Gold is projected to surpass $3,000 per ounce in 2025, driven by strong macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

At the heart of gold's potential surge is the current macroeconomic landscape that’s characterized by persistent inflation and anticipated monetary policy shifts. Inflation rates in the U.S. are expected to remain above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, creating an environment in which gold is expected to serve as a crucial hedge against currency devaluation. When inflation erodes purchasing power, investors often turn to gold to preserve their wealth.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve has signaled a shift toward monetary easing, with market expectations indicating potential interest rate cuts in the coming months. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it a more attractive investment as compared to interest-bearing assets, such as bonds and savings accounts. With real interest rates projected to remain low or even go negative, gold could experience renewed demand as a safe store of value.

Geopolitical tensions further bolster gold’s appeal. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the strained U.S.-China relationship and the Russia-Ukraine war, create an atmosphere of uncertainty that drives investors toward safe-haven assets. During times of geopolitical instability, gold has historically seen increased demand as investors seek to mitigate risks associated with market volatility.

As global tensions escalate, the demand for gold is likely to rise, reinforcing its status as a reliable hedge against financial instability. Investors tend to flock to gold during crises, viewing it as a secure asset that retains its intrinsic value, especially when other markets are under pressure.

Another significant factor contributing to the bullish outlook for gold is the unprecedented demand from central banks around the world. In 2024, central banks collectively purchased over 1,000 metric tons of gold, marking one of the highest levels of accumulation in recent history. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, particularly among countries like China and Russia that are actively reducing their reliance on U.S. dollar reserves as part of a broader de-dollarization strategy.

This central bank buying provides a strong structural support for gold prices, minimizing downside risks. As these institutions accumulate more gold, the resulting scarcity in the market could lead to higher prices. The growing demand from central banks underscores the renewed confidence in gold as a strategic reserve asset, especially amidst economic volatility and geopolitical tensions.

From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a robust uptrend, trading above key moving averages and nearing critical resistance levels. If gold successfully breaks through the psychological barrier of $3,000 per ounce, momentum could carry it toward higher price targets, potentially reaching $3,200 or even $3,500. 

, such as relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD), suggest that gold remains in a bullish phase, indicating further upside potential.

As gold approaches these key resistance points, technical traders will closely monitor its price movements. A successful breach of the $3,000 level could trigger momentum buying, propelling prices higher as investor confidence grows.

Finally, rising investor sentiment plays a crucial role in gold’s potential price surge. Increased inflows into gold-backed 

 (ETFs), in addition to speculative positioning in futures markets, reflect strong confidence among both retail and institutional investors. As ETF holdings rise, it signals renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven investment.

This optimism is bolstered by a general shift in market sentiment as investors are increasingly turning to gold amid concerns over economic stability and inflation. The combination of robust technical indicators, macroeconomic pressures and favorable investor sentiment positions gold favorably for a significant price increase in 2025.

In summary, gold is well-positioned to reach $3,000 per ounce in 2025, driven by a combination of persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank demand and positive technical indicators. As investors seek refuge in safe-haven assets, gold’s intrinsic value and historical performance during times of crisis will make it an attractive option for preserving wealth. The confluence of these factors suggests that gold's upward trajectory could continue, making 2025 a pivotal year for this precious metal.

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Bybit Commodity Insight Report: Why Gold Is Poised to Reach $3,000 in 2025

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, as well as futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Macro headwinds are impacting the crypto market, with a sell-off that began over the weekend deepening this week. BTC, ETH and most altcoins are declining alongside equities, gold and treasury yields, though derivatives markets are showing little bearish sentiment or increased volatility expectations. Among perpetuals, there are record consistent positive rates across most markets, indicating a reset in positioning. Meanwhile, ETH retains a volatility premium over BTC, but its term structure hasn’t inverted as sharply as in earlier sell-offs this month.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Funding Rates Largely Positive Amid Sell-Off

Despite risk-off sentiment across asset classes this weekend and early this past week, USDT-denominated perpetual contracts have shown their most consistently positive funding rates within the past month. While these rates haven't reached the bullish levels of early December 2024, most have returned to a neutral level of 0.01%, signaling a reset in positioning due to recent market movements.

