Mar 17, 2025: Our weekly Institutional Insights explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

 explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

Weekly highlight — consumer sentiment falls

US consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in over two years, reflecting growing concerns about the economic impact of tariffs. According to data from the University of Michigan, the preliminary sentiment index for March 2025 dropped to 57.9 from 64.7 in February, the lowest level since November 2022. This decline was worse than expected by a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Inflation expectations surged, with consumers anticipating a 3.9% annual price increase over the next five to ten years, the highest rate over three decades. Additionally, consumers expect prices to rise by 4.9% over the next year from 4.3%, marking the steepest rise since 2022.

As US president Donald Trump’s tariff policies expand, consumers across the political spectrum increasingly worry that these extra duties will lead to higher costs. Despite recent inflation cooling, ongoing price pressures could lead households to reduce discretionary spending.

The survey also indicated a record low in consumer expectations regarding personal finances, with respondents estimating only a 48.7% chance of stock market gains in the coming year. Joanne Hsu, 

 the University of Michigan, emphasized that uncertainty surrounding economic policies complicates financial planning.

Some analysts warned that declining consumer confidence poses a significant threat to spending, as fears of an economic downturn may deter purchases of major items. Overall, the current conditions gauge and the expectations index fell to their lowest levels in several months, showcasing widespread consumer apprehension.

Weekly crypto highlight — Bitcoin see slight life in the past weekend

Bitcoin rebounded from a four-month low earlier this week alongside other risky assets recovering from recent market turmoil. Economic uncertainties driven by a wave of tariffs from President Trump and the threat of a government shutdown have led to significant sell-offs across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.

“As we conclude a week of widespread selling, markets are experiencing a relief rally from oversold conditions,” stated Ravi Doshi, Co-Head of Markets at FalconX. The avoidance of a US government funding shutdown has eased market uncertainty.

On Friday, Bitcoin rose by as much as 6.2%, reaching $85,301, while smaller digital assets surged even more: Solana gained over 9%, Chainlink increased by 13% and XRP rose nearly 8%. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had dropped to around $77,000, a significant decline from its all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025.

This slump triggered record outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and large liquidations in crypto derivatives markets. Crypto markets are bouncing back as macro-driven liquidations seem to be pausing. Analysts suggest that ongoing macroeconomic stability may support crypto prices.

Advanced

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Weekly Institutional Insights: Consumer sentiment falls as crypto recovers from 4-month low

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

The ongoing sell-off in risk-on assets has intensified bearish signals in derivatives markets for crypto assets. Funding rates indicate a demand for short exposure, futures prices are trading below spot prices and volatility smiles are showing a strong skew toward OTM puts as traders hedge against further declines. The at-the-money (ATM) volatility term structure has inverted again after a lack of clarity around Trump’s proposed strategic digital asset reserve caused short-dated volatility to fall briefly before last weekend.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Choppy spot price movements have had an impact on funding rates, with BTC and altcoin rates reacting primarily to spot fluctuations, rather than long-term market views. ETH has sold off more sharply during declines, and hasn’t participated as strongly in relief rallies, resulting in the worst YTD performance among the five tokens in Trump’s proposed digital asset stockpile. This is reflected in funding rates, with ETH perpetual swaps showing strong demand for leveraged short exposure to further downside risk.

Investors continue to protect against further decline

Despite higher realized volatility increasing both short- and long-tenor implied volatility, options trade volumes remain low. Last Friday’s expiration of significant open interest was mostly for downside protection against a deepening sell-off. However, the options market has reverted to an inverted term structure, which had dissipated during last Friday’s White House crypto summit, with strong relative demand for short-dated put contracts.

Open interest in Solana (SOL) options declined at the end of February, with over $5M in calls and more than $3M in puts expiring and most positions not rolled over. Despite SOL trading 44% below its January ATH, most new positions are in calls. However, this new positioning is disappointingly weak, given SOL's inclusion in Trump’s crypto reserve announcement alongside BTC, ETH, XRP and ADA.

