AI Summary
Show More
Quickly grasp the article's content and gauge market sentiment in just 30 seconds!
Key Highlights:
Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.
Positive sentiment around potential US trade deals has fueled a sixth straight day of gains in risk-on assets. Bitcoin, boosted by this sentiment and its own drivers, such as strong ETF inflows and regulatory progress, has outperformed gold and equities, rising 14% over the past month and consolidating at $94K. Bitcoin’s implied volatility has decreased significantly, while realized volatility has stabilized above 30%, a level that’s been its floor for the past 18 months.
Please check out the report’s highlights.
After rallying from $75,000 to over $95,000 in early April, Bitcoin has traded sideways at around $94,000 this week. Open interest remains stable for April, near all-time highs at $8B, while trade volumes have decreased to $10B per day. Lower trade volumes correlate with lower realized volatility, and perp positioning suggests that traders are waiting for another rally before committing to major positions, mindful of recent sell-offs.
Bitcoin’s volatility has declined, nearing a previously held floor of 35–40%, a level from which it has consistently rebounded over the past 18 months. Implied volatility has followed a 10-point drop in realized volatility to just above 30%, the floor of its 18-month range. Options activity shows a preference for puts, as BTC’s spot price is remaining stable. Volatility smile skews favor out-of-the-money calls, particularly for long-term options, while short-term options are nearly neutral.
Bitcoin's volatility smiles now favor out-of-the-money (OTM) calls across all tenors, recovering from a put-call skew that strongly favored puts earlier in April. Ether is showing a similar recovery at short tenors, but longer-term skew remains slightly bearish. While ETH funding rates are positive, longer-term option smiles are skewing toward puts, thus presenting mixed sentiment. For BTC, derivatives markets are indicating clearer bullish signals, including positive funding rate spikes, positively sloped futures yields and a skew toward OTM calls.
#BybitLearn #BybitResearch