Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report dives into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Spot prices have jumped significantly in the two weeks following the November 5, 2024 U.S. elections, propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs, while Ethereum hasn’t kept pace. The implied volatility term structure has inverted again in tandem with these spot price movements, although longer-dated tenors remain relatively stable. Derivatives market indicators reflect strong positive sentiment: perpetual funding rates are consistently positive, open interest in futures contracts is rapidly increasing and options skew remains firmly positive.

Open interest in futures has surged, indicating heightened market participation and a growing interest in leveraged exposure due to recent price movements. Similarly, open interest in perpetual contracts has sharply increased, fueled by rising trader confidence and a growing demand for leveraged positions in light of recent market rallies. Meanwhile, the implied volatility term structure continues to invert in alignment with spot price increases, demonstrating a sustained correlation between spot prices and volatility.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Futures Open Interest Reaches ATH Along With Price

Perpetual swap open interest has been increasing alongside futures, with a consistent rise in open positions over the past week reaching all-time high activity levels. This trend suggests that traders are actively pursuing leveraged exposure in response to the ongoing spot rallies, aiming to capitalize on the rising spot prices. Notably, there’s been renewed interest in Ethereum (ETH), reflected in rising trading volumes. 

Perpetual swap funding rates have reached exceptionally positive levels, indicating that long positions are confident enough to pay these rates to sustain their leveraged exposure. This trend has consistently been observed across all tokens, with a noticeable rise in funding rates since Nov 10, 2024. The persistently high funding rates highlight the strength of the bullish sentiment, which is also evident in the increasing open interest in futures contracts. This aligns with the recent spot price action, demonstrating significant upward momentum.

Option Volatility Term Structure Inverts 

The implied volatility term structure for Bitcoin has inverted amid the recent spot rallies over the past few weeks, indicating heightened market uncertainty and expectations of imminent price movements. However, levels haven’t exceeded the highs seen before the elections, and longer-dated tenors remain firmly range-bound. Concurrently, open interest in Bitcoin options has risen significantly, with a notable increase in put trading volumes. Open interest in puts has slightly surpassed calls, despite the persistently bullish market outlook indicated by the volatility smile skew.

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Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Nov 20, 2024): Market Becomes Extremely Positive About Bitcoin as Volatility Curve Turns Invert

Learn how to join Bybit's VIP Program, where you can realize exclusive benefits — from up to 50% off trading fees and tailored interest rates to instant OTC trades up to $10M.

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How to Sign up to Become a Bybit VIP Trader

In the following section, you'll find a step-by-step guide that shows you how to join the Bybit VIP Program.

The first step to becoming a VIP trader is to open a Bybit account (if you haven't already done so). Simply 

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After becoming a VIP trader on Bybit, don't forget to maintain your VIP status to continue enjoying the exclusive perks and benefits.

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Intermediate

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How to Become a Bybit VIP: Your Guide to Exclusive Benefits

LETSTOP is a drive-to-earn mobile app that monitors phone distractions while driving. Learn more about how it works in this article.

Smartphone distractions have created an unprecedented road safety crisis worldwide. 

: texting behind the wheel makes drivers six times more likely to crash than drunk driving does — yet millions of drivers still use their phones while operating vehicles.

This article explores how LETSTOP is transforming safe driving into rewarding experiences through blockchain technology. We'll examine its drive-to-earn model, reward system, tokenomics and potential as both a road safety solution and an investment opportunity.

 is a drive-to-earn mobile app that monitors phone distractions while driving. Users earn STOP tokens for phone-free driving through a gamified system that transforms daily drives into rewarding experiences.

A life-changing car accident caused by a distracted driver running a red light inspired LETSTOP co-founder Almog Nissan to reimagine road safety. Together with co-founder and CEO Dor Levy, they envisioned rewarding safe driving, rather than just punishing dangerous behavior.

The founders built a platform that combines automotive technology, cryptocurrency and AI to revolutionize road safety through rewards. This innovative approach has quickly gained traction, with over 50,000 users logging over 3 million kilometers of safe driving since the app’s launch.

Distracted driving claims thousands of lives annually, with 

, of which 9% are directly linked to phone use. LETSTOP aims to tackle this crisis as follows:

Each of these objectives works harmoniously to support LETSTOP's ultimate mission of transforming road safety into a rewarding experience that benefits both individual drivers and society.

The LETSTOP app operates through a sophisticated system that monitors and rewards safe driving through the following apps and features:

The result is a dynamic system in which better driving habits unlock greater earning potential.

The following five core features power LETSTOP's drive-to-earn ecosystem.

