Ethereum surged 29% this week, breaking a 10-week downtrend and catching short sellers off guard with $400M liquidated. 

The S&P 500 extended its rally with a nine-day winning streak, its longest since 2004, as optimism over potential trade deals and upcoming Fed and earnings updates lifted sentiment. Gold rose to $3,245 on trade uncertainty and Fed rate cut hopes. CoinDesk Indices, which tracks the broader crypto market, fell 1.50% in the past 24 hours, while Bitcoin and Ether dropped 0.10% and 0.51%, respectively. Trade these markets and more with up to 500x leverage on Bybit MT5 using this 

Today's top performer is AI16Z, which surged 7.0% after Bonsai's smart media protocol integrated with Eliza to empower agent-driven social content creation.

elizaOS (AI16Z), launched in October 2024, formerly ai16z, is a Solana-based DApp that uses a DAO and an AI agent, "Marc AIndreessen," to manage community-driven investments in tech and crypto projects. 

, lets developers create agent-driven social media scripts and templates using ElizaOS plugins. The Bonsai Client, its first implementation, enables easy deployment of these smart media agents on platforms like Lens. Builders can explore these tools and compete for prizes in the Lens Spring Hackathon.

Check out the latest prices, charts, and data of 

Ethereum surged 29% this week, breaking a 10-week downtrend and catching short sellers off guard with $400M liquidated. Despite muted ETF flows and neutral derivatives sentiment, ETH’s dominance remains unshaken—boasting $64B in TVL, dwarfing Solana, BNB Chain, and Tron combined. With fresh momentum from the recent pectra upgrades and Trump distancing from rival altcoins, all eyes are now on a potential push toward $2,700. 

BTC spot ETFs saw $920.9M in net inflows this week, driven by $1.09B into non-GBTC funds despite $171.5M outflows from GBTC. Since inception, total net inflows stand at $41.1B.

 are now live and claimable as a small bonus for users farming the upcoming Aster (AST) airdrop. By depositing BNB to mint asBNB, users can start earning points toward both the main airdrop and future ecosystem rewards. Optional perp trading can boost points further, but simply holding asBNB is enough to qualify.

Beginner

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Ethereum outperforms with a 20% rally as fresh capital flows in and undervaluation signals flash

Our monthly report delves into insights from options volatility to inspire your next crypto move.

: April 2025 saw BTC's implied volatility surge above 75% due to tariff chaos, but it collapsed to 35% within a week, indicating a surprising short-term drop in volatility expectations despite ongoing macro uncertainty.

: BTC's return above $100K was met with muted enthusiasm in the derivatives market, suggesting that 

traders no longer view this level as a significant psychological barrier, and the rally isn’t likely to be sustained.

: ETH significantly outperformed BTC with a 23% rally, leading to increased demand for short-dated calls and a positive shift in the options market, highlighting renewed bullish sentiment.

: Historical trends suggest a potential summer lull in volatility in store for BTC, raising questions about whether this pattern will repeat in 2025 amidst ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

Bitcoin’s volatility plunges in late April

April 2025 witnessed significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market, particularly influenced by US trade policies. As President Trump announced steep reciprocal tariffs, the crypto landscape experienced sharp fluctuations. Bitcoin (BTC) initially demonstrated resilience, despite widespread sell-offs in equities and the US dollar, only to succumb to a decline from $88K to $75K by early April. This period was characterized by a dramatic rise in implied volatility that peaked above 75% as traders sought protection through short-dated puts. However, as the tariffs faced moderation, implied volatility plummeted to 35% by mid-April, marking the lowest level since early March.

Interestingly, while short-tenor volatility collapsed, 

the back end of BTC's term structure remained elevated, signaling that market participants expect heightened volatility in the mid-term

. Amidst this backdrop, realized volatility fell below the five-year seasonal average, paralleling similar trends in previous years and suggesting a 

. The historical pattern contrasts that BTC often experiences a rebound in volatility heading into May, raising questions about whether this trend will persist.

Subdued derivative response suggests Bitcoin rally might not endure

The market's reaction to BTC's resurgence above the $100K threshold was notably subdued compared to previous instances. While BTC rallied 20% following the initial tariff sell-off, the derivatives market displayed a muted response. The 25-delta put/call skew, a measure of market sentiment, indicated only a slight bias toward out-of-the-money calls, contrasting sharply with sentiment previously when BTC first breached the $100K mark in December 2024. This lack of exuberance suggests that traders no longer view $100K as a significant inflection point, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rally. 