Beginner

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Bybit X Block Scholes crypto derivatives analytics report (Mar 14, 2025): Investors hedge further declines

BinaryX has rebranded to Four, uniting GameFi, IGOs, and MemeFi under one ecosystem. With BNX now FORM, Four continues to innovate in blockchain gaming."

Having launched in May 2021, BinaryX, which started out as a 

 (DeFi) platform, has continued to evolve and adapt to the rapidly changing blockchain landscape. However, in the spirit of adaptability and innovation, the platform switched to 

, focusing its attention on play-to-earn (P2E) games.

As a GameFi platform, BinaryX has also created an 

 (IGO) launchpad from which developers can launch GameFi projects.

Now, BinaryX has rebranded to Four in order to align with the mission of its 

 product, a launch platform for the meme coin ecosystem.

Let's learn more about BinaryX and the way it continues to shape the crypto market with innovative products and adaptable business models.

 hub for the development of GameFi projects, includes an IGO launchpad to facilitate developers in launching games. 

BinaryX began in 2021 as a decentralized derivative trading system that featured the use of 

. But in 2022, the BinaryX team gradually evolved its project into a GameFi platform in order to adapt to the increased demand for P2E games. Its aim is to make web3 games more accessible and approachable to the vast community of gamers.

BinaryX also developed an IGO launchpad to serve as a comprehensive hub for gaming developers to launch their GameFi projects, and for investors to receive early access to promising new play-to-earn games. Furthermore, the BinaryX team announced the incorporation of a 

 (DAO) into its GameFi ecosystem so that its community of token holders could participate in voting on governance matters.

In February 2025, BinaryX rebranded to Four in order to align with its latest product, Four.meme, which was launched in July 2024. Following the rebrand, its native token, BNX, would now become FORM to reflect the project's commitment to innovation and adaptability.

As one of the top web3 platforms on BNB Chain, BinaryX has continued to innovate and experiment with different business models to adapt to the blockchain landscape's fast-paced nature. To this end, BinaryX has the following diverse products under its wing.

BinaryX launched its Initial Game Offering (IGO) launchpad in May 2022 as a dedicated platform to support blockchain gaming projects. The launchpad helps game developers secure funding for decentralized video games. They also get a platform on which to build communities and accelerate their web3 game development.

By leveraging BinaryX’s expertise in GameFi and its existing user base, projects gain exposure to a vast community of crypto gamers. The platform offers early access to promising blockchain games, allowing investors to participate in token sales and 

 presales. BNX holders can use their tokens to vote for games' listings on the BinaryX platform, and they also receive rewards, such as game tokens and NFT 

Some notable games launched on the BinaryX IGO launchpad include 

. These games showcase BinaryX’s commitment to innovation in GameFi, integrating play-to-earn mechanics, NFTs and decentralized governance to help create immersive gaming ecosystems.

BinaryX's GameFi trading platform is a marketplace designed for seamlessly trading blockchain gaming assets, including NFTs, in-game tokens and virtual items. Launched to support the growing GameFi ecosystem, the platform enables gamers and investors to buy, sell, trade and auction assets from BinaryX-powered games in a secure and efficient manner.

 and DeFi principles, BinaryX ensures transparent transactions with minimal fees, and enhances liquidity for in-game assets while empowering players to maximize their earnings.

The BinaryX GameFi trading platform supports transactions involving 

In January 2022, BinaryX launched the BinaryX DAO, a first for a GameFi project, through which BNX token holders can participate in the project's community governance, determine airdrop and dividend ratios, and submit proposals on how to improve the BinaryX ecosystem.

Case in point: BinaryX's community participated in voting for/against the platform's rebranding to Four during a community vote that was held from Sep 21–23, 2024.

