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Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.
This week, markets focused on a key FOMC meeting, primarily for insights into future monetary policy in 2025 rather than the expected 25 bps rate cut. The release of mixed signals led to significant intraday volatility, but options markets quickly returned to a slow decline in implied volatility. This is noteworthy because realized volatility for BTC and ETH has fallen to extreme lows (around 20% and 40%, respectively), while implied volatility remains elevated, sitting 10 and 20 points higher. Open interest in perpetuals is near an all-time high. In the options market, short-tenor implied volatility saw a brief rise during the FOMC event before continuing its downward trend in search of lower realized volatility.
Please check out the report’s highlights.
Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes
Galaxy Digital purchased 1.2M SOL ($306M) on Sep 15, 2025, totaling 6.5M SOL ($1.55B) over five days, following its $1.65B private placement with Multicoin Capital and Jump Crypto for Forward Industries' Solana treasury strategy. That same day, Helius Medical Technologies (Nasdaq: HSDT) raised $500M to adopt SOL as its primary reserve asset, backed by Pantera Capital, Summer Capital and others. On September 18, FalconX withdrew 413,075 SOL ($98M) from exchanges, reducing circulating supply and potentially supporting SOL’s price.
Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes
The FOMC meeting triggered BTC’s first volatility term structure inversion since Trump’s tariff shocks earlier this year. Low options volume during the event suggests the spike occurred in thin liquidity, amplifying panic-driven price moves before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Since then, realized volatility has plunged to 20%, creating a wide gap with longer-term implied volatility.
Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes
ETH showed the strongest reaction to the FOMC meeting among major cryptocurrencies with liquid options. Conflicting signals — such as unanimous support for the 25 bps rate cut, and inflation expectations above 2% through 2026 — triggered a spike in short-term implied volatility, inverting the term structure. However, options markets quickly priced out the bearish put skew seen since late August. Open interest and trading volumes stayed flat, indicating the move was brief.
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