Meanwhile, funding rates and implied volatility — though still bullish — didn’t reach the extremes observed in earlier months, indicating more cautious market sentiment. The relationship between BTC's spot price and implied volatility suggests that although traders are optimistic, they’re waiting for BTC to approach previous all-time highs before adjusting their volatility expectations.

Ethereum's option data points to further rally

In stark contrast to BTC, Ethereum (ETH) displayed remarkable resilience and outperformed major cryptocurrencies, gaining 23% overnight following favorable trade news. This rally catalyzed a surge in demand for short-dated calls, pushing front-end volatility expectations significantly higher. The response from the derivatives market was robust, inverting the term structure and indicating renewed bullish sentiment toward ETH, even as it’s trading well below its all-time high.

The ETH options market exhibited a shift from neutral to slightly negative skew, to a 10% bias favoring out-of-the-money calls, reflecting the market's confidence in ETH's potential to regain lost ground. Despite overall macroeconomic uncertainty, the demand for ETH options suggests that traders are optimistic about Ether’s future price movements.

In conclusion, April 2025 highlighted the complex interplay between macroeconomic factors and cryptocurrency market dynamics. While BTC faced challenges in eliciting strong responses from derivatives markets upon recrossing the $100K threshold, ETH's performance indicated a divergence in market sentiment. As traders navigate the evolving landscape, the potential for seasonal volatility patterns and the influence of macroeconomic developments will remain critical factors in shaping future market expectations.

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Bybit X Block Scholes options volatility report (April 2025): Data suggests Bitcoin rally might not endure, but Ether sees further upside

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

After mostly trading sideways at the end of April 2025, a US-UK trade deal sparked a crypto rally. BTC surged past $100K for the first time since February, but it’s ETH's performance that captured the derivatives market's attention. 

A 23% increase in ETH's spot price led to an inverted term structure and a spike in front-end volatility. The put/call skew for ETH shifted from a bearish bias to a nearly 10% skew toward OTM calls. Other sentiment indicators, such as perp funding rates and futures yield, also supported the rally. In contrast, while BTC's funding rates and skew have increased, its implied volatility remains low at 40%, over 30 points below ETH's 7-day implied volatility.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

ETH’s record performance since 2021 was propelled by positive term structure

ETH has significantly outperformed BTC and the top 10 cryptocurrencies, marking its largest single-day gain since May 2021. The options market has reflected this enthusiasm, with implied volatility for short tenors rising sharply and inverting ETH’s term structure, thus contrasting with BTC's muted, positively sloped structure. The 7-day tenor for ETH is now trading at a 33-point premium over that for BTC. 

While puts dominate BTC's open interest, ETH is seeing the opposite trend. On May 8, 2025, options volumes surged over $120M, more than double the typical monthly volume, with $60M more in calls than puts. ETH now boasts a positive futures curve and funding rates, as well as a strong skew toward OTM calls.

ETH sees exceptionally bullish put/call skew

ETH's substantial outperformance in the current crypto rally has led to bullish sentiment in its derivatives markets. Funding rates have surged, futures yields are strongly positive and the put/call skew has shifted significantly toward OTM calls, now close to 10%. This starkly contrasts with early April, when the skew was 20% toward OTM puts. Although ETH has underperformed (relative to BTC and other "ETH killers"), it has rebounded in this rally, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising after spending most of the year declining.

Open interest for Bitcoin options increased, with implied volatility remaining suppressed

The announcement of the new US administration's first trade deal, nearly 30 days into Trump's 90-day tariff pause, jolted crypto markets, pushing BTC back up above $100K. Surprisingly, implied volatility has remained suppressed, failing to invert BTC's term structure, with front-end volatility trading at around an 18-month low of 35-40%. On May 8, 2025, options volumes surged, with call volume reaching $189M, reversing last week's trend of higher put volumes. Meanwhile, open interest rose steadily to exceed $300M, the highest level this month, but remains significantly larger for puts than for calls despite the price increase.

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Bybit X Block Scholes crypto derivatives analytics report (May 9, 2025): Ether’s put/call skew turns remarkably more bullish than Bitcoin’s

This article explores how Sign works, its flagship products (such as TokenTable, SignPass and EthSign), its native token (SIGN) and how to trade SIGN on Bybit.

