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Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, as well as futures, options and perpetual contracts.
Crypto price movements remain heavily influenced by US president Trump’s policies. Recently, several SEC cases against crypto firms were dropped, which is positive for the industry. This was followed by Trump’s announcement to include BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA in a US strategic crypto reserve. However, ongoing bearish sentiment in risk assets, highlighted by a decline of over 5% in the S&P 500 since its February all-time high, has negatively impacted crypto.
Consequently, BTC and ETH have experienced heightened volatility, resulting in an inversion of their at-the-money implied volatility term structures, with strong demand for short-term protective puts.
Please check out the report’s highlights.
President Trump’s announcement on Mar 2, 2025 regarding a US crypto reserve to include BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and ADA led to a sharp rally in their spot prices. However, funding rates for these tokens have remained subdued, compared to previous highs seen before Trump’s inauguration on Jan 20, 2025. Over the past week, long positions have paid a consistently positive rate across all coins, indicating a lack of strong short demand and potentially robust demand for long positions.
The rally in spot prices following Trump’s announcement of a US crypto strategic reserve to include ETH quickly reversed, as his ongoing tariff pledges contributed to bearish sentiment in risk assets. This volatility has pushed realized volatility above options-implied levels to monthly highs, leading to increased demand for short-term options. The term structure of volatility has inverted, with short-term volatility skewing toward puts as traders seek protection against potential downside.
Open interest in Solana (SOL) options declined at the end of February, with over $5M in calls and more than $3M in puts expiring, most of which weren’t rolled into new positions. Despite SOL trading 44% below its January all-time high, the majority of new positions have been in calls. However, this new positioning is disappointingly weak, given SOL's inclusion in the list of tokens for a crypto strategic reserve announced by Trump alongside BTC, ETH, XRP and ADA.
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