it one of the simplest ways to boost your rewards.

Another hidden gem for doubling your rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is through Layer 3. Participants who complete specific Layer 3 quests will receive extra bonuses, including double rewards on certain tasks.

By leveraging Layer 3 bonuses, you can significantly boost your total wish count, increasing your chances of securing leaderboard positions or hitting big wins in the Lucky Draw.

If you’re looking for a fun and rewarding way to engage with the Mantle ecosystem, EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is definitely an event worth joining. With 1,000,000 MNT up for grabs, both casual users and seasoned traders can benefit from this campaign.

The event's dual-reward system allows participants to tailor their strategy based on their preferences. Whether you enjoy the thrill of luck-based rewards or prefer the competitive edge of leaderboard climbing, this campaign offers something for everyone.

Additionally, holding MNT and cmETH provides passive earnings, while Layer 3 integration presents an opportunity for double rewards — making the experience even more lucrative for active participants.

EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is a limited-time, gamified rewards campaign that blends trading, staking and on-chain interactions. By completing tasks, holding Mantle assets and strategically using your wishes, you can maximize your rewards and secure your share of the 1,000,000 MNT prize pool.

This event runs from Mar 6, 2025 to 27, 2025, so now is the best time to get started. Are you ready to explore the Mantle ecosystem and claim your rewards? Join EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge today!

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how to participate in ecogalaxy mantle surge

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Join Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle, vote for top AI projects and compete for a share of a $1M prize pool. Earn rewards while shaping the future of AI in crypto.

The Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle is an exciting and innovative trading and voting event that aims to identify and support high-potential AI projects within the cryptocurrency space.

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to revolutionize blockchain technology, this competition offers users a unique opportunity to engage with emerging AI-driven crypto projects while earning substantial rewards of up to $1 million.

 (AI) and cryptocurrency is reshaping blockchain and 

 — autonomous programs powered by machine learning — are revolutionizing the sector by automating trading strategies, optimizing portfolio management and executing on-chain decisions with minimal human input.

These intelligent agents analyze vast datasets, identify market trends and execute trades in real time, significantly enhancing efficiency and reducing risks in the volatile crypto market. Their role extends beyond trading, influencing DeFi protocols, NFT markets and blockchain governance.

Bybit is at the forefront of this AI-driven transformation, launching the 

 to spotlight high-potential AI projects. This event provides a launchpad for groundbreaking AI applications, connecting innovators with a global crypto audience.

What Is the Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle?

Bybit is launching a unique AI trading event designed to highlight the most promising AI-driven crypto projects.

AI is revolutionizing crypto markets, with automated trading bots now executing over 60% of all crypto transactions. The integration of AI and blockchain is unlocking new trading strategies, DeFi innovations and web3 applications, making the AI sector one of the most promising in crypto.

Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle bridges AI and blockchain, providing a global stage for emerging projects to gain exposure to a global audience. Participants play an active role in shaping the future of AI in crypto while earning rewards.

How to Participate in the AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle

Campaign Period: Feb 28, 2025, 10AM UTC – Mar 27, 2025, 10AM UTC

Bybit users can support AI projects and earn rewards by participating in this AI-powered trading competition. Here's a step-by-step guide to joining:

Projects earn voting points from the following ways:

By actively trading and voting, participants not only have a chance to earn from the $1 million prize pool, but will also play a crucial role in shaping the future of AI in the crypto industry.

Bybit's AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle offers an exciting $1 million prize pool, with multiple ways for participants to win rewards.

The breakdown of how votes are allocated for Bybit Spot is as follows:

The breakdown of how votes are allocated for Bybit Web3 is as follows:

The maximum number of daily votes that a user can receive is 100,400 (50,200 for Bybit Spot and Web3 respectively).

By trading, voting and engaging in the competition, participants not only support innovative AI projects but also receive a chance to maximize their earnings in this high-stakes trading battle.

