Feb 24, 2025: Our weekly Institutional Insights explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

 explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

Weekly Highlight — Mixed Economic Data Leads to Risk-Off Strategies

For the past two months, the strong U.S. economy has given investors confidence to invest in markets, even amidst looming tariffs and a stricter Federal Reserve Board. However, recent data indicates that this support may be weakening.

Last Friday, several reports on consumer sentiment, housing and services contributed to the S&P 500's largest loss of the year as it fell 1.7%, wiping out its weekly gains. In contrast, bonds experienced a rally, driving the yield on 10-year Treasuries down to 4.43%. The VIX {

the Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) Volatility Index

, known as the "fear gauge"] spiked, but remained below 20, signaling increased market anxiety.

Previously, optimism among investors was fueled by speculation regarding U.S. president Trump’s policies promoting disinflationary growth. However, mixed economic signals are now causing concern, particularly a report showing a decline in consumer sentiment alongside rising long-term inflation expectations — the largest drop since 1995. Additionally, existing U.S. home sales fell for the first time since September 2024, further complicating the outlook.

While January's job growth appeared solid, with 143,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate stable, institutional investors began the year with a pro-risk stance, optimistic about the U.S. economy’s trajectory. Yet, the recent volatility in economic data has prompted a reevaluation of strategies.

Weekly Crypto Highlight — SEC May Drop Lawsuit Against Coinbase

Coinbase announced that the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has agreed to drop its lawsuit accusing Coinbase of operating an illegal exchange, pending Commissioners’ approval. Following this news, Coinbase shares initially surged in premarket trading, but fell by 4% to $246.30 as of midday in New York. Bitcoin also declined by about 1%, trading at around $97,000.

This decision signals a shift from the aggressive regulatory stance of former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who faced criticism from the crypto industry for enforcing regulations through lawsuits. Last week, the SEC likewise requested a pause on a similar case against Binance, highlighting ongoing developments regarding a regulatory framework for digital assets.

The SEC's complaint will be unfairly dismissed, meaning it cannot be refiled. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that this dismissal will entail no fines or changes in the company’s operations.

Coinbase has actively engaged in Washington, D.C., donating millions to support pro-crypto candidates and recently adding Chris LaCivita, a former Trump campaign manager, to its advisory council. Armstrong has also communicated with Trump directly.

The SEC initially sued Coinbase in June 2023 amidst a broader crackdown on the digital asset industry following the 

. Gensler had claimed that many tokens fell under SEC jurisdiction. 

The dismissal alleviates a significant burden on Coinbase, allowing it to list more tokens and refocus on product development, rather than legal defenses. This outcome removes a key litigation risk, enhancing Coinbase's capacity to innovate. The company recently reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, and now aims to collaborate with Congress and regulators in order to establish clearer rules for the crypto landscape.

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Weekly Institutional Insights: Mixed Economic Data Rattles Market; SEC May Dismiss Lawsuit

As of mid-February 2025, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing movements driven by economic pressures and regulatory movements. 

As of mid-February 2025, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing movements driven by economic pressures and regulatory movements. Recent inflation data has rattled financial markets, leading to a sharp reassessment of expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has caused Bitcoin to dip below $94.2K before rebounding to approximately $98.1K. This fluctuation illustrates how macroeconomic factors are increasingly influencing digital assets, mirroring trends seen since early 2022 when the Fed began raising interest rates.

Santiment data reveals that discussions around the terms “CPI” and “inflation” surged to 1.75% of all crypto conversations, the highest level since 2022. This heightened sensitivity indicates that when markets are stagnant or declining, economic news is met with increased concern and fear, often leading to sell-offs. Despite the increased uncertainty, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, staying above the $98K mark. Nevertheless, continued inflation could lead to further volatility in risk assets such equities and crypto.

The LIBRA scandal has further complicated the crypto landscape. Argentine President Javier Milei's endorsement of the cryptocurrency led to a dramatic rise — and an even more significant fall in value, as it plummeted by 80% within days. Allegations of fraud surrounding Milei have intensified scrutiny of speculative assets, particularly meme coins, leading to a crisis of confidence among investors.

