Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics (Jan 15, 2026): BTC at 2-month high spurs signs of turning derivatives sentiment

Sideways trading in the final stretch of 2025 was upended by culminated into a sharp and aggressive move higher this week in BTC spot price to a two-month high, nearly touching $98K. That move dragged the rest of the spot market up with it, and has had a strong effect on derivatives markets. 

Funding rates for select altcoins have shot higher, while open interest in perpetuals futures contracts has increased, signalling new longs entering the market in hope of capturing any further upside moves in spot price. Volatility smiles have priced out their bearish put premium and now trade close to neutral for BTC and ETH.

Additionally, spot ETFs for both majors show positive inflows year-to-date. ETH has also benefitted from idiosyncratic, on-chain tailwinds: demand for staking continues to soar, with 30% of the total ether circulating supply currently being staked. Despite the breakout from a month-long period of consolidation and various macro risks in the form of US-Iran tensions, December’s NFP release, December’s CPI report, a grand jury subpoena issued to the Federal Reserve, volatility has continued to trend lower.

• Perpetuals: Open interest has ticked up coinciding with the breakout in spot price, with funding rates for altcoins showing signs of optimism.
• Options: BTC and ETH volatility smiles are now pricing in a neutral skew for short-dated optionality – a shift from the previously bearish put-skew. We’ve seen that before already this year however, when the move to $94K in early January saw a neutral skew that eventually reverted back to puts as BTC failed to hold that price level.