Tuesday's intensified risk-off sell-off led to a significant spike in BTC put trade volume as traders hedged against further declines. Unlike ETH, which leans bullish on calls, BTC's open interest is balanced between upside and downside protection. The volatility term structure is flat again, typical during sharp market moves, but this reflects a decline in longer-dated options, rather than a rise in short-term expectations.

As the sell-off in risk-on assets deepened this past week, ETH outperformed BTC. ETH derivatives markets are showing stronger sentiment, with higher call trade volumes indicating greater demand for upside positioning as compared to puts. However, ETH's volatility term structure has inverted more sharply than BTC's, as seen in previous significant market moves since last November (2024), with front-end volatility levels 15 points above those of BTC options with a similar tenor.

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Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Feb 26, 2025): Reset in Sentiment Brewing as Fund Rates Turn Positive

Explore four essential tips to help you accumulate more points, optimize your strategy and claim the best rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge.

With the rise of gamified crypto events, EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge stands out as one of the most exciting opportunities for users to earn rewards while engaging with both Bybit and Mantle Network. This limited-time event offers participants a shot at a 1,000,000 MNT prize pool when they complete on-chain and trading-related tasks. 

To help you maximize your rewards and ensure you get the most out of this event, in this guide we’ll break down four essential tips to help you accumulate more points, optimize your strategy and claim the best rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge.

EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is a limited-time campaign that rewards participants with a share of a 1,000,000 MNT prize pool when they complete both Bybit and on-chain tasks. Players earn "wishes" that can be used to enter Lucky Draws or climb the leaderboard for greater rewards.

This campaign, hosted by Bybit in collaboration with Mantle, blends gamification with 

 engagement, offering users multiple ways to win. Participants can choose to rely on chance via the Lucky Draw or strategically allocate their wishes to compete on the leaderboard. The event runs from Mar 6, 2025 to Mar 27, 2025, making it a limited-time opportunity to accumulate rewards while exploring the Mantle ecosystem.

4 Tips to Maximize Your Wishes and Rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge

To make the most out of EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge, you need to strategize your wish allocation, complete as many tasks as possible and take advantage of all available earning mechanisms. Here are four essential tips to maximize your rewards:

One of the best ways to earn high-value rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is by competing on the leaderboard. There are a total of five rounds, and the rewards are higher with each passing round. 

The more wishes you allocate toward leaderboard rankings, the higher your position and the larger your rewards. However, since the leaderboard is dynamic, your rank can change based on the activity of other participants.

Since leaderboard positions fluctuate, it’s recommended that you monitor your ranking regularly and adjust your strategy accordingly. Players who accumulate the most wishes by the end of each leaderboard round will receive the greatest rewards.

 that each round’s rewards and wishes are calculated independently, and any wishes spent in a round won’t carry over to the next round.

If you prefer an element of surprise, the Lucky Draw is your best bet. By spending wishes on Lucky Draw attempts, you earn the chance to win instant prizes. The Lucky Draw operates on a first-come, first-served basis, so the earlier you participate, the better your chances of securing top-tier rewards.

Since rewards are limited, it's advisable to use your wishes early before the top prizes run out.

An easy way to earn free points in this campaign is by holding Mantle (MNT) and/or Mantle Restaked ETH (cmETH) in your Bybit account. By simply keeping these assets in your wallet, you’ll receive additional wishes, increasing your chances of winning more rewards.

This passive method of earning wishes ensures that you accumulate extra points without actively completing tasks, making it one of the simplest ways to boost your rewards.

Another hidden gem for doubling your rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is through Layer 3. Participants who complete specific Layer 3 quests will receive extra bonuses, including double rewards on certain tasks.

By leveraging Layer 3 bonuses, you can significantly boost your total wish count, increasing your chances of securing leaderboard positions or hitting big wins in the Lucky Draw.

If you’re looking for a fun and rewarding way to engage with the Mantle ecosystem, EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is definitely an event worth joining. With 1,000,000 MNT up for grabs, both casual users and seasoned traders can benefit from this campaign.

The event's dual-reward system allows participants to tailor their strategy based on their preferences. Whether you enjoy the thrill of luck-based rewards or prefer the competitive edge of leaderboard climbing, this campaign offers something for everyone.