LETSTOP uses a dynamic 40-level system to make safe driving rewarding. As drivers earn XP through distraction-free journeys, they advance from Level 1's 2% bonus toward Level 40's 70% boost. Through this gamified approach, daily commutes become opportunities to climb the ranks while building safer driving habits.

LETSTOP Credits are the core currency of the platform, earned directly through safe driving achievements. Earning rates directly scale with user level, vehicle type and subscription tier as follows: PRO subscribers enjoy unlimited earning potential, while PLUS and LITE tiers are capped at 300 and 150 monthly credits, respectively.

In the STOP Store, users invest their earned credits into virtual cars with unique earning multipliers. From the basic model's 2% bonus to the Jazzster GN's 150% boost, each vehicle offers different strategic advantages for maximizing rewards.

Beyond vehicles, the store features mystery boxes containing rewards from 10 to 450 credits, as well as car upgrades and subscription boosts. Users can also access a voucher marketplace to redeem credits for real-world rewards through LETSTOP's partnership network.

LETSTOP's triple-boost system combines vehicle multipliers for immediate earnings acceleration, a level-progression system for sustained growth and a 5% referral program for community expansion. Premium membership unlocks enhanced benefits across three tiers, while special events create time-limited opportunities for increased rewards.

The platform's comprehensive rewards system operates across three membership tiers, each one tailored to different user needs. LETSTOP PRO (at $9.90 monthly) offers unlimited credit earning potential and exclusive benefits. The PLUS tier provides a balanced option at $4.90 monthly with a 300-credit earning cap, while the free LITE tier allows users to earn up to 150 monthly credits.

Beyond direct earnings, the rewards system incorporates partner vouchers, cryptocurrency conversion options and community features, such as leaderboards. Achievement rewards recognize milestones in users' safe driving journeys, while the upcoming cryptocurrency integration will allow users to convert their efforts into tradeable STOP tokens.

LETSTOP has shown consistent progress, with the following key milestones already achieved:

Looking ahead to 2025, LETSTOP plans to implement the following key developments:

These developments aim to strengthen LETSTOP's position as a leader in drive-to-earn while furthering its mission to enable safer roads worldwide.

STOP is an SPL token built on the Solana network. It’s designed to bridge safe driving behavior with cryptocurrency rewards. The STOP token implements an annual halving mechanism to ensure long-term value preservation, similar to Bitcoin's model, but accelerated to align with the project's growth trajectory.

STOP has a max supply of 100 million tokens, to be distributed in the following manner:

The growing adoption of LETSTOP's drive-to-earn app and its impact on road safety directly influence STOP's price trajectory. While cryptocurrency forecasts remain speculative by nature, multiple price analysis platforms project the following for STOP:

These forecasts suggest a positive long-term outlook for STOP, driven by the growing drive-to-earn sector and LETSTOP's innovative approach to road safety. However, STOP's future value will ultimately depend upon user adoption, platform development and broader market conditions.

Looking to trade LETSTOP tokens? Bybit now offers the STOP/USDT Spot trading pair. To get started, you’ll first need to create a Bybit account, then fund it with cryptocurrency and navigate to the 

STOP shows promising potential in the drive-to-earn sector, though investors should carefully weigh both its strengths and potential risks before making investment decisions.

While STOP's innovative approach to road safety and its strong initial traction distinguish it in the market, potential investors should 

 and invest no more than they can afford to lose.

As smartphone distractions continue to endanger lives on roads worldwide, LETSTOP offers an innovative path forward. Through its innovative drive-to-earn model and STOP token ecosystem, the platform transforms daily commutes into safer roads and user earnings opportunities, showing how digital innovation can effectively “drive” positive behavioral change.

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LETSTOP (STOP): Turning Daily Rides Into Profitable Journeys

FDUSD, a stablecoin from First Digital Labs, is now live on Sui as a native token, joining other stablecoins like USDC and AUSD.

The S&P 500 ended flat amid mixed earnings and geopolitical concerns, as investors awaited Thursday's data and Fed commentary. Coindesk Indices, an index measuring broader cryptocurrency market performance was up by 2.01%, with Bitcoin rising by 1.91% and Ether dropping by 0.59%, in the past 24 hours.

Today's top performer is LUMIA, which surged 16.1% following the announcement of its partnership with Cobox to bridge real-world assets and virtual ownership.

Lumia (LUMIA), founded in 2024, is a Layer 2 blockchain solution leveraging the Polygon CDK to enhance scalability, liquidity, and interoperability. It addresses challenges like data availability and cross-chain interactions by incorporating AvailDA for decentralized data and Polygon AggLayer for cross-chain functionality, enabling efficient and flexible dApp development. 

 to integrate real-world assets (RWAs) into its immersive, player-owned universe. This collaboration aims to enhance asset liquidity, trading, and gameplay experiences, bridging digital and physical realms for more tangible and vibrant virtual ownership.

Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data of 

, a stablecoin from First Digital Labs, is now live on Sui as a native token, joining other stablecoins like USDC and AUSD. This launch reflects growing institutional confidence in Sui, which has seen significant growth in TVL and DeFi volume. FDUSD, backed by reserves in Asian banks and US Treasury debt, offers DeFi users a reliable, US Dollar-pegged stablecoin, bridging traditional finance and cryptocurrency ecosystems.

Yesterday, the total flow into Bitcoin Spot ETFs is $146.9 million, with $0 million in GBTC and $146.9 million in non-GBTC products.

: the Spotlight Badge, which requires minting through the Spotlight Protocol and joining a Spotlight circle; the Impossible Finance Badge, which involves completing social tasks, claiming the TIDIA faucet, staking TIDIA on Impossible Finance, and then claiming the badge; and the SNGLR Badge, where users connect their wallet, follow artists, mint IP assets, tweet, and provide personal details to claim their badge. More badges are coming soon!

Beginner

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FDUSD Launches as Native Stablecoin on Sui, Strengthening DeFi Ecosystem

Crypto Insights

Institutions still favor Bitcoin over Ether, even though the latter is likely getting a green light from the SEC for its Spot ETFs. 

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Bybit Data: Institutions Continue to Favor Bitcoin

Following the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs on January 10, 2024, Bitcoin’s price saw a 46% increase in February 2024 and peaked in mid-March with an all-time high of $73.7K. Despite the pullback in April and rebound in May, institutional holdings of Bitcoin continued to increase persistently throughout the half-year period. 

On the other hand, Ether’s position by institution saw a surprising decrease in May 2024, dropping from 10.8% on April 30, 2024, to 9.9% on May 31. Institutions have been acting as the smart money this time, with their Ether positions increasing in April as the market lost faith in the SEC’s ETF approval, and reducing in the wake of the approval.

In short, institutions still favor Bitcoin over Ether, even though the latter is likely getting a green light from the SEC for its Spot ETFs. The reasons behind this are likely a combination of TradFi’s accumulation of Bitcoin and the subdued attraction of Ether Spot ETFs.

Impact of TradFi’s Accumulation of Bitcoin

BTC Positions From Top Hedge Funds Are Quite Small

Following Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals in January 2023, the 13F reports for Q1 2024 are the first of their kind to be released that cover the position change for traditional asset managers. 

It’s surprising that over half of the top 25 hedge funds invested in Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the first quarter of 2024. 

Top Hedge Funds’ Bitcoin Position % as AUM. Source: Bybit

While Bitcoin wasn’t dominant, its presence in the portfolios of major hedge funds is still significant. For example, at Millennium Management, Bitcoin Spot ETFs, including IBIT and FBTC, account for the 18th-largest position in the firm's portfolio, comprising over 0.3% of its total assets under management (AUM).

This suggests that even traditional, non-crypto-focused hedge funds are starting to view Bitcoin as an attractive investment. Known for their flexibility and embrace of volatility, hedge funds may be drawn to Bitcoin due to its potential for outsized returns as compared to more traditional asset classes.

Prior to the recent disclosure of these 13F filings, crypto-native hedge funds had been the primary institutional buyers of Bitcoin. However, the fact that mainstream, non-crypto hedge funds are now accumulating Bitcoin positions speaks to the growing market optimism around Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

These ETFs provide established asset managers with regulated investment vehicles to gain exposure to Bitcoin, which offers unique investment characteristics, such as its limited supply and lack of correlation with other asset types. As such, Bitcoin is clearly gaining recognition among a wider range of institutional investors — even if it remains a relatively small part of their overall portfolios for now.

Once Traditional Asset Classes Are Starting to Invest in Bitcoin — And It Won't Be a One-off Event

It's unlikely that investors have already allocated their full targeted exposure to Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2024. The true extent of their positions will likely become clearer when the next round of 13F filings is released in mid-August.

Traditional hedge funds, in particular, probably haven’t invested their entire desired Bitcoin allocation so far this year. This is especially true given that Bitcoin has continued to set new all-time highs, making current investment costs less appealing from a trading perspective.

Instead, the Bitcoin positions we've seen reported so far in Q1 2024 are likely just initial stake-building by these institutional players. Hedge funds, with their typical 5-year investment horizons, are usually more focused on buying low and selling high to maximize returns; they aren’t the 

ers that some other crypto investors have become. In particular, the lowest Bitcoin price point observed so far in Q1 2024 has only been around $58,000. This relatively mild drawdown may not have provided a sufficiently attractive entry point for these sophisticated investors to deploy their full intended allocations.

