Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Sep 11, 2025): What does in-line CPI speak about the market? Derivatives data show macro tailwinds are pushing altcoins higher, while BTC/ETH sees protections in options

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Spot prices for BTC and ETH remained flat last week, reinforcing bearish sentiment in options markets. BTC volatility smiles continue to favor OTM puts over calls, while short-dated ETH options are still pricing in downside risk. 

However, altcoins have outperformed following a macro push. Notable outperformers include SOL and Worldcoin (WLD), boosted by digital asset treasury news. Eightco Holdings surged after announcing the first Worldcoin treasury, lifting WLD prices.

Macro factors — especially weakening US jobs data (nonfarm payrolls, JOLTS) — have been driving market sentiment. Despite expectations for three potential Fed rate cuts this year, BTC and ETH haven’t responded positively. 

Please check out the report’s highlights.

BTC options remain bearish despite macro tailwinds

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Bearish sentiment continues to dominate BTC options, despite softer macro data prompting markets to price in nearly three Fed rate cuts by year end — typically a bullish signal. July’s JOLTS showed job openings at a 10-month low (7.18M), and June marked the first negative payrolls print since December 2020.

BTC remains range-bound between $109K–$113K, reflecting trader uncertainty. A weak US economy is threatening equities, while a controlled slowdown could spur risk-on behavior via increased liquidity. Volatility smiles have favored OTM puts across the term structure since mid-August, reinforcing the cautious outlook.

Altcoins such as SOL are outperforming 

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

SOL’s ATM implied volatility has dropped sharply, reflecting both lower realized volatility and a broader decline across major crypto assets. Despite this, SOL has outperformed BTC and ETH, rising over 4% this week (from $199 to nearly $220) and up 23% over the past month.

Fueling this strength is Forward Industries’ $1.65B capital raise — backed by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto and Multicoin Capital — to launch the largest SOL-focused digital asset treasury. Its plan to actively engage in Solana’s DeFi markets could further energize the Solana ecosystem.

However, overall funding rates for most tokens are still quite bullish

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

BTC funding rates remain neutral with a slight bullish lean, staying positive all week but capped below 0.01%, thus signaling restrained optimism. ETH funding has also steadied at neutral-to-positive levels after early September volatility.

A key divergence persists between options and perpetual markets. Despite flat spot prices, ATM implied volatility for BTC and ETH has declined, while volatility smiles continue to favor OTM puts. Since early September, short-tenor skews have stayed negative, reflecting bearish sentiment in options — unlike perpetuals, as traders remain cautiously optimistic.

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