Sign is an omnichain attestation infrastructure that empowers users and developers to verify real-world claims on-chain. Built for a more transparent and decentralized future, it eliminates the need to “just trust” and enables everyone to verify with cryptographic proof.

This article explores how Sign works, its flagship products (such as TokenTable and EthSign), its native token (SIGN) and how to trade SIGN on Bybit.

 is an omnichain attestation protocol designed to make it easy for anyone to verify the authenticity of any claim — 

. Whether it’s a document, credential or user identity, Sign transforms traditional trust models into verifiable, cryptographic attestations. 

Sign’s mission is to replace outdated, opaque validation systems with transparent, 

 proof — enabling a future where “verify” replaces “trust.” Through tools like schema registries and digital signatures, Sign empowers users to bring accountability and integrity to digital interactions.

Sign is developed by the team behind EthSign, a 

-native e-signature and agreement platform. Its core team brings deep experience in 

 development and cross-chain integrations.

The project is backed by top-tier investors, including Sequoia Capital China (now known as HongShan Capital Group), Mirana Ventures, HashKey Capital and Hack VC.

This strategic funding positions Sign as a foundational layer in the web3 infrastructure stack.

Sign allows users to create attestations — cryptographically signed statements that prove the validity of claims, such as credentials, achievements or actions. These digital proofs can be verified by anyone at any time, making them tamperproof and transparent.

Sign’s key technical elements include a schema registry that ensures consistent data formatting, digital signatures proving authenticity, and on- and off-chain attestations with support for revocation or updates

This system acts like a programmable layer for web3, bringing a new level of trust to identity, credentials and data exchange.

TokenTable is Sign’s flagship token distribution platform. It helps projects unlock, distribute and manage tokens transparently and securely at scale.

It uses Sign’s attestation engine to verify token unlocks, 

 and vesting schedules, ensuring traceable, auditable token flows.

SignPass is a blockchain-based identity solution that brings real-world credentials on-chain. One notable implementation is the Sierra Leone PR Card, used for the world’s first government-approved on-chain permanent residency program.

SignPass offers encrypted on-chain records for easy 

 verification, physical ID issuance for daily identity use and streamlined digital application systems for cross-border access.

It showcases the way blockchain can modernize public sector services worldwide.

EthSign is a decentralized contract signing platform that lets users create, sign and store legally binding agreements directly on-chain. It removes intermediaries and ensures documents are immutable and accessible.

EthSign reinforces Sign’s mission by bringing traditional documentation into the realm of verifiable web3 attestations.

The SIGN token is the native utility token powering the Sign ecosystem. It’s used for:

The total supply is capped at 10 billion SIGN, with 1.2 billion tokens in circulation. While the fully diluted valuation (FDV) sits above $746 million as of May 7, the circulating market cap is approximately $89.6 million. SIGN continues to gain traction across exchanges and developer networks.

SIGN is available for trading on Bybit via Spot trading and as a USDT Perpetual contract. Bybit offers up to 75x leverage for the SIGNUSDT Perpetual contract and supports secure, high-liquidity spot trading.

Start exploring the future of attestations with SIGN on Bybit today.

Intermediate

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Sign (SIGN): Web3 protocol for trustless attestation

Crypto Insights

We project a low chance of Ether Spot ETF approval in May, mainly due to regulators' silence.

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What’s Happening Now With the SEC’s Expected Approval of Ether Spot ETFs?

Ether Spot ETFs would track the performance of Ether, directly holding ETH. They differ from Ether Futures ETFs that are available in most markets, which require the periodic rolling of futures contracts and can possess tracking errors. Please refer to this 

The firms applying for listing Ether Spot ETFs in the U.S. are BlackRock, VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Grayscale, Fidelity, Invesco and Galaxy Digital (through a joint proposal), in addition to Franklin Templeton. 

The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision several times because it claims to need more time to consider the applications. However, the deadline for the earliest applicants, BlackRock and Fidelity, is one month away (May 23, 2024). 

It’s widely perceived that SEC rejection would lead to legal action from the applicants.

The market has been building up its anticipation of Ether Spot ETFs since the approval of the listing of Ether Spot ETFs in January 2024.

However, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said at that time that the Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals shouldn't "signal anything about the commission’s views as to the status of other crypto assets under the federal securities laws."

What’s the Chance of SEC Approval of Ether Spot ETFs in May 2024?

Ether’s price surged immediately after the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs back in January, and the market anticipates approval of Ether ETFs in the U.S. later this year. However, remarks from SEC Chairperson Gary Gensler on multiple occasions this year have dampened expectations.