The BinaryX Treasury serves as the financial backbone of the BinaryX ecosystem, supporting the development and sustainability of its GameFi projects. Some sources of assets used to fund the treasury include initial capital injection by the BNX team, income from gaming activities, income from the IGO launchpad and profit from external investment.

Profits in the BinaryX Treasury are used to reward BNX stakers, incentivize BinaryX sidechain node providers and finance strategic investments in third-party projects.

BNX is the native token for the BinaryX platform. Its original maximum supply of 2.1 billion tokens was adjusted to 580 million after a community vote in late July 2024.

Distribution of the 580 million BNX tokens is as follows:

Following BinaryX's rebranding to Four, BNX will change to FORM, and holders will be allowed to exchange to the new token at a ratio of 1:1 (details to follow at a later date).

BinaryX has integrated a multi-token model. Apart from BNX, the other two tokens associated with the platform are as follows:

BinaryX officially rebranded to Four on Feb 21, 2025, following an overwhelming vote via its DAO, marking a significant transformation in its vision for GameFi and DeFi innovation. This shift comes with a revamped website, which will serve as a hub for the GameFi platform, IGO launchpad and Four.meme, a new addition to Four’s expanding ecosystem.

Following the rebranding, a 1:1 token migration from BNX to FORM is necessary in order to enhance the token's identity and align with the project's new direction. FORM remains on the BNB Chain, ensuring smooth compatibility with existing infrastructure.

 (CEXs) won’t need to do anything — the token swap to FORM will take place automatically. BinaryX will liaise with these exchanges to switch from the BNX contract address to the one for FORM.

 (DEXs), cold wallets and self-custody wallets will need to carry out a manual token swap based on a converter provided by BinaryX. To carry out this token swap, you’ll need to do the following:

 landing page (link will be provided at a later date).

4. Sign to authenticate your transaction to receive the FORM tokens.

5. Add the new FORM contract address into your wallet to see the new tokens.

You can buy BNX as a USDT Perpetual contract (

) on the Bybit trading platform. However, the BNXUSDT contract will be delisted on Mar 17, 2025, 9AM UTC, so make sure to close your open positions and cancel your active orders for BNXUSDT as soon as possible.

Over the years, BinaryX has consistently demonstrated strong performance. The rebranding of BinaryX to Four marks a bold step forward in its mission to impact the web3 space. This transformation reflects the project’s commitment to expanding its ecosystem, enhancing token identity and integrating innovative elements, such as Four.meme, alongside its GameFi platform and IGO launchpad.

By adapting to the evolving crypto landscape, Four is positioning itself as a comprehensive hub for web3 and gaming enthusiasts so that it can offer a seamless experience for gamers, investors and meme culture participants. The introduction of the FORM token ensures a more cohesive and recognizable branding, reinforcing Four’s long-term vision. Thanks to the smooth migration process from BNX to FORM, users can continue participating in the ecosystem while benefiting from enhanced liquidity and utility.

Four remains dedicated to GameFi innovation, supporting successful blockchain games such as 

, all of which feature play-to-earn mechanics, NFTs and decentralized governance. The revamped platform is designed to foster a dynamic gaming economy, support new game launches and provide a secure environment for trading digital assets. With its rebranding and expanded offerings, Four is set to lead the next wave of blockchain gaming and DeFi innovation, uniting gamers, developers and investors in a vibrant web3 ecosystem.

Intermediate

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From BinaryX to Four: A unified hub for GameFi, IGOs and MemeFi

Learn about the benefits of using Bybit Pay and the step-by-step instructions to get started with Bybit Pay now.

Traditional financial systems and blockchain-based ecosystems have long operated in silos, creating friction for users and businesses alike. 

 is a new payment solution that’s been designed from the ground up to solve this issue to make cryptocurrency transactions seamless for any users.

With the aim of mainstreaming crypto payment options, Bybit Pay has already begun partnering with traditional payment solution providers, enabling users to transact with cryptocurrencies through existing infrastructure. For example, with its recent 

, Brazilian users can now shop by using cryptocurrencies in a quick and effortless manner. 