Additionally, holding MNT and cmETH provides passive earnings, while Layer 3 integration presents an opportunity for double rewards — making the experience even more lucrative for active participants.

EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is a limited-time, gamified rewards campaign that blends trading, staking and on-chain interactions. By completing tasks, holding Mantle assets and strategically using your wishes, you can maximize your rewards and secure your share of the 1,000,000 MNT prize pool.

This event runs from Mar 6, 2025 to 27, 2025, so now is the best time to get started. Are you ready to explore the Mantle ecosystem and claim your rewards? Join EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge today!

Beginner

how to participate in ecogalaxy mantle surge

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Join Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle, vote for top AI projects and compete for a share of a $1M prize pool. Earn rewards while shaping the future of AI in crypto.

The Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle is an exciting and innovative trading and voting event that aims to identify and support high-potential AI projects within the cryptocurrency space.

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to revolutionize blockchain technology, this competition offers users a unique opportunity to engage with emerging AI-driven crypto projects while earning substantial rewards of up to $1 million.

 (AI) and cryptocurrency is reshaping blockchain and 

 — autonomous programs powered by machine learning — are revolutionizing the sector by automating trading strategies, optimizing portfolio management and executing on-chain decisions with minimal human input.

These intelligent agents analyze vast datasets, identify market trends and execute trades in real time, significantly enhancing efficiency and reducing risks in the volatile crypto market. Their role extends beyond trading, influencing DeFi protocols, NFT markets and blockchain governance.

Bybit is at the forefront of this AI-driven transformation, launching the 

 to spotlight high-potential AI projects. This event provides a launchpad for groundbreaking AI applications, connecting innovators with a global crypto audience.

What Is the Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle?

Bybit is launching a unique AI trading event designed to highlight the most promising AI-driven crypto projects.

AI is revolutionizing crypto markets, with automated trading bots now executing over 60% of all crypto transactions. The integration of AI and blockchain is unlocking new trading strategies, DeFi innovations and web3 applications, making the AI sector one of the most promising in crypto.

Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle bridges AI and blockchain, providing a global stage for emerging projects to gain exposure to a global audience. Participants play an active role in shaping the future of AI in crypto while earning rewards.

How to Participate in the AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle

Campaign Period: Feb 28, 2025, 10AM UTC – Mar 27, 2025, 10AM UTC

Bybit users can support AI projects and earn rewards by participating in this AI-powered trading competition. Here's a step-by-step guide to joining:

Projects earn voting points from the following ways:

By actively trading and voting, participants not only have a chance to earn from the $1 million prize pool, but will also play a crucial role in shaping the future of AI in the crypto industry.

Bybit's AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle offers an exciting $1 million prize pool, with multiple ways for participants to win rewards.

The breakdown of how votes are allocated for Bybit Spot is as follows:

The breakdown of how votes are allocated for Bybit Web3 is as follows:

The maximum number of daily votes that a user can receive is 100,400 (50,200 for Bybit Spot and Web3 respectively).

By trading, voting and engaging in the competition, participants not only support innovative AI projects but also receive a chance to maximize their earnings in this high-stakes trading battle.

Bybit's AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle offers a distinctive platform that connects cryptocurrency traders with AI innovators. Participants are invited to support leading AI projects, earn attractive rewards and contribute to shaping the future of AI within the crypto ecosystem. 

 and be part of the AI-driven revolution on Bybit!

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How to Participate in Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle

Bybit Learn

Crypto Insights

Learn more about Bitcoin halving and how it impacts the crypto industry with insights from our guest author, Will Canny.

Bitcoin's status as the "gold" of cryptocurrencies has gradually solidified. One mechanism that ensures Bitcoin's scarcity and value is the Bitcoin halving, which occurs approximately every four years. At first glance, Bitcoin halving might seem to have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin. However, the reality is not entirely so. Bitcoin halving is a double-edged sword for people with different backgrounds. This article introduces what Bitcoin halving is, while also addressing the most pressing concerns of crypto investors today.

. Its underlying code dictates that only 21 million Bitcoins will ever exist. This limited supply ensures Bitcoin's economic scarcity, supporting its value system.

