Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report dives into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

The U.S. presidential election is creating a volatility premium for options expiring after Nov 5, 2024. While longer-term volatility smiles have consistently favored out-of-the-money (OTM) calls, short-term options have recently mirrored this trend. This suggests that the decline in spot prices at the end of September hasn’t significantly dampened sentiment in the derivatives markets.

Please check out some of the report’s highlights.

Futures Activities Subdued After Month-End Expiration

Spot price volatility leading up to the Sep 27, 2024 futures expiration resulted in the highest trading volumes in futures contracts in over a month. This surge was primarily focused on BTC contracts, reflecting a trend we've seen throughout much of the market's recent history. The expiration of a substantial quarterly contract at the end of September caused a decline in open interest, as not all traders opted to roll their positions into later expirations. Consequently, futures activity is currently much lower compared to that in perpetual swap markets.

While the expiration of the September contract led to a significant drop in futures open interest, the effect on perpetual swap contract markets was comparatively mild. Although we observed a decline in perpetual open interest at the end of the month, this was likely due to the closure of long positions as spot prices retreated toward the lower end of their recent range. 

This shift halts an upward trend in open interest that had been approaching all-time highs, but it doesn’t indicate a major decline — especially considering the high trading volumes recorded over the last two days of the month.

BTC ATM Implied Volatility Falls Sharply Since Fed Rate Cut

Positioning in BTC options markets continues to be heavily influenced by the U.S. election narrative. This is most evident in the term structure, which indicates significantly higher volatility expectations following the election, while short-term options are trading at much lower levels. The rise in implied volatility for these shorter tenors contrasts with the recent decline in actual volatility, which has reached lows for the month as spot prices remain relatively stable. 

Over the past week, trade volumes have mirrored this shifting sentiment, showing similar activity in both puts and calls. However, neither trade volumes nor open interest levels have surpassed recent figures, reflecting the range-bound nature of BTC spot prices, which remain influenced by broader macroeconomic factors.

Advanced

BlockSholves X Bybit Tech Report

Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Oct 2, 2024): Positive Sentiment Persists Following Recent Decline in Spot Prices

Sui has made history as the first blockchain to adopt SCION, a secure alternative to the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP), which protects against Internet routing attacks.

The SPX index was up by 0.01%, with energy, technology, and financial sectors performing well, while consumer discretionary, staples, and communication services lagging. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also remained in focus. Coindesk Indices, an index measuring broader cryptocurrency market performance was down by 1.56%, with Bitcoin and Ether dropping by 2.48% and by 2.65%, respectively in the past 24 hours.

Today's top performer is W, which surged 10.1% following the launch of Wormholescan v2, featuring enhanced multichain data and developer tools.

Wormhole (W), launched in 2020, is a cross-chain protocol that facilitates communication and token transfers across over 30 blockchain networks. Originally a crypto bridge between Solana and Ethereum, it has expanded to include features like the Portal token bridge and messaging protocols, serving as a comprehensive platform for cross-chain interactions. 

, providing enhanced real-time multichain data for the Wormhole ecosystem. New features include token, chain, and protocol analysis, a governor dashboard, a dedicated analytics page, and a developer section with a VAA parser. Users can explore these updates at 

Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data of 

Sui has made history as the first blockchain to adopt SCION, a secure alternative to the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP), which protects against Internet routing attacks. SCION addresses security flaws in BGP that have led to significant problems on other networks by preventing malicious traffic rerouting. With SCION, Sui enhances network resilience, safeguards validators from hijacking and DDoS attacks, and boosts performance with reduced latency. This integration solidifies Sui's position as a top blockchain for secure, critical infrastructure applications, maintaining 100% uptime since launching its mainnet.

Yesterday, the total flow for BTC spot ETFs was -$39.2 million, with no flow for GBTC and a negative flow of $39.2 million for non-GBTC ETFs.

, allowing users to earn test XTM and Gems. To participate, users need to download the app via the provided link, install it, and mine tXTM to earn 25 Gems per 1 tXTM mined. More Gems lead to a larger Tari airdrop.

