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Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.
Risk-on sentiment has faded across US equities and global bond markets, with stocks sliding post-holiday and long-dated G7 yields hitting record highs. BTC has declined since Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, briefly bottoming out at $107K, while ETH is down 5% over the past week. Altcoins like SOL have shown relative strength.
Derivatives markets are mixed: funding rates remain broadly positive, but options pricing reflects bearish sentiment, with elevated premiums for out-of-the-money puts on BTC and ETH. Implied volatility has risen, likely in anticipation of upcoming macro events — including the NFP and CPI reports and the Fed’s September meeting, as markets currently assign a 97% probability to an interest rate cut. In options, bearish positioning is intensifying, with ETH skew now aligning with BTC’s downside bias.
Please check out the report’s highlights.
Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes
BTC volatility has shifted notably since Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Implied volatility (IV) initially dropped to 27%, reflecting priced-in expectations ahead of the event, but later climbed to 40% on August 26 as BTC sold off from its $117K highs. Short-tenor ATM IV now sits at 36%, tracking higher realized volatility and signaling renewed expectations ahead of the September 17 FOMC meeting — despite a 97% market-implied probability of a 25 bps rate cut. With BTC trading 10.1% below its ATH, options markets remain bearish. Skew toward out-of-the-money puts intensified post-selloff, and has consistently been more negative for BTC than for ETH over the past ten days.
Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes
BTC and ETH options have seen a surge in short-dated put buying, driving volatility smiles sharply bearish, as out-of-the-money puts are now trading at significantly higher implied volatility than calls. While ETH initially lagged behind BTC in reflecting this sentiment, its 25-delta skew has now aligned at −4.29%, signaling growing downside concern. In contrast, perpetual markets remain more constructive, with funding rates for both assets remaining positive — suggesting that the bearish options flow may be driven by hedging activity. With key macro events ahead (including NFP, CPI and the Fed’s September meeting), markets appear braced for elevated volatility.
Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes
On August 28, 2025, LINK and PYTH surged after the US Department of Commerce announced it would distribute macroeconomic data — such as GDP and PCE inflation — on-chain via Chainlink and Pyth’s decentralized oracle networks. Chainlink will deliver data to ten blockchains, while Pyth Network will initially offer quarterly GDP releases going back five years, with plans to expand coverage.
LINK rose 7.7% to $25.80 within an hour, but PYTH outperformed, jumping over 50% to $0.18 and later reaching $0.24 — a gain of more than 100%. The announcement briefly lifted other oracle tokens, such as UMA and XYO, though their rallies quickly faded. Despite the price action, funding rates showed little enthusiasm: LINK held steady at 0.01%, while PYTH turned negative, hitting −0.017%, indicating skepticism about the sustainability of the move.
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