, with the existing 21 million bitcoins expected to be mined by 2140. In other words, the last new Bitcoin is expected to be produced by 2140, with all remaining bitcoins to be mined before this time. Currently, miners have excavated nearly 90% of the total Bitcoin supply, mining an average of about 900 bitcoins daily.

To maintain the issuance rate and increase scarcity, the number of Bitcoins issued in each block is periodically reduced. This process of reducing Bitcoin issuance is known as Bitcoin halving.

After a predetermined block height (used to denote the number of a specific block), the number of bitcoins issued in each block is reduced to half of the previous amount. A new halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, or about every four years.

The most recent halving (in 2020) reduced the number of bitcoins issued per block from 12.5 to 6.25. This means miners receive a reward of 6.25 bitcoins per block mined, instead of the previous reward of 12.5.

 has significant implications in terms of economics and sustainability.

In terms of economics, halving creates scarcity for Bitcoin, making it more valuable as "the rarer, the dearer." With fluctuating demand, Bitcoin halving reduces the speed of Bitcoin supply. Over the years, demand for Bitcoin has continuously grown while the supply rate has consistently declined.

In summary, this mechanism solidifies Bitcoin's status as a store of value. The reduction in supply speed, combined with growing demand, ensures that Bitcoin's value increases over time. Given market sentiment and the desire for scarce goods, the impact of halving on Bitcoin's value goes beyond supply-and-demand economics.

It’s currently estimated that around 4 million bitcoins have been permanently lost, due to forgotten wallet information, lost hard drives or the deaths of their owners. Most of these bitcoins are irretrievable. Considering the rate at which bitcoins are permanently lost, Bitcoin is a 

 currency, and halving further increases this scarcity.

From a sustainability perspective, Bitcoin mining incentivizes miners to validate blocks and protect the Bitcoin network. Miners ensure the blockchain is safe from malicious attacks. As long as Bitcoin issuance continues, miners will be attracted to participate, thereby securing the Bitcoin blockchain.

Halving maintains supply and sustains mining. Halving, by creating scarcity, drives up value and slows down the rate of Bitcoin issuance, attracting more miners to protect the blockchain for longer periods.

The above chart shows the changes in tokenomics and miner rewards caused by Bitcoin halving. With each halving, block rewards continue to decrease as the supply gradually slows.

It’s estimated that the next Bitcoin halving will occur on May 4, 2024, at block height 840,000. After that time, the current Bitcoin block reward of 6.25 will be reduced to 3.125.

The previous Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020, at block height 630,000, after which time the Bitcoin block reward was reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 Bitcoins.

The Bitcoin halving algorithm was confirmed and developed in the currency’s original version Bitcoin’s white paper explains why the issuance of Bitcoin continually decreases, as well as the timetable for halving events.

Four years after the creation of Bitcoin's "genesis block," and after more than 10 million bitcoins had been mined (with 210,000 blocks), the first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, reducing the mining reward from 50 bitcoins per block to 25.

Following is a table of Bitcoin halving dates:

Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Bitcoin’s Price

To different people, halving has its pros and cons, thus acting as a double-edged sword.

For investors, halving means that the frequency of new Bitcoin production decreases, and miners are less inclined to sell their bitcoins. Historical data shows that this anticipated scarcity positively affects investor psychology. Investors expect the value of Bitcoin to rise, potentially leading to more buying activity.

Past halving events have produced positive effects, though the impact of halving on Bitcoin's price can vary with market conditions.

Before the 2020 halving, due to investor behavior and subsequent speculation, the price of Bitcoin rose by about 40%. After the halving, the value of Bitcoin tripled from its previous historic high, reaching a new peak of $67,000.

For miners, halving ultimately means a reduction in rewards. Establishing and maintaining a Bitcoin mining facility is an expensive endeavor, and miners expect block rewards to at least cover these expenses.

How Reduced Rewards Affect Miners’ Expenses

When rewards are halved, miners' income is reduced by half. Considering the current value and the cost of operating a Bitcoin mining farm, many miners might shut down their mining if the calculated mining revenue cannot sustain their setups.

As miners cease activities, the mining hash rate (which refers to the total computational power used to mine and process transactions on a 

 blockchain like Bitcoin) is expected to decrease, which in turn could slow down the Bitcoin network and lead to longer transaction times. If the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, and miners deem it profitable to operate, the hash rate may return to its previous level.

