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Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.
This past week delivered a barrage of macro developments that pushed crypto’s already volatile nature into overdrive. It began with the US Senate’s bipartisan passage of the GENIUS Act — a milestone move aimed at regulating stablecoins. Midweek, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed a cautious, data-dependent stance as the FOMC held interest rates steady. Then came a rapid escalation in geopolitical tensions: a US military intervention in the Middle East sparked an Iranian retaliation, ultimately giving way to a negotiated ceasefire and peace agreement. Markets reacted sharply throughout, with spot prices plunging before rebounding. Meanwhile, implied volatility mirrored the broader uncertainty with its own dramatic swings.
Please check out the report’s highlights.
Despite a volatile week geopolitically, open interest in perpetual futures held steady around $9–10B. A brief dip on June 22 — following Iran’s strikes on a US base in Qatar — quickly rebounded amid reports that Iran had alerted President Trump beforehand, signaling de-escalation. Altcoin open interest (OI), especially that of ETH, rose from $2.2B to $2.6B, while BTC’s share remained flat but dominant at nearly 60%.
BTC’s spot price whipsawed over the past week amid intense geopolitical developments. On June 22, 2025, it dropped below the $100K mark for the first time since early May, after President Trump confirmed the US had launched a military strike against Iran. However, this decline was short-lived and BTC rebounded in the following days, pushing back above $106K as investor sentiment stabilized.
Despite these sharp price swings, implied volatility in BTC options stayed relatively anchored. Front-end IV only crept up from 35% to 45%, and even at its peak, it didn’t invert the volatility term structure — a contrast to ETH, for which inversion did occur. The closest BTC came to a curve inversion was after reports that Iran planned to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil trade. That news pushed short-dated IV in line with the 180-day option.
Since the ceasefire announcement, market calm has returned. Front-end IV has eased further and is now sitting at around 32%, even lower than where it stood before the conflict. In short: BTC’s spot price was reactive, but the options market appears to be signaling a tempered view of lasting volatility ahead.
Volatility smiles for BTC and ETH skewed sharply bearish earlier this week, with demand shifting toward out-of-the-money puts. BTC’s 25-delta put-call skew plunged to −8.89%, down from a recent June high of 5.56%. ETH mirrored this move, with its 7-day skew bottoming at −11% before recovering to a milder −0.9%. Meanwhile, sentiment in the options space now closely reflects that of perpetual futures, as both turned negative at the height of the Israel–US–Iran conflict, and have yet to stage a meaningful recovery. Funding rates for both BTC and ETH continue to oscillate between positive and negative, underscoring lingering market uncertainty.
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