The fallout from this scandal reflects a broader trend of growing impatience with high-risk assets. Retail sentiment has turned bearish, as evidenced by increased mentions of selling across social media platforms. This shift highlights the need for thorough research before investing in speculative projects. The LIBRA incident serves as a stark reminder of the risks associated with relying solely on endorsements for investment decisions, prompting many traders to seek more stable and established cryptocurrencies.

Emerging Opportunities and Investor Behavior

Litecoin is gaining traction, driven by the possibility of a spot ETF approval that could pave the way for broader access to altcoins, further maturing the crypto market. As discussions around the term “Litecoin ETF” spike, market analysts are optimistic about the likelihood of approval, which could enhance investor interest in Litecoin and similar assets.

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Bybit x Santiment: LIBRA Scandal Gives Rise to Meme Coin Crisis; Litecoin ETF Anticipations Build Up

KAITO is the core currency of Kaito AI’s InfoFi ecosystem, enabling transactions, governance, staking, and community engagement.

The S&P 500 fell 0.43% amid Walmart’s weak outlook, with investors eyeing PMI and home sales data next. Gold rose 0.23% to $2,939 on safe-haven demand but retreated from a $2,954 high. Traders await S&P Global Flash PMIs. Coindesk Indices, an index measuring broader cryptocurrency market performance was up by 0.02%, with Bitcoin and Ether rising by 2.46% and 0.69%, respectively in the past 24 hours. Trade these markets and more with up to 500x leverage on Bybit MT5 using this 

Today’s top performer is BERA, which surged nearly 15.8% after The Graph integrated Berachain Mainnet on day one, enabling seamless onchain data access.

Berachain (BERA), founded in 2021, is a Layer 1 blockchain with Proof-of-Liquidity consensus, ensuring security and liquidity while maintaining full Ethereum compatibility. The Graph has 

 support for the newly launched Berachain mainnet from day one. Developers can now query Berachain data using Subgraph Studio, making it easier to organize and access onchain data. This integration enables the creation of fast and efficient frontends for Berachain-powered dapps.

Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data of 

 is the core currency of Kaito AI’s InfoFi ecosystem, enabling transactions, governance, staking, and community engagement. The total supply is allocated as follows: 56.67% to community and ecosystem initiatives (including ecosystem growth, creator incentives, and liquidity rewards), 25% to core contributors, 10% to the foundation, and 8.3% to early backers. Distribution is merit-based, using AI-driven assessments of engagement, governance participation, and long-term alignment with Kaito’s vision. Staking provides rewards and voting rights, ensuring active participation. A claim process for KAITO will be announced soon.

Yesterday, BTC Spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $252.8M, including $33.5M from GBTC and $219.3M from non-GBTC funds.

. With $43 million in funding, this presents a valuable opportunity. To maximize your points, complete the "Generate at least one transaction on Sahara Testnet" task by sending a small amount of SAHARA via Metamask. This earns 20 points, a significant amount compared to other tasks. Ensure you take full advantage of this opportunity.

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KAITO Powers the InfoFi Ecosystem with Governance Staking and Community Rewards

Kaito is an AI-powered information indexer specifically designed to deliver actionable insights for cryptocurrency traders and investors. Find out more now!

Within a year of its launch, Kaito has already established itself as a key player in the web3 industry. Its innovative approach combines artificial intelligence with publicly available crypto conversation data, creating a tool that can present an up-to-date picture of the events affecting the cryptocurrency space at any given time.

 is an AI-powered search engine specifically designed for the cryptocurrency space. It’s a premium service with a monthly subscription of $1,099. The platform indexes thousands of 

 sources that aren’t accessible through traditional search engines, and gathers data from Twitter, Discord, governance forums, research papers, news articles, podcasts and even conference transcripts. 