According to a research report published by JPMorgan in mid July, since the next halving event is expected to arrive in the second quarter of 2024, Bitcoin’s hash rate continues to hit all-time highs, escalating competition among miners.

The article’s team, led by analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, wrote, "Although Bitcoin halving is considered to have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin, as historically production cost has acted as a floor, it poses a challenge for Bitcoin miners."

Financial Market Predictions for the Next Bitcoin Halving

JPMorgan noted in its report that the next Bitcoin halving event is a stress test for miners, because miners' income will decrease as the cost of producing Bitcoin increases. The article states that miners with lower electricity costs will have an easier time surviving, while miners with higher electricity costs may find themselves in a difficult situation after the halving.

It’s estimated that a $0.01 change in electricity cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) could lead to a $4,300 hike in the cost of producing Bitcoin, effectively increasing the production cost to $8,600 and thus leaving high-cost miners more vulnerable.

The report also points out that a sharp increase in hash rate means intensified competition among Bitcoin miners, with more mining equipment being deployed.

However, the report adds that, after the halving event, "for the hash rate to continue rising at the same rate, the price of Bitcoin needs to continue to rise above its production cost, or transaction fees need to increase significantly to offset the reduction in issuance rewards, which is unlikely."

Overall, the market remains optimistic about the large Bitcoin mining market. According to a research report by Bernstein, publicly listed Bitcoin (BTC) mining stocks in the United States, which suffered heavy losses in the 2022 cryptocurrency turmoil, have more than doubled this year.

This recovery is mainly being driven by two factors. First, improved market sentiment led to a strong rise in Bitcoin prices, due to investing institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity filing for 

 (ETFs). Secondly, some Bitcoin miners are leveraging opportunities in the high-performance computing and AI fields as a "revenue diversification strategy."

The report cited above further states: "This is a unique survival battle, where only top miners with low costs and conservative debt conditions can survive when Bitcoin prices exceed production costs, consolidate capacity and market share, and achieve extraordinary profits." It states that miners with high debt and weaker positions cannot survive, and may "go bankrupt during the cryptocurrency winter," citing the recent bankruptcy case of Core Scientific (CORZQ).

Currently, the first round of consolidation has been completed, and surviving miners are now increasing capacity to prepare for the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

What Happens When All Bitcoins Are Mined?

You may wonder how miners on the Bitcoin network will be compensated for protecting Bitcoin’s blockchain after its supply is completely mined by 2140. 

When all bitcoins have been mined, miners' incentives will be maintained through Bitcoin blockchain transaction fees paid by users. This shift means that instead of earning new bitcoins as a reward for mining, miners will rely on transaction fees as their main source of income.

This transition is anticipated to ensure the continued operation and security of the Bitcoin network. Even after the last Bitcoin is mined, the network will require miners to process transactions and secure the blockchain. The expectation is that transaction fees will become sufficiently rewarding to incentivize miners to maintain their operations.

This model suggests a future where the Bitcoin network continues to function and remain secure, despite the lack of new bitcoins to be mined. This dynamic aligns with Bitcoin's design as a deflationary currency, one whose total supply is capped at the 21 million limit.

The evolution of the Bitcoin network to rely entirely on transaction fees is a critical aspect of its economic model. It ensures that as Bitcoin becomes more scarce and potentially more valuable, the network can sustain itself without the need for new bitcoins to enter circulation.

The reliance on transaction fees also means that the dynamics of the Bitcoin network could change. If transaction fees become the primary incentive for miners, there may be implications for transaction costs and network congestion. However, developments such as the 

 and other scaling solutions are aimed at addressing these potential issues, ensuring that Bitcoin can continue to serve as a viable digital currency and 

In summary, the completion of Bitcoin mining won’t spell the end of the Bitcoin network. Instead, it will mark a transition to a new phase of operation, whereby transaction fees play a central role in ensuring the network's security and functionality. This transition is an integral part of Bitcoin's design, reflecting its sustainable and forward-thinking approach to digital currency.

Understanding Bitcoin Halving: Its Reasons, Schedule and Impact on the Crypto Industry

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