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Sir John Templeton famously cautioned investors that the most dangerous phrase in markets is “This time it’s different”. New narratives may emerge, but the forces of cycles, sentiment and risk never disappear.
Yet, we’re confronted with the possibility that this time it might just be different.
The four-year cycle has been used as a guidepost to what we can expect in the upcoming period and this view determines forward expectations. To believe the cycle is intact implies a sell-off into 2026, while a broken cycle allows for crypto to take a new path.