In this article, we’ll explain the benefits of using Bybit Pay and provide step-by-step instructions for new users who want to get started with the platform.

With more than 60 million users on the Bybit platform, Bybit Pay empowers merchants with access to the global network of its vast user base. Meanwhile, users benefit from a seamless integration with web3 wallets that makes paying with crypto as easy as paying with fiat currency. The platform also offers collateralized payment tools that allow users to borrow against their NFT and crypto holdings. 

Through these innovative features, Bybit Pay blends the ease of traditional finance with the flexibility of cryptocurrencies, creating an ecosystem that benefits both users and merchants.

Bybit Pay can be accessed using the Bybit App on mobile and desktop. 

While filling in the form, make sure that the information you enter matches the information you’ve already provided during 

: As of now, only verified users in Brazil can make transactions using a Pix QR code.

Since the Pix integration, Brazilian users can use Bybit Pay wherever Pix is accepted. This opens up a vast network of offline establishments in the country, since Pix is Brazil’s leading instant payment system provider. 

In addition to offline establishments, Bybit Pay can also be used with a number of e-commerce providers for online shopping using cryptocurrencies. Bybit Pay will be available to users from other regions soon.

With the launch of Bybit Pay, Bybit is integrating crypto payments with traditional payment services providers — and vastly expanding the number of places where cryptocurrencies can be used.

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How to use Bybit Pay for effortless payments

All About P2P Platforms

P2P HotSwap is a gateway for you to exchange fiat-to-crypto and vice versa without any fees & without any intermediaries intervention. Learn how does it work.

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In the world of DeFi trading, peer-to-peer (P2P) functionality is nothing new. Still, its inception has revolutionized the way we interact in the trading scene, enhancing accessibility, liquidity and user control and fostering a more inclusive financial ecosystem for cryptocurrencies. P2P facilitates crypto-to-fiat exchange (and vice versa) directly with a user, rather than via intermediaries such as spot exchanges. 

 has gained popularity particularly because it reduces transaction costs and increases flexibility, giving users greater control over their trades. With P2P, users can negotiate their desired trading terms, including prices, exchange preferences, preferred payment methods and more. 

Bybit P2P features an easy-to-use platform to help facilitate the direct buying, selling and exchanging of cryptocurrencies using fiat currencies at optimal, agreed-upon prices between buyers and sellers. As trading demand increases, Bybit continues to evolve, offering more competitive asset conversion with the recent launch of P2P HotSwap. 

P2P HotSwap is a new service on Bybit that allows users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies via the P2P trading platform. Compared to its predecessor (P2P Trading), P2P HotSwap allows users access to more advertisers and third-party liquidity providers, and ensures more competitive rates for stablecoin conversions and access to a wider range of crypto assets. 

P2P HotSwap utilizes a transparent interface for users and advertisers to gain a competitive advantage. Buyers can access timely payment and release of the crypto assets they want to exchange, while premium (verified) advertisers gain the priority to be recommended first. 

P2P HotSwap empowers users with superior control and flexibility over their trades for negotiating deals, choosing their preferred payment methods and setting their own prices. 

In addition, this new feature optimizes trading of popular cryptocurrencies by leveraging the collaborative capabilities of P2P advertisers and external liquidity providers. This enables users to enjoy a more customized experience by adapting their specific requirements and minimizing the need for disclosure of personal information to third parties.

Here are the supported cryptocurrencies: 

: The supported fiat currencies and coins listed above are only for reference. Availability is subject to change.

Following is an overview of how Bybit P2P HotSwap works.

Scenario: Buyer to buy BTC with local fiat (USD) using P2P HotSwap

 on the platform to place an order for XYZ tokens, using the preferred local currency (USD).

 to provide conversion quotations to convert USD into BTC.

, who may offer a better quote to convert their USD into BTC.