Beginner

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Sui Integrates SCION to Pioneer Blockchain Security Against Internet Routing Attacks

Eigenpie (EGP) is the ETH liquid restaking platform on EigenLayer enabling ETH and LST holders to earn rewards from multiple protocols while maintaining liquidity through liquid restaking tokens (LRTs).

, token holders are required to lock away their tokens for a long time through the 

 (PoS) consensus mechanism on the platform. While this structure helps keep the network liquid and secure, it’s a bit rigid regarding capital efficiency.

To counter this limitation, liquid staking protocols such as 

, which allows staked ETH to be used for other 

 (DeFi) activities, earning token holders extra rewards by issuing liquid staking tokens (LSTs).

However, liquid staking only allows assets to be staked in a single PoS blockchain. This limitation has led to the development of 

. It allows you to use staked assets to secure and earn rewards from multiple protocols through the use of 

One of the liquid restaking protocols operating on EigenLayer is Eigenpie, which lets you stake your staked assets to node operators in exchange for LRTs so you can earn rewards.

Let's examine Eigenpie more closely to see how it’s shaping the liquid restacking narrative in the DeFi ecosystem.

Eigenpie is a liquid restaking protocol within the EigenLayer ecosystem that allows you to earn passive income from both Ethereum staking and EigenLayer restaking while maintaining your assets’ liquidity through the use of LRTs. 

 ecosystem, Eigenpie aims to provide more utility for ETH holders in line with the broader vision of EigenLayer via liquid restaking.

As a native ETH holder or liquid staking participant, you can deposit your assets on Eigenpie, which then restakes them to node validators on EigenLayer. The node validators will then use these assets to power new 

 (AVS) on EigenLayer, allowing you as a token holder to earn extra rewards while maintaining liquid positions. Eigenpie has integrated with various DeFi platforms that let you use your LRTs to explore other yield-earning DeFi opportunities while accumulating Eigenpie points that qualify you for the EGP 

EigenLayer is an Ethereum restaking protocol designed to enhance the capital efficiency of your staked ETH by restaking it across different protocols. As a support layer for the Ethereum network, EigenLayer has a set of node validators who temporarily stake assets and verify transactions securely. Users who delegate their tokens to these node validators receive LRTs, which earn them rewards without unlocking their staked positions.

EigenLayer operates a system of AVS that allows projects such as sidechains, 

 to connect to its liquid restaking token protocols in order to secure their platforms without running full nodes.

As a novel isolated liquid restaking platform of EigenLayer, Eigenpie’s distinctive features include the following.

Eigenpie offers an innovative approach to liquid restaking by offering isolated liquid restaking tokens exclusive to a particular ETH LST. This isolates the risk to only the specific token staked on Eigenpie, and not any other ETH LST’s performance. This feature not only ensures that liquid restaking on Eigenpie is security-focused, but also offers an optimal restaking experience, especially to risk-averse LST holders. Below is a chart with the isolated liquid restaking tokens available on Eigenpie.

Eigenpie also offers isolated native restaking in collaboration with 

, an open-source ETH staking network that uses 

 (SSV) technology to create a decentralized and secure environment for ETH staking by splitting a validator key into several keyshares, which are distributed to multiple nodes. The isolated native restaking feature on Eigenpie allows ETH holders to connect their ETH to the website and restake it through a simple user interface. Once it’s restaked, ETH holders receive egETH tokens that earn them 2x Eigenpie points, resulting in better yields over time.

Eigenpie Enterprise, a restaking feature on Eigenpie designed for institutional grade investors, 

 that are designed to accommodate different enterprises, depending upon their needs.

The first version allows enterprises to participate in native restaking, liquid restaking and DeFi protocols only within the Eigenpie ecosystem in order to reduce their risk of bad debt. Meanwhile, the second version enables institutions to expand their positions from their existing EigenLayer holdings into the Eigenpie Institution Node Delegator, which opens them to more DeFi opportunities since they can deposit their LRTs in their preferred DeFi platform.

Eigenpie Token (EGP) is the governance and reward-earning 

 on Eigenpie. It's designed to ensure the sustainability and long-term success of Eigenpie as a restaking platform. As an EGP holder, you can lock your tokens to receive vlEGP tokens (at a 1:1 ratio) that can then be used to participate in Eigenpie's governance, and to earn rewards for active participation in the ecosystem. 