Bybit's AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle offers a distinctive platform that connects cryptocurrency traders with AI innovators. Participants are invited to support leading AI projects, earn attractive rewards and contribute to shaping the future of AI within the crypto ecosystem. 

 and be part of the AI-driven revolution on Bybit!

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How to Participate in Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle

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Blockchain

Don't be caught off guard with inflationary tokenomics and low circulating supplies by learning about the importance of a crypto's fully diluted market cap.

When you're trying to predict a cryptocurrency's future success, knowing about the FDV can be helpful. Though fully diluted market caps aren't a common metric, they provide some useful insight. This guide will help you learn how to calculate and analyze fully diluted market caps so you can pick promising cryptos.

A token’s FDV refers to the token's market cap once all the tokens have been released. This metric lets you compute a project's future market cap.

The fully diluted market cap — also known as fully diluted valuation, or FDV — is a simple concept. It builds on the idea of a market cap, which means the total value of all crypto in a network at any given point. The FDV, however, looks at the future instead of the coins currently available. Compared to the traditional market cap metric, a crypto’s FDV tells you what the coin's market cap would be if all possible coins were issued.

Keep in mind that the fully diluted market cap doesn’t predict later prices. Rather, it sees how much the market cap would be if all tokens were available and worth the current market price. This is helpful because it makes it easy to see if a crypto is overvalued or undervalued. If the market cap changes drastically when supply is increased, it can be a sign that the coin's current value is incorrect.

What Is the Method for Calculating a Fully Diluted Market Cap?

Calculating FDV is elementary. Start by collecting two pieces of data: The maximum amount of tokens a crypto will release, and the current market value for a token. Multiply these two numbers together, and you’ll have the fully diluted market cap.

. Right now, there are roughly 18.9 million bitcoins in existence, but theoretically, up to 

 is $21,088 as of July 2022. Therefore, the fully diluted valuation would be roughly 442.8 billion. Ultimately, this FDV tells you what Bitcoin's market cap would look like if all 21 million Bitcoins were in circulation right now.

Remember that a fully diluted market cap is different from a market cap. The term “market cap” is used a lot, but it's not helpful for considering the future of a coin. It’s calculated by multiplying the current amount of coins by the price per coin, which helps to show the size and popularity of a cryptocurrency.

However, the biggest difference between market cap and fully diluted market cap is that a market cap doesn't indicate how the crypto's growth will affect its popularity. A fully diluted market cap gives you an estimate of how popular a crypto would be once all of its coins are released. Taking the time to calculate a crypto's fully diluted valuation allows you to consider what the coin's value might be like in the future.

Furthermore, using FDV crypto metrics alongside standard market cap gives a lot of insight into a coin's current valuation. Ideally, the difference between the market cap and the fully diluted market cap should be fairly low. A drastic difference indicates there’ll be a lot of inflationary pressure as new coins are released. This can be a warning sign that a coin's current value is overinflated.

The Dangers of High Fully Diluted Market Cap

To better understand why FDV crypto ratings are important, take a close look at the problems associated with an abnormally high, fully diluted market cap. Fully diluted valuations are mainly important when the rate is much higher than the current market cap. There's no set limit for when a fully diluted market cap becomes dangerous. However, the general rule of thumb is that an FDV of more than 10 times a token's current market cap is a warning sign. Excessively high, fully diluted market caps are associated with two problems.

A high ratio of market cap to fully diluted market cap is a problem because it shows the coin will be subject to inflation. Since crypto prices are determined by supply and demand, a coin that’s currently priced high but will soon have more tokens on the market is a risk. A high fully diluted market cap means current sellers have to pay a lot for a limited number of coins, but soon the market will be flooded with a large supply. This increase in supply tends to drive down the value of a coin unless it’s in high demand.. As past projects like TryHards (TRY) have shown, most cryptos with inflationary pricing schemes and tokenomics end up losing value very quickly.