In our view, the chance of Ether Spot ETF approval remains dim — despite Hong Kong’s surprising approval of them in April — as the agency is likely to stick to its own assessment before approving Ether Spot ETFs . 

ETH/BTC Ratio from July 2023 to April 2024. Source: Bybit

The dwindling ETH/BTC ratio also illuminates the lowering probability of Ether Spot ETF approval in the U.S., which has dropped below 0.05 —a multi-year low — as shown above. 

Open interest by strike price (ETH options with May 10, 2024 expiration dates). 

Open interest by strike price (ETH options with May 31, 2024 expiration dates). Source: Coinglass

However, the market hasn’t given up, as reflected in the exercise price of ETH options expiring before and after the deadline for the SEC’s decision on ETH Spot ETFs. The exercise price of calls expiring on May 10, 2024, centers on a $3,300~$3,400 interval, while the exercise of calls expiring on May 31, 2024 is remarkably higher, falling between $3,600 and $3,800.

 a substantial increase in Ether’s position by institutions as Bitcoin’s outperformance against Ether continues to test new lows. This suggests that institutions may have prepared for the approval of Ether Spot ETFs, at least in the medium term, following the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

The key consideration by the SEC lies in whether the ETH token is a security or commodity. Simply put, a token closer to the definition of security might have a higher chance of approval, as the SEC may determine it to be in compliance with Federal securities laws. 

 (PoW) models with no yield generation and is considered the most decentralized cryptocurrency due to its diverse user base. SEC Chairperson Gary Gensler has 

 several times that PoW tokens are unlikely to meet the definition of securities under federal laws. As Ether shifts from PoW to 

 (PoS) in 2021, Ether has a higher chance of qualifying as a security and less chance of getting approved.

In addition, the concentration risk of Ether staking could make it look more like a security. 

 of the total staked ETH on the network. However, the popularity of restaking in recent months may erode Lido’s dominance, and may indirectly ultimately lead to the approval of Ether Spot ETFs in the U.S.

What Makes the SEC’s Approval So Important?

Regions with Approved Bitcoin and Ether Spot ETFs (as of April 23, 2024).

Although Hong Kong is likely ahead of the U.S. in launching Ether Spot ETFs, as their approvals are expected to be completed by the end of this month (April 2024), not many markets worldwide are offering them yet. 

Despite the U.S, not being the first mover, the impact of approval in the U.S. market would likely be more profound due to the nation’s sheer capital size. Bitcoin Spot ETFs have attracted capital of more than $54 billion so far, leaving other markets in the dust in terms of size since their launch there three months ago. As such, it’s expected that Ether Spot ETFs would bring more capital than any of the existing legalized markets combined. 

If Ether Spot ETFs Are Approved, How Much Capital Can They Bring? 

Source: Compiled by Bybit (data as of April 23, 2024)

Based on the performance of Bitcoin Spot ETFs so far, it’s estimated that Ether Spot ETFs would accumulate at least $16 billion in capital.

Source:Compiled by Bybit (data as of April 23, 2024)

Nonetheless, if the SEC allows a version of staked Ether ETFs, the expected AUM is beyond imagination, as the current native yield from Ether staking amounts to 3.3%, higher than many of its competing asset classes.

Could Approval of Spot Ether ETFs Trigger Another Crypto Rally?

The possible approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in September 2023 reversed Bitcoin's bearish trend, creating a new all-time high right after the actual ETF approval. Bitcoin's outperformance gave rise to an ensuing rally from other tokens, as speculation arose from upbeat market sentiment. As Bitcoin Spot ETF approval hit the headlines, new investors were tempted into the cryptocurrency and sustained the rally.

UST Market Capitalization. Source: CoinGecko (as of April 23, 2024)

The above chart indicates the market capitalization of USDT, the largest cryptocurrency. The increase in its market cap arises from increasing supply as it’s pegged to the U.S. dollar. Historically, the increasing supply coincided with the surging price action of the broader cryptocurrency, as the supply represents the on-chain capital. 

Therefore, the possible approval of Ether Spot ETFs will likely sustain the current bull market. New investors are expected to inject new capital into the crypto market, further boosting the supply of USDT. What’s more, approval could spur the broader price increase of Ethereum ecosystem tokens, primarily DeFi and 

What’s the Chance of Ether Spot ETF Approval in May? Can the Market Sustain Another Rally?

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