 EGP has a total supply of 10 million tokens, distributed as shown below:

Eigenpie's airdrop is reserved for holders who accumulate Eigenpie points through user engagement, and for 

 users from Binance and OKX. To accumulate Eigenpie points, users need to remain active on the platform by depositing LSTs. In short, 1 ETH worth of LST deposits on the platform earns you one point per hour. You can also earn points through referral, whereby your additional points are proportionate to the points earned by your referee.

You can buy EGP on Bybit's Spot trading platform. The token is listed as the 

 trading pair. Trading EGP on Bybit's user-friendly terminal is fast and efficient, and comes with 24-hour multilingual customer support.

The liquid restaking concept in cryptocurrency continues to proliferate, since it provides capital-efficient utility for ETH holders. Since Eigenpie is a top protocol on EigenLayer, ETH and LST holders can leverage its features, such as isolated liquid restaking and native restaking, to earn additional passive income from their staked assets.

Furthermore, institutional enterprises can leverage Eigenpie’s platform to access a wide range of DeFi opportunities by using their staked assets. The protocol offers liquid restaking services, and is thus timely as investors continue to explore DeFi opportunities in the crypto market.

Intermediate

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Eigenpie (EGP): ETH Liquid Restaking Powered by EigenLayer

Mumu the Bull is a meme coin built on the Solana blockchain. Learn more about how it works in this article.

 are two of the most iconic. Of the two imposing quadrupeds used to describe general market trends, almost everyone hopes for a bull market, in which prices soar. The crypto project known as Mumu the Bull has taken this classic concept and turned it into a 

. By combining internet trends from around the globe, Mumu the Bull hopes to create the next big thing. Is Mumu the Bull popular right now, and will its price increase in the future? Explore this guide to find out.

 blockchain. Its marketing ties together cartoon animal imagery, similarly to 

, with crypto memes about bull markets. This coin is also known for its competition with the Bobo the Bear meme coin.

According to Mumu the Bull’s creators, the coin’s primary goals are to unite the crypto world by including references to several beloved memes within the crypto universe, and to encourage countless users to trade its coin. In addition to references to bull and bear markets, Mumu the Bull endeavors to capitalize on familiarity with Pepe the Frog meme coins. It uses similar art and occasionally includes cartoon frogs in its memes. Eventually, 

 it will be able to use these playful references to become "the meme coin to rule them all." 

Some crypto investors also believe that Mumu the Bull can function as a market sentiment tracker. Its creators have set up Mumu the Bull to compete with Bobo the Bear. Therefore, some users hope that they’ll be able to predict a bull-vs.-bear crypto market by considering which of the two cryptos has a higher price and/or trading volume.

The Mumu the Bull meme coin project is built on the Solana blockchain. Thus, instead of running its own ledger, it uses the underlying security of Solana to validate and track each transaction. While Solana handles the back end, Mumu the Bull's team is focused on promoting the token. They’ve created multiple social media sites, and spend a lot of time generating memes and artwork surrounding the coin. This allows them to get their coin into the public consciousness, so more crypto enthusiasts will be interested in buying it.

 that automatically removes 0.25% of tokens from the liquidity pool for each sale that’s made. This has resulted in a current total supply of 2.324 trillion tokens. Of the total supply, 95% has been allocated toward liquidity. These tokens quickly ended up being bought and sold on the open market. The remaining 5% of tokens were distributed to the Mumu the Bull team to compensate them for their work.

Initially, the MUMU token struggled to gain attention after its release, trading at roughly $0.000005. However, several months after its launch, Mumu the Bull took the crypto world by storm. Prices suddenly doubled, and then doubled again. By Jul 29, 2024, MUMU had reached an all-time high (ATH) of $0.00012. 

Despite a drop in price from its ATH, Mumu the Bull has still managed to retain popularity. MUMU is currently within the 

 by market cap and among the top 500 cryptocurrencies overall. Furthermore, MUMU’s 24-hour trading volume is $9.87 million (as of Oct 2, 2024), and its price is still up, roughly 1,257% from its ATL. 