Even if you don’t plan on keeping the crypto for years, a high fully diluted market cap can still cause issues. As the FDV crypto metric becomes more popular, more investors will use it to make their decisions. If a crypto has a high fully diluted valuation, many of these investors might assume it’s overvalued. This often encourages owners to sell their tokens. The high

, caused by a high FDV crypto rating, can affect current prices.

As you can see, the main issue highlighted by a fully diluted market cap is that a high FDV crypto rating often means the crypto has a low circulating supply. Does a low circulating supply with a high potential supply in the future automatically spell doom for a crypto? Not necessarily. Let's take a look at some examples from popular cryptos with high fully diluted valuations.

With a circulating supply of roughly 283 million and a total supply of over 377 million, 

 still has a lot of potential tokens to add to the market. With its June 2022 price of $20.95 per token, this means Avalanche has a

. This is roughly three times Avalanche's current market cap of $5.9 billion. Though the FDV crypto rating is on the high side, it hasn’t reached dangerous levels. Avalanche is an open-source, scalable crypto with many uses, so it's unlikely that extra supply will outpace demand. It's also worth considering that AVAX has had a slight dip in the past few months. As long as the price remains in the current dip, most investors still will consider AVAX to be a reliable investment option.

 is another example of a coin with a low circulating supply. Its 

, but less than half of that is in circulation. This has led to a very high fully diluted valuation. CAKE's market cap is $469 million, while its FDV crypto value is a little over $1 billion — a fairly drastic difference. The coin's sharp downturn makes it even more concerning. It's a fairly new coin that got a little buzz, but hasn't really delivered. With so many coins left to cause further inflation, most experts believe that CAKE no longer holds much promise.

 still has a lot of tokens left. So it's no surprise that its FDV crypto rating is far higher than its market cap. The current market cap as of June 2022 is $571 million, while its fully diluted valuation is a little over $2 billion. If you look at these numbers, Curve DAO seems like a poor choice, but it's worth noting that this token isn't just for trading. It's an Ethereum-based token that the stablecoin trading market, Curve, uses to swap between similar 

. Therefore, the coin has some uses that can make it helpful, despite the high fully diluted valuation. However, it's not a good coin for dumping all your investment money into.

Is Fully Diluted Market Cap a Good Valuation Metric?

The fully diluted market cap is certainly a valuable way of considering a coin's future. Unlike exchange flow metrics, it takes into account future coin supply. This helps you avoid making poor decisions because you didn't realize inflation was about to occur. Comparing the fully diluted valuation and the current market cap make it easy to notice when a coin's current price is a little too high. In most cases, coins with a high FDV aren't coins you want to put all your money into. Instead, you may want to consider selling before inflation reduces the worth of your current coins.

That being said, you can’t just look at the market cap versus the fully diluted market cap and make your decision. A high FDV crypto ranking isn't necessarily a death sentence for a crypto. As long as coin demand remains high, increased supply won't always tank the price. As we saw from our examination of high FDV cryptos, a few rare coins can keep going strong despite a high FDV. Furthermore, most fully diluted valuations aren't an accurate predictor of price. You should never make a decision by assuming the fully diluted valuation will be the true market cap in a few years.

This is why it’s essential to consider a coin's complete tokenomics. You need to take the time to analyze pricing data and learn how a coin really works. For example, looking at the core development team’s activity cases and use cases can help you notice if a coin is going to have helpful future applications that will increase demand. In the long run, FDV is a helpful tool, but it isn't a substitute for thorough research.

Ultimately, the FDV crypto metric is a useful way of seeing whether a coin might be overvalued. A high fully diluted valuation usually indicates that a coin might be harmed by inflation later on. However, it's important to keep in mind that the fully diluted market cap is only one part of the big picture. You also need to consider things like pricing history, industry interest and future project developments.

Fully Diluted Market Cap (FDV): Understanding a Token’s Value

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