Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report dives into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

As the U.S. election nears, short-term implied volatility has risen to multi-month highs, significantly outpacing the longer end of the term structure and causing a notable inversion. This shift indicates heightened positioning activity ahead of the election early next week, similar to the pattern seen before the Bitcoin Spot ETF launch in January 2024. 

Meanwhile, ETH derivatives suggest that the second-largest cryptocurrency is likely to maintain its trend of underperformance amid event risk, lagging behind BTC across all metrics and carrying a 10-point volatility premium over it.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

The recent surge in futures open interest has accelerated significantly over the past few days as BTC’s spot price approaches all-time highs, suggesting that traders are positioning themselves for additional price movements across all tenors. However, this increase has been almost exclusively in BTC contracts, with ETH experiencing only a slight uptick in active contracts. Coupled with the less bullish sentiment in ETH options markets, this indicates that traders are much more inclined to take bullish positions for BTC in anticipation of the election than for ETH, despite ETH's recent rally.

Open interest in perpetual swap markets saw a brief decline before sharply recovering alongside spot price rallies, reaching the highest levels this month (October 2024). When combined with the positive funding rates for BTC and ETH, these fluctuations indicate strong bullish demand for leveraged long positions as traders prepare for upcoming event risks. Moreover, while trading volumes remain high, they haven't shown any exceptional activity over the past week, suggesting consistent engagement with perpetuals without significant volatility.

Surging 7-Day Volatility as U.S. Election Looms

BTC’s implied volatility term structure has experienced a significant inversion, with short-term implied volatility rising sharply to trade at a 10-point premium over longer tenors. This shift indicates heightened expectations in the options markets as the U.S. election approaches, reflecting similar trends seen in futures and perpetuals. This rush to position mirrors market behavior observed in January 2024 ahead of the release of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, when there was a surge in demand for short-term exposure to anticipated volatility. Notably, despite bullish market indicators, open interest has shown a rapid increase in put options, which have reached levels comparable to those for call options.

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Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Oct 30, 2024): Derivatives See Patterns Reminiscent of BTC Spot ETF Launch in January 2024

BBQCoin (BBQ) is a tap-to-earn game on TON blockchain with a growing GameFi ecosystem  incorporating AI and VR technologies.

 (TON), whose ecosystem has seen a buzz of successful projects attracting millions of users. The Telegram-backed blockchain leverages the social media's vast user base to create viral narratives revolving around social interactions and apps.

One such narrative is tap-to-earn games, such as 

, which have experienced phenomenal success as users have embraced them in pursuit of riches.

 is the latest entrant into the tap-to-earn craze on TON, and the project is already creating a buzz as users rush in to make a fortune through tapping.

Let’s explore this click-to-earn game further.

BBQCoin is a Telegram-based clicker project whose initial game is powered by TON’s blockchain. It’s designed as a social learning platform on which users earn simply by tapping on a screen

. The BBQCoin app on TON is modeled on the 

, in which users earn from participating in fun activities.

BBQCoin launched on TON to leverage Telegram's extensive user base of around 900 million users, and has a vibrant community that can easily scale the project.

The broader vision for the project is to provide a vibrant GameFi and 

 (DeFi) ecosystem, incorporating AI and VR technologies, that will include token issuance, lightweight games, OTC escrow trading and on-chain trading. Players are envisioned to have the capability to own 

 (NFTs) in the form of “BBQ rooms,” which can be customized according to their preferences. However, in the project's first phase, BBQCoin focuses on its tap-to-earn game in which participants mine or earn in-game BBQcoins as they climb up the leagues by mastering the game.

The circulating currency for the BBQCoin project is BBQ, which users earn as they engage with the platform.

 game app on your device by heading to the BBQCoin Telegram channel and clicking on 

. Once you've entered the game, you simply need to tap on the screen to mine or earn coins. The more tapping you do, the more coins you accumulate.

The game has various features designed to enhance your experience, as follows.

There are several ways to mine/earn BBQcoins.

In Q2, 2024, BBQCoin launched its click-to-earn model and also introduced BBQ token staking. Then, in Q3 2024, the project introduced multiplier card NFTs for token holders, and conducted an airdrop to distribute BBQ tokens to its early adopters.

By Q4 2024, BBQCoin intends to launch its NFT gaming guild system, in which users can mint NFTs. The project also anticipates launching the BBQ marketplace and token issuance and launchpad products.

In Q1 2025, BBQCoin plans to introduce its on-chain trustless trading system and off-chain OTC trading platform. Then, in Q2 2025, the project intends to launch its social gaming platform and open gaming guild APIs. By Q3 2025, BBQCoin hopes to integrate AI/AR technology to enhance user-generated gaming guilds.

BBQ is the native token for BBQCoin ecosystem. Players can earn BBQ by carrying out various activities in the ecosystem. Its total supply of 500 million tokens is distributed as follows:

As indicated above, 45% of BBQ’s total supply will go to in-game mining rewards, at a rate of 0.3% per year, which will be halved every year. Rewards will be split 60/40 between the game ecosystem mining pool and the launchpad ecological mining pool.