This pricing history reveals a lot about the popularity of Mumu the Bull. Instead of following the trend of many meme coins, with a brief spike in interest followed by obscurity, Mumu the Bull has experienced a slow yet steady rise in trading. This coin has gone from an underrated novelty to an iconic meme coin in the 2024 market. Particularly when the market is dealing with bull conditions, Mumu the Bull is trading very well.

MUMU tokens are primarily available through 

 (DEXs). The creators of Mumu the Bull suggest that people purchase MUMU by purchasing Solana tokens, and then swapping Solana for MUMU tokens on a DEX. 

However, if you prefer a more convenient way to invest in MUMU, consider purchasing Mumu the Bull tokens as a Perpetual contract. To get started, you’ll first need to create a Bybit account, then fund it with cryptocurrency and navigate to the 

If you're looking for a diverse portfolio filled with meme coins, the MUMU token is a promising option. Its price is currently low enough that it's not overinflated, yet it's still seeing a lot of trading activity. Thanks to its proximity to the Pepe the Frog universe, Mumu the Bull seems likely to keep its audience interested for some time.

However, this probably isn't a meme coin that's going to turn anyone into a millionaire overnight. While it's performing reasonably well, nothing about the coin indicates an imminent drastic increase in value. It's likely to undergo both small price increases and decreases in the future. Due to the inherent volatility of meme coins, investors need to exercise some caution when purchasing Mumu the Bull. Never overextend yourself financially, and make sure you 

Ultimately, Mumu the Bull is a promising addition to the world of meme coins. By focusing on classic memes about market conditions, it's managed to attract an audience and increase its prices. However, Mumu the Bull has a lot of competition, so only time will tell if this token can become a top meme coin.

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Mumu the Bull (MUMU): A Symbol of the Bull Run Moovement

Bybit 360

Options

Learn how this data can help us make more informed trades, we aim to equip traders with the tools they need to navigate the market effectively. 

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 trading has been an important part of the broader crypto economy and the most important price discovery venue for cryptocurrency, especially for blue chips like 

. Professional traders and institutions have been using futures and options as part of their portfolios to hedge their positions, improve the execution of their strategies and potentially increase the profitability of their portfolios. 

Most participants in the cryptocurrency derivatives markets are professional traders (or as some may call them, 

) who are often at the forefront of crypto trading.. Observing the derivatives markets by constantly examining the relevant data could provide valuable insights into how these professional traders see the market.

In this article, we’ll provide a practical overview of derivatives trading data and explain how an everyday trader can extract actionable information from this data. By discussing how this data can help us make more informed trades, we aim to equip traders with the tools they need to navigate the market effectively. 

Open interest (OI) is one of the most common metrics in crypto derivatives trading. It refers to the number of outstanding unsettled (opened) contracts — whether perpetual, futures or options — that market participants hold at any given time.

Figure 1: BTCUSDT Perpetual open interest on Bybit

OI is essential because it essentially tracks the number of active market participants and, to some extent, is able to reflect the level of willingness of these professional traders to make trades at a specific time. 

 OI on Bybit. There was a clear spike in OI on September 19, 2024, when the United States Federal Reserve delivered its 50 bps rate cut. This surge in OI could mean traders have been more willing to bet on BTC prices after confirmation of the cut.

It’s important for general traders to know how active the market is. If the market is active, it could give asset prices stronger momentum. In contrast, a less active market with a continuing lower OI could mean that traders are in a wait-and-see mode.

The long/short ratio is another derivatives trading indicator from which we can extract important information. It essentially gives you a glimpse of oversold sentiment among professional traders. As the name suggests, the long/short ratio expresses the net long and net short positions as percentages of all position holders within a specific period. 

Figure 2: Bybit’s BTCUSDT Perpetual daily long/short ratio.

Examining the changes in the long/short ratio could also give general traders more confidence to spot trends. For example, in early September 2024, BTC prices saw noticeable fluctuations, from around $64,000 in late August to near $52,000 in early September.

Figure 2 shows the daily long/short ratio of BTCUSDT on Bybit. During the sell-off, the long-short account ratio increased for three consecutive days and reached 2.9 on September 7, 2024, the highest level in a recent month.

