Timeline: How 24/7 “TradFi” reacted to weekend attacks

A week removed from the initial attacks in this ongoing Middle East conflict, we revisit the timeline during those early stages, and how 24/7 markets allowed alert traders to react according to live developments:

• Feb 27 at 3:38PM ET: US President Donald Trump gave the order to proceed with Operation Epic Fury, with the public in the dark.

• Feb 28 at 1:15AM ET: Volume spike in onchain perp markets tracking TradFi assets (such as precious metals and equities) - some 12 minutes before the first official report.

• Feb 28 at 1:27AM ET: Iranian media and global networks such as Al Jazeera began reporting on strikes.

• Feb 28 at 2:30AM ET: Trump announces to the public that U.S forces had begun operations

And those higher volumes, which began at 1:15AM ET, continued through the announcement over an hour later at 2:30AM ET.

• Feb 28 at 10:30AM ET: Rumours began circulating about death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, but was met with negligible market reaction.

• Feb 28 at 12:00PM ET: Khamenei's death was officially confirmed, and the following market reaction was even more muted.

Such muted price reaction to confirmation of Khamenei's death suggested that maximum geopolitical uncertainty had been being priced in from initial strikes.

By midday Saturday, the onchain markets had fully absorbed the shock and were trading retracement rather than anticipating further catalysts.

This gives an insight into 24/7 markets and highlights crypto as the most liquid market to navigate geopolitical tension over weekends.

Gold-USDC

XAUTUSDC went into the weekend around the same price as spot gold (Bybit: XAUUSD+) – closing Friday's session at $5,267.5 vs $5,280.19 respectively, with a spread of about $13. 

Within a few hours of the Iran strike, volumes substantially increased and the perpetual futures surged to as high as $5,462.3 while traditional venues were closed.

Funding rates tell a story of conviction, with rates spiking positive immediately after the strikes, indicating longs are willing to pay 0.40% every 8 hours equivalent at the peak to hold positions.

This quickly flipped negative as initial panic subsided and participants started to sell.

Note: Gold-USDC (Hyperliquid HIP-3, TradeXYZ deployed) tracks CME XAUUSD via oracle during CME open hours.

PAXG Perpetual Futures

At Friday’s CME close, PAXG perpetual futures traded at a $14 premium to tradfi gold ($5,294 vs $5,280) taking a liquidity premium into account. 

Price quickly reacted to strikes in Iran before any news release of the incident, peaking at $5,576.20, which is about $112 above xyz:GOLD's peak of $5,464.

This is higher than the peak in xyz:GOLD despite being a more mature market and having significantly more volume and market depth. 

At CME open on Sunday, March 1st @ 11:00PM UTC, XAUUSD+ kicked off the new trading week at $5,301.68 with PAXG perpetual futures ($5376.5) at a near-$75 premium – over four times the normal $17 spread.

In contrast to the funding rates for spot gold perps, PAXG perp rates were negative for almost the entire weekend (indicating that shorts were paying longs to pull the perp price to spot). 

Unlike the perps tracking Gold and Silver, the PAXG perp tracks tokenised gold with spot trading available onchain over the weekend.

The difference in behaviour may indicate hedging or arbitrage activity between perps or spot PAXG tokens, which was not possible in spot gold or silver over the weekend.