Bybit X Block Scholes options volatility report (February 2025): Market braces for imminent volatility

Key Highlights:

Our monthly report delves into insights from options volatility to inspire your next crypto move.

Volatility Patterns: February 2025 experienced significant volatility spikes at the start and end, with a calm mid-month period indicating market sensitivity to external factors.

Macroeconomic Influence: US president Donald Trump's tariff announcements drove sharp reactions in crypto and traditional markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of these asset classes.

Importance of Vigilance: Despite a trend of decreasing volatility, low levels can precede sharp price movements. Traders must stay informed about macroeconomic developments that could impact market dynamics.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Volatility dynamics in February

BTC at-the-money options’ implied volatility at several constant tenors. Source: Block Scholes

February 2025 presented a unique landscape for cryptocurrency volatility, particularly for Bitcoin (BTC). The month can be divided into three distinct phases: a volatile beginning, a calm middle and a tumultuous end. At the outset, BTC witnessed significant price corrections due to macroeconomic factors, particularly President Trump’s announcements regarding tariffs on neighboring countries. These announcements triggered sharp reactions within both crypto and traditional markets, leading to a spike in realized volatility.

Midway through the month, however, BTC's volatility dropped to a historically low level of 29%. This period of subdued volatility was notable, as it marked the lowest level of realized volatility BTC had experienced in nearly 18 months. This calm phase belied the underlying tensions in the market, as traders remained cautious but still anticipated further developments regarding economic policies. The low volatility during this period reflected a temporary stabilization, but it was clear that external factors were still at play, creating an environment ripe for speculation.

As February 2025 drew to a close, volatility surged again, largely driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and specific developments in the crypto space. By the end of the month, Bitcoin’s price had fallen below $80K, and Ethereum (ETH) had lost all of its gains since the November 2024 US elections. This dramatic shift underscored the volatile nature of the crypto market, and highlighted the speed with which market sentiment can change in response to new information.

Influence of macroeconomic events

BTC spot movements. Dotted lines correspond to select macroeconomic tariff-related events. Source: Block Scholes

February’s volatility wasn’t merely a product of internal market dynamics: it was also heavily influenced by macroeconomic events. President Trump's tariff policies created significant uncertainty, affecting traditional markets and the crypto space. The market reacted sharply to these announcements, with crypto assets often acting as leading indicators for broader market movements. The initial announcement of tariffs led to a wave of selling, as traders sought to de-risk their positions ahead of anticipated market corrections.

Throughout the month, several key announcements contributed to volatility. For example, the tariffs on steel and aluminum and the uncertainty over their implementation created a speculative environment. Traders were particularly sensitive to these developments, leading to pronounced price movements in both crypto and equities. This interconnectedness illustrates the growing relationship between crypto markets and traditional financial systems, as macroeconomic factors can have profound impacts on asset prices across the board.

The volatility patterns observed during February 2025 also reflect a broader trend whereby external economic factors shape market sentiment. The anticipation of policy changes and macroeconomic developments created an environment of hypervigilance for traders, who were ready to react to any news that could influence market conditions. This heightened sensitivity underscores the need for market participants to stay informed about macroeconomic trends and policy announcements, as these factors are likely to continue influencing volatility in the future.

Persistent sensitivity to external catalysts

Despite a long-term trend of decreasing volatility in the crypto market, February 2025 made it clear that significant macroeconomic and policy-driven catalysts can still provoke sharp price movements. The month began and ended with pronounced volatility spikes driven by uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies, demonstrating that even in a generally declining volatility environment, external factors can have outsized impacts.

BTC realized volatility (60-minute returns across 7-, 14-, 30- and 90-day lookback windows). Source: Block Scholes

Low volatility levels experienced in the middle of February, when BTC's realized volatility dropped to 29%, serve as a reminder that calm periods can be deceptive. The historical context of this floor level indicates that such low volatility often precedes significant reversals. As market participants observed the rising volatility toward the end of February, it became evident that the calm was likely temporary — and that uncertainty was increasing.

Looking ahead, expectations of volatility in the crypto market have rebounded in response to ongoing economic uncertainties. The announcement regarding Trump’s proposed strategic crypto asset stockpile further complicated market dynamics. Initially, traders anticipated new demand for crypto assets, but the clarification that the stockpile wouldn't involve new purchases led to disappointment and a swift decline in implied volatility — a scenario that illustrates the complex interplay between market expectations and actual policy actions.

#BybitLearn #BybitResearch