You can get your BBQ tokens by subscribing to the 

 from Oct 28, 2024, 10AM UTC to Nov 3, 2024, 10AM UTC. Thereafter, a lottery will be conducted on Nov 3, 2024 for 15 minutes, from 10–10:15AM UTC. You can then redeem your BBQ tokens from Nov 3, 2024, 10:15AM UTC through Nov 4, 2024, 10AM UTC. The IDO will fundraise with USDT on BNB Chain, then distribute the BBQ tokens to TON wallet addresses.

 allows you to buy tokens before they launch (at presale prices). It uses a system of smart contracts to help you fairly and equitably access presale tokens at the presale stage. By getting into presale, you’re almost assured of the initial allocation of a token before it goes mainstream.

The tap-to-earn phenomenon on TON has attracted millions of players. The latest tap-to-earn game in this popular space, created by BBQCoin, could go on to perform as well as its counterparts did earlier this year. The simplicity and non-technical nature of this game make it attractive to a wide range of players, including beginners. 

As TON continues to onboard new users into web3, BBQCoin finds itself in a ripe market with a game that could be an exciting opportunity for people to make a fortune.

Beginner

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BBQCoin (BBQ): Grill Your Way to Rewards on TON

In this article, we'll go through how you can use bbSOL on Kamino.

 has emerged as a pivotal platform for those looking to optimize their digital asset management, especially with 

 (bbSOL). This article will explore how bbSOL holders can leverage Kamino’s sophisticated suite of DeFi tools to enhance liquidity provision, maximize yields and strategically employ their assets in novel ways.

 was initially conceived to streamline the process of providing liquidity and generating yield on the 

 blockchain. It quickly distinguished itself with innovative one-click auto-compounding concentrated liquidity strategies that have set new standards in the industry.

Today, Kamino has evolved into a comprehensive DeFi platform that unifies lending, liquidity provision and leverage opportunities into a single integrated product suite, making it the first and largest of its kind on Solana.

Kamino's platform offers users a range of options to engage with the DeFi space more actively:

Additionally, Kamino’s user interface is designed to be highly intuitive, offering transparent analytics, detailed performance data and extensive information about positions, which demystifies the often complex dynamics of DeFi for everyday users.

Scroll down and expand LST List, select bbSOL.

, input bbSOL amount.              

Read, understand and check the points before selecting 

Once deposit is done, monitor your position.

Kamino offers a robust platform for users looking to enhance their DeFi engagement using bbSOL. From simple lending and borrowing to more complex leveraged investments and automated strategies, Kamino provides a comprehensive, secure and efficient environment for your digital assets. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or new to the blockchain space, Kamino’s user-friendly interface and powerful features make it an excellent choice for expanding your investment portfolio on Solana.

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How to Use bbSOL on Kamino

Franklin Templeton has expanded its OnChain U.S. Government Money Market Fund (FOBXX) to Coinbase’s Base, an Ethereum Layer-2 network, allowing users to trade the fund on Base.

Daily Top Performer — Grass Network (GRASS)

The S&P 500 dropped 1.86% on Thursday, led by disappointing guidance from Microsoft and Meta. Investors now await the October jobs report for further market cues. Coindesk Indices, an index measuring broader cryptocurrency market performance was down by 4.71%, with Bitcoin and Ether dropping by 2.61% and 5.93%, respectively in the past 24 hours.

Today's top performer is GRASS, which surged 13.4% following the launch of Stage 2 of the Grass Network, aimed at building a user-owned internet map and introducing new rewards.

Grass Network (GRASS), founded in 2023, is a decentralized network on the Solana blockchain that converts unused internet bandwidth into a resource for collecting and structuring public web data for AI development. 

, aiming to create a user-owned map of the internet by routing web searches through its platform. This phase will introduce rewards and new products, including Live Context Retrieval (LCR) and a mobile app. Reflecting on Stage 1, Grass has achieved 2.8 million users across 190 countries, conducted the largest airdrop on Solana, and scraped 100TB of web data daily.

Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data of 

 its OnChain U.S. Government Money Market Fund (FOBXX) to Coinbase’s Base, an Ethereum Layer-2 network, allowing users to trade the fund on Base. Known for providing access to U.S. government securities, FOBXX can now be held in digital wallets via the Benji Investments app. Base joins other networks like Avalanche and Arbitrum in supporting FOBXX, furthering Franklin Templeton's involvement in digital assets, which began in 2019.

Yesterday, BTC Spot ETF data showed an outflow of $286.5 million, including $31.1 million from GBTC and $255.4 million from non-GBTC sources.

Zircuit airdropped its ZRC tokens to 190,000 EigenLayer (EIGEN) holders on October 31, granting equal amounts per recipient to support equity in token distribution. This "

" is part of Zircuit’s strategy to recognize contributions regardless of stake size and foster decentralization. Zircuit's platform, launched in early 2024, amassed a $3.7 billion TVL at its peak, currently holding $1.58 billion. Zircuit’s ZRC token, now trading at $0.17, has declined 22.7% since its September unlock. EigenLayer, a major player in the liquid restaking space, has a TVL of $11.2 billion.