4. The converted BTC will then be deposited into 

Scenario: Selling coins for USDT via P2P HotSwap

, but the order creation time exceeds 15 minutes, the order will automatically be canceled. In such cases, the coin the buyer wants to sell will be converted into an equivalent stablecoin (USDT), based on the conversion rate, and returned to the buyer’s 

: The coins will not be converted into a stablecoin (USDT) if the buyer hasn't made the payment.

 wants to sell 1 BTC for 30,000 EUR and create an order at 4:OOPM UTC. The following are three possible scenarios.

 releases 1 BTC to them, the transaction is complete. 

 successfully sells their BTC for 30,000 EUR.

 doesn’t complete payment, and manually cancels the order at 4:20PM UTC (within the 30-minute time frame for the advertisement payment). 

 is credited with their original BTC upon cancellation.

 has completed the payment, and at 4:20PM UTC (order creation time exceeds 15 minutes), the BTC to sell will be converted into USDT, based on the conversion rate, and returned to 

How Does Bybit Recommend Advertisers to Buyers on P2P HotSwap?

Bybit will match the buyers and sellers with the closest preferences, depending upon the user's preferences or the filter set, to ensure efficient and transparent transactions. 

Following are some rules we suggest advertisers follow for a more seamless match:

How Is P2P HotSwap Different From Bybit P2P Trading? 

Both platforms serve the same purpose, which is to help users buy and sell coins directly without the intervention of an exchange, and at minimal to no cost. However, P2P HotSwap boasts a more diverse functionality by featuring a wider selection of P2P advertisers and third-party liquidity providers on its platform. Users can also enjoy a more competitive price quote provided by the sellers that fit their criteria. 

Here’s the difference between the two at one glance:

However, the price quotation on P2P HotSwap will be invalid when the spread between the order price and the current market price exceeds the specified spread range to ensure a  reasonable transaction price. If the quote becomes invalid, you can refresh the page to get a new one.

The allowable spread range of each coin is as follows:

: Bybit reserves the right to modify the spread range at their sole discretion. Keep yourself updated by regularly reviewing the latest version of the 

Should You Choose P2P Trading or P2P Swap for Blue-Chip Coins? 

If you choose coins to place an order directly from the P2P advertising list, you’ll be buying or selling coins directly from/to the advertiser. However, if you place an order through the 

 page, our system will compare advertiser’s quote with the price provided by P2P HotSwap. Then, the system will match you with a more favorable price under the same payment method, ensuring you get the most competitive price.

There are plenty of advantages when using P2P HotSwap. Following are some of the reasons you may want to choose to transact with this feature. 

We analyze advertisers’ and buyers’ preferences based on their set filters to match them for compatibility. Sellers and buyers with the most similar settings are matched for the best exchange of assets. These settings can include their preferred currency on which to exchange, price quotes, and advertiser’s or buyer’s profile verifications.

Buyers on Bybit P2P HotSwap have a wider selection of sellers that isn’t just limited to advertisers. External liquidity providers can utilize this service to sell crypto assets for local fiat currencies. Users can enjoy a more competitive conversion rate that matches their preference for an exchange of crypto assets. 

Bybit P2P HotSwap offers a more efficient infrastructure for buyers and sellers to exchange their assets with a transparent and fair conversion quote, whether a small or larger order quantity. It’s all based on your negotiation terms — without centralized parties' intervention. 

Hefty transaction fees deter some users from trading crypto, but P2P trading can bridge the gap. Since no intermediaries are involved, users who frequently trade can greatly benefit from setting their preferred trading terms. The use of direct peer-to-peer transactions helps reduce dependence on centralized authorities, thus allowing better trading customization and experience. 

Bybit P2P HotSwap is a state-of-the-art trading platform that offers traders these significant advantages with its easy-to-use, intuitive platform. Nevertheless, users need to do their due diligence to evaluate a buyer's or seller's credibility before committing to any transaction. 

Explained: What Is Bybit P2P HotSwap?

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards