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Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.
August has begun on a more bearish note, compared to July, with derivatives market positioning indicating that traders were bracing for a steeper decline than what has actually occurred. Although spot price losses have slowed, sentiment remains subdued. The past week brought a mix of narratives for crypto markets: President Trump extended his reciprocal tariff program on his August 1 deadline, weaker-than-expected US jobs data stirred uncertainty around the Fed’s policy direction and the SEC’s “Project Crypto” offered bullish momentum for tokenization and Layer 1 blockchains.
In perpetuals, funding rates dropped across multiple tokens as spot prices reacted to the disappointing jobs report. And in options, ETH continues to trade at nearly double the premium of BTC and is showing a greater tendency to invert its volatility term structure during major market moves — evident in ETH’s weekend inversion post–jobs report, contrasting with BTC’s lack of response.
Please check out the report’s highlights.
Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes
ETH’s short-term implied volatility continues to trade at nearly twice the premium of BTC options with similar maturities, reflecting traders’ greater willingness to elevate front-end volatility during sharp market moves. After the US NFP report, ETH’s short-tenor volatility spiked to 73%, surpassing the 60-day IV at 67% and marking a swift term structure inversion. As last week’s rally faded, and ETH fell 4% over seven days, implied volatility declined. Notably, the spot pullback triggered a pronounced skew toward puts, driven by active downside hedging rather than reduced demand for bullish call options.
Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes
SOL’s realized volatility spiked above 90% during its late July rally, but has since declined alongside a 7% drop in spot price from its $204 peak. Despite the pullback, SOL options markets have remained muted, with trading volumes over five times lower than mid-July levels when altcoins were outperforming BTC. Open interest remains heavily skewed toward call options, consistent with prior trends.
Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes
BTC’s at-the-money implied volatility continues to decline, even as its spot price pulled back from above $118K to $112K last week. This aligns with realized volatility, which has flattened around 30%, indicating the move wasn’t particularly sharp. Options positioning remains largely unchanged, with put volumes and open interest still dominant, offering little new insight into sentiment.
On the macro front, uncertainty persists: President Trump extended reciprocal tariffs post his August 1 deadline, including 15% levies on trade-surplus nations, while unexpected labor market weakness and revised jobs data have cast doubt on the pace and scale of potential Fed rate cuts.
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