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Franklin Templeton Brings OnChain Money Market Fund to Coinbase’s Base Network

Bybit 360

Options

Trading

Derivatives

Strategies

BTC and SOL have snapped 60% YTD gains so far, any chance for ETH playing a catch-up?

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The sentiment of the broader cryptocurrency market has turned positive as the price of BTC cleared its March 2024 highs. With the current momentum, BTC could be paving the way for reaching a new all-time high. So far, BTC and SOL have snapped 60% YTD gains. However, ETH only gained about 12% in the same period. 

, we emphasized that ETH may need a break before another attempt to push higher. Since the article was published, the price of 

 contract has retracted from around $2,600 to nearly $2,300 before rebounding.

This edition of Learn From Smart Money will continue to dig into the derivatives trading data on Bybit to explore the possibility of ETH catching up to its peers by the end of the year.

Crypto market sentiment has improved noticeably as recent BTC price actions have renewed traders' interest in the asset class. The 

Figure 1: Crypto Fear & Greed Index and the global crypto market cap. Source: Bybit

Derivatives traders' interest in ETH has increased in addition to that for other major tokens, especially in the options market. Figure 2 (below) indicates the open interest and trade volume for ETH options on Bybit, as open interest reached a fresh monthly high (highlighted in the red circle). This could indicate that traders are more willing to use options contracts to speculate on the price of ETH, potentially reinforcing the current momentum or hedging their existing positions using options.

Figure 2: Open interest and volume of ETH options on Bybit. Source: Bybit

Strong momentum has also been seen in the ETH perpetual contracts market, as open interest reached the highest level in almost a month. Although perpetuals, futures and options contracts are widely used by professional traders and institutions, there are some key differences between the three. (Please read the article entitled 

 on Bybit Learn for more information. Also, check out 

 to learn more about trade volume and open interest in derivatives trading, and why these are essential.) 

Figure 3: Open interest and volume of ETHUSDT Perpetuals on Bybit. Source: Bybit

As we dive into ETH options trading data, it’s evident that the ETH options market has gotten more attention, and options traders are setting up for a year-end trade as contracts with a Dec 27, 2024 expiration have the highest open interest. This could mean that traders have been betting on the potential price actions of ETH, and these movements could be realized by the end of the year. It's also worth noting that contracts with a Nov 1, 2024 expiration received the second-highest open interest on Bybit, implying that some traders are also making short-term speculations with options.

Figure 4: Open interest by expiration of ETH options on Bybit. Source: Bybit

Exploring how options traders pick their contract strike prices could provide another clue. According to Bybit's 

 page, among all the ETH calls with a Dec 27, 2024 expiration, most of the open interest has been on contracts with strike prices at $2,700 and $3,600, as shown in Figures 5 and 6 below. 

Figure 5: Open interest by expiration of ETH options on Bybit. Source: Bybit

Figure 6: Open interest by expiration of ETH options on Bybit. Source: Bybit

The implications could be twofold: On the one hand, some traders seem more conservative by just picking $2,700 calls with a year-end expiration. At the time of this writing (Oct 31, 2024), ETH has been trading at around $2,600. In other words, there's a good chance that these calls could eventually turn 

On the other hand, some traders seem more optimistic by selecting $3,600 strike price calls with the same expiration date. If these calls became ITM, it could mean a potential 35% upside on the spot (or even higher with leverage using derivatives).

Figure 7: Open interest by strike of ETH options with a Dec 27, 2024 expiration on Bybit. Source: Bybit

Now, let's look at the puts. Most of the open interest among the year-end expiration ETH options contracts was on puts with a $2,000 strike price. While many may consider $2,000 to be one of the key psychological levels for ETH, the likelihood of reaching that level by the end of the year seems relatively low. This could in fact be part of the hedging strategy from options traders. Visit the 

While the market is embracing upcoming macro events, such as the upcoming elections and job reports in the U.S., and the upcoming Fed meeting in early November, market volatility could soon increase. From an 

 perspective, it seems that the current level is relatively low, since implied volatility is one of the key elements in options pricing. In simple terms, the higher the implied volatility, the higher the prices of the options contracts. In ETH's case, the current levels may be considered favorable because implied volatility is expected to go higher for ETH options.

Figure 8: Historical volatility of ETH options on Bybit. Source: Bybit

Options trading is highly systematic. That's one of the reasons professional traders and institutions have been using options as a major vehicle to trade both crypto and traditional assets. By observing the options trading data, users can see how professionals have been setting up their trades, and learn about their logic and rationale. Follow 

: Investing in cryptocurrencies and their derivatives involves substantial risk of loss, and isn’t suitable for every investor. This article provides facts for educational purposes only, and does not represent any financial advice. Prior to making any investment decisions, please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Our customer support team is available to assist you with any inquiries.

Learn From Smart Money: The Case for ETH Playing Catch-Up

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