We'll likely get a better sense of hedge funds' true Bitcoin exposures and strategies when the next round of regulatory filings is disclosed in mid August. The current data only provides a partial glimpse into institutional crypto adoption trends.

When it comes to Bitcoin Spot ETF investments, we believe pension funds stand out as some of the most impressive institutional players. As long-term, risk-averse investors, pension funds are poised to be the true HODLers in this space.

Based on the latest 13F filings, Wisconsin Investment Board appears to be one of the few pension funds that’s been allocated to Bitcoin Spot ETFs so far. This makes sense, as pension funds generally have much longer investment horizons as compared to more active traders, such as hedge funds.

Similar to the way that hedge funds are approaching Bitcoin, we don't believe Wisconsin's investment in the Bitcoin Spot ETF is a one-off. Just as Warren Buffett gradually built up Berkshire Hathaway's position in Apple over 2016 and 2017, we expect pension funds to increase their Bitcoin exposure methodically over time.

Another potentially significant source of long-term Bitcoin investment could come from corporate America. While early movers like MicroStrategy and Tesla have already allocated corporate treasury funds to Bitcoin, we may see more firms follow suit and use Bitcoin Spot ETFs as a way to hold the cryptocurrency.

 cash balance to direct Bitcoin holdings, rather than through an ETF. However, holding Bitcoin via a Spot ETF could be an easier option for many corporations looking to reduce custody and counterparty risks.

Cash held by Corporate America (Feb 2024). Sources: Harvard Business Review, Bybit

The data presented in the table above suggests that if corporate America were to allocate just 5% of its aggregate cash reserves into Bitcoin, that would be equivalent to 25.5% of Bitcoin's total market cap. This highlights the sheer scale of the potential demand that could be unleashed if more major corporations start treating Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, in a similar fashion to early movers like MicroStrategy and Tesla.

Will Bitcoin Continue to Outperform Ether?

Bitcoin Dominance Halts Since 19b-4 Approval of Ether Spot ETFs

The ETHBTC ratio has been in a downtrend since September 2023, likely due to anticipation of Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals. It briefly bounced above 0.05 in January after the BTC ETF launch, as investors betted on an upcoming Ether Spot ETF.

However, the ratio has since continued falling, only recently bottoming out as Ether Spot ETFs near approval. At 0.053, the current ETHBTC level remains well below historical averages, indicating Bitcoin's outperformance.

Ether Spot ETFs Are Unlikely to Repeat Bitcoin Spot ETFs’ Success

Approval of 19b-4 documents by the SEC was an initial step toward the eventual approval of Ether Spot ETFs. The market expects the SEC will need to sign off on the registration statements, known as S-1s, submitted by the fund issuers, likely sometime this summer.

The key question is whether we'll see another rally in Ether and other cryptocurrencies after the expected ETF approval in July 2024.

In the lead-up to the SEC's green light, Ether jumped from $3,000 to $3,700 — a 20% increase as compared to just an 11% rise in Bitcoin over the same period. This narrowed the performance gap between the two largest cryptocurrencies.

In our view, the market has largely priced in the approval of an Ether Spot ETF, as there are no major uncertainties surrounding this imminent event. Compared to Bitcoin's gains since Q4 2023, Ether has only about 30% room to catch up.

However, the SEC's specific classification of Ether as a commodity or security in its official ETF approval could still fuel another rally, as the market may then anticipate approval of similar ETFs for Solana, XRP or other altcoins.

It's also worth noting approved Ether Spot ETFs will likely lack a staking feature, per the revised application forms. This may drive some traditional financial institutions to consider holding Ether directly through regulated custodians, rather than a Spot ETF.

In our view, both Bitcoin and Ether will continue to see price appreciation as more crypto ETFs launch, with the broader crypto market likely remaining highly correlated.

 from Bybit Institutional suggests that Bitcoin and Ether are the mainstay assets in institutional portfolios. Therefore, the slight outperformance of Bitcoin against Ether may not make a huge difference to the overall returns of these diversified crypto holdings.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin may likely continue to be the preferred choice for traditional finance (TradFi) institutions newly entering the crypto market, given its status as 

In contrast, Ether's positioning as the "app store" of the crypto ecosystem may not be as unique an attribute for these TradFi players. Many Web 2.0 companies have stronger fundamentals than those of applications built on Ethereum, which also faces intensifying competition from other Layer 1 protocols.

Bitcoin Bull Rally Persists, Likely Due to Institutional Accumulation; Bitcoin Might Outperform Ether Near-Term

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