Bybit X Block Scholes options volatility report (September 2025): BTC realized volatilities fall to a historic low while skew turns bearish; put spread is a good fit in this market

Key Highlights:

Our monthly report delves into insights from options volatility to inspire your next crypto move.

• Realized volatility collapse: Realized volatilities for BTC, ETH and SOL spot tokens hit historic lows during early September, despite macro headwinds and the Fed’s renewed rate-cutting cycle.

• Implied volatility premium: Options markets continue to price elevated implied volatility, maintaining a premium over realized levels. This dislocation, typically driven by event risk, has narrowed post-FOMC resolution.

• BTC skew turns bearish: BTC options skew remains more bearish than that for ETH across tenors. August marked a sentiment shift from bullish to bearish, with volatility smiles pricing downside protection at a premium. Despite BTC reaching a $124K ATH, OTM puts dominate, signaling heightened bearish positioning.