Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Aug 22, 2025): Traders brace for further slide as 90-day BTC skew turns negative

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Cryptocurrency spot prices began declining on Aug 14, 2025, following a hotter-than-expected PPI inflation report — the sharpest wholesale inflation rise since June 2022. The sell-off has continued more gradually this week, as traders await Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for guidance on US monetary policy. 

Derivatives data are reflecting heightened uncertainty around the economy and inflation, with reduced appetite for aggressive market positioning. Open interest in perpetual futures has dropped to $14B, without major liquidations, indicating traders are remaining cautious. Daily trading volumes have fallen and funding rates briefly turned negative, while options markets show a clear tilt toward downside protection. Bearish sentiment in BTC and ETH options is evident not only in short-tenor volatility smiles favoring out-of-the-money puts, but also across longer maturities, with the 90-day BTC skew turning negative — signaling expectations of further declines ahead.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Traders pause major moves ahead of Jackson Hole as futures open interest falls

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

After hitting record open interest in perpetual futures last week, crypto markets have been shaken by conflicting US inflation data. A benign CPI print initially boosted hopes for a September Fed rate cut, but these were dampened by a stronger-than-expected PPI report — the sharpest wholesale inflation rise since June 2022. With mixed signals clouding the outlook, traders have paused major moves ahead of Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Spot prices have declined broadly, and open interest has dropped to around $14B across all tokens. The absence of large liquidations suggests that traders are simply waiting for clearer policy direction.

BTC traders get cautious as 90-day skew turns negative

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

BTC and ETH skews shifted sharply toward out-of-the-money puts at the start of last week’s sell-off, echoing past reactions such as early August’s labor data–driven pullback. However, this time, the bearish sentiment spans the entire term structure — unlike August, when longer-tenor skews stayed positive. Even the 90-day skew has turned negative, suggesting broader uncertainty. The move isn’t clearly tied to spot price declines — which have been gradual — nor is it likely just positioning for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, given its reach beyond short-term horizons.

ETH term structure turns flatter than BTC’s

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

ETH’s spot price has dropped over 7% in the past week amid broad market de-risking, with spot ETFs seeing four straight days of outflows following a strong July. ETH options are reflecting bearish sentiment, pricing in a volatility premium for out-of-the-money puts. Unlike BTC, ETH’s implied volatility remains elevated at 65–70%, supported by a rise in realized volatility from 68% to 74%. Notably, ETH volatility is diverging from BTC: ETH’s realized volatility is climbing, while BTC’s is declining, and ETH’s implied volatility is trading at nearly twice the premium of BTC options. And last but not least, ETH’s volatility term structure is flat, contrasting with BTC’s upward-sloping curve.

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