Interestingly, as Figure 3 suggests, the price of BTC decreased during the highlighted period while the number of long accounts accumulated. This divergence could imply that derivatives traders have been gearing up for a potential trend reversal, thereby opening more long positions.

Let's look at the recent BTCUSDT perpetual long/short ratio. Figure 4 shows the ratio dropping from 1.71 on Sep 19, 2024 to 1.25 on September 20, one day after the Fed's rate cut. Despite the market seeming to react positively after the cut is delivered, the long/short ratio shows that short accounts have actually increased. 

This increase could be interpreted as traders taking a relatively conservative stance, choosing not to increase their long positions and to hedge with additional short positions as BTC’s price increases. It would be instructive to look at readings for the next few days to reach a clear conclusion. 

Figure 4: Bybit’s BTCUSDT Perpetual daily long/short ratio

It's worth noting that the long/short ratio can also be categorized by trader profile, such as the top 100 largest position holders. It can also be viewed under a different time frame, such as one hour or 30 minutes. Each of these parameters may provide different information. We highly recommend users reference multiple data points from different categories to get a more complete picture. 

. We also recommend the following reading:

Options have been one of the most favorite trading products for professionals, especially institutional traders. The flexibility and composability of options enable traders to use complex position setups and strategies. Looking into options trading data may give us a peek at how these professional participants have been setting up their trades.

Understanding OI by Expiration & Strike Price

 in options refers to the number of opened contracts within a specific time frame. Options contracts also have many more parameters than perpetual contracts, and open interest alone can be filtered by types of options, expiration dates, strike prices and much more. Let's take a look at the below examples.

Figure 5a: BTC call options OI by expiration.

Figure 5b: BTC put options OI by expiration.

Figures 5a and 5b (above) show the OI of BTC call and put options by expiration dates. In September 2024, most of the OI, both call and put, was on the contract with a Sep 27, 2024 expiration. Traders seem to have been betting on where BTC will go by the end of the month.

Now, let's look at the strike prices among the OI with the Sep 27, 2024 expiration date. Figure 6a suggests that most of the OI for BTC calls was at $60,000, while Figure 6b indicates that the $40,000 put has the most OI. 

This gives us a price range as a reference, which could mean that options traders who are betting on BTC prices to rise by the end of the month seem to believe that by the expiration date (September 27), BTC will have a chance to hit $60,000 or above. 

In addition, traders have been using relatively 

 (OTM) and less expensive put options to protect their long positions. This could explain why $40,000 has most of the OI.

Figure 6a: BTC call options OI by strike price.

Figure 6b: BTC put options OI by strike price

So, how can this information be interpreted? At the time of this writing, BTC was trading at around $62,000. A $60,000 call option is in-the-money; if someone has a stronger bias toward a positive price action in the short or medium term, they would certainly buy in BTC calls with high strike prices. If there's a noticeable shift of the OI toward high strike prices' call options, that could mean that the positive sentiment of the post-rate cut could still be somewhat sustaining. Otherwise, it could be interpreted as a conservative setup.

To sum up, based on the above-mentioned data, BTC derivatives traders seem to have remained somewhat bullish after the Fed’s rate cut. However, it seems that most participants were cautiously optimistic, without over-leveraging, and perhaps wanted to see more confirmation of a trend reversal before making additional trades.

 page offers comprehensive information on perpetual, futures and options trading data. During 

, the Bybit Learn team will produce articles and analyses based on the contract data to provide additional insight so that users can make more informed trades.

In some ways, exploring derivatives data is similar to walking in the dark: perhaps you’ll be able to see the road just in front of you, but you certainly won't see too far. It’s also like a puzzle in that each piece of data can give you a little information, but you certainly can't see the complete picture with just one piece. Besides, there are many ways to interpret this data, and everyone may have a different interpretation. We encourage users to study derivatives trading in general, and to become familiar with this data.

While learning about derivatives trading (and using data) can be a powerful approach, it also has limitations, and is usually more applicable to blue chip cryptocurrencies.

Learn From Smart Money: Observing Market Sentiment From Derivatives Data

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