Kaito uses advanced AI algorithms and natural language processing to better understand context and gauge sentiment about topics. Its use of AI and an internal algorithm allows Kaito to filter out the noise, presenting a more accurate picture of community sentiment. 

. Before moving to web3, Hu worked in the traditional finance space for over eight years, including the management of a $500 million equities portfolio at Citadel. His aim with Kaito is to democratize web3 information by giving users access to tools and insights they need to navigate this ever-changing industry. 

Kaito has quickly attracted significant investment from major 

 in the industry. The project has already raised $10.8 million across two funding rounds.

The seed round in August 2023 was led by Dragonfly Capital, with participation from Sequoia Capital China, Jane Street and others, as Kaito secured $5.3 million. This was followed by a Series A round in June 2023, led by Superscrypt and Spartan, raising an additional $5.5 million with a valuation of $87.5 million. Other notable investors include Mirana Ventures, Folius Ventures and Alpha Lab Capital. 

Kaito offers a range of features designed to provide users with comprehensive and actionable insights. They include the following:

: Kaito’s platform uses a custom-built large language model (LLM) in combination with real-time data gathered from various sources to provide users with actionable insights on developments in the web3 space. 

:As a web3-native company, Kaito can analyze and understand the nuances of 

 and concepts. This gives it an edge when compared to Web 2.0 search engines that struggle to understand this space. 

: Kaito tracks market sentiment at various levels, including general market sentiment, sector-specific sentiment and sentiment toward specific tokens and projects, providing investors and traders with an important metric in assessing a project’s value.

Kaito uses a custom LLM to enhance its data processing capabilities. The platform aggregates data continuously from various sources, including social media, forums and news websites. This data is then processed using Kaito’s natural language processing capability to identify relevant information, extract key insights and analyze market sentiment. 

In addition, its platform uses a reputation system to give weightage to different posts based on the reputation of each poster. It also employs sophisticated algorithms to filter out spam and bots that often try to shape public opinion on social media platforms, especially on X. 

In December 2024, Kaito AI introduced two new elements to its ecosystem: 

 collection. Yaps is a scoring system that measures user contribution and engagement within the web3 community. Users earn 

 by creating valuable content, engaging with others in the crypto space and participating in discussions on 

. Kaito uses four main attributes in allotting these points:

The system also automatically filters out spam posts, making sure only real posters and useful posts can earn Yap points. While Kaito hasn’t officially confirmed a token airdrop associated with Yaps, the program allows participants to accumulate points that might play a role in future rewards, or initiatives within the Kaito AI ecosystem.

Participation in the Yaps program is completely free. Users just need to log in with their Crypto Twitter accounts and Kaito will start tracking their Yaps scores automatically. 

Genesis NFTis a limited-edition collection of 1,500 

 launched by Kaito AI. Priced at 0.1 ETH each, these NFTs have been minted in three phases:

As of Dec 26, 2024, NFTs in the collection are tradable on OpenSea, with a floor price of approximately 3.69 ETH. 

Kaito is a new and innovative service in the web3 space. Its use of AI to cut through the noise and fragmentation presents a great opportunity for the entire ecosystem. Kaito’s 

 suggests that it’s likely to roll out new features and/or services in the future. While the high subscription fee may be an obstacle for large-scale adoption, Kaito is still likely to become an important tool in the hands of institutions and 

 Perpetual Contract with up to 75x leverage now!

Intermediate

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Kaito: AI-Powered Web3 Information Platform

Bybit Learn

Crypto

Prediction markets are decentralized platforms for betting on future events with blockchain-powered transparency, accessibility, and secure payouts.

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As their name implies, crypto prediction markets allow you to make money by betting on future outcomes of various crypto events. In general, prediction markets are divided into two types: sports and non-sports (crypto falls into the category of non-sports-related prediction markets).

Unlike traditional prediction markets, crypto prediction markets leverage 

, so they’re decentralized, globally accessible and highly transparent, especially in terms of price discovery. While traditional prediction markets carry most of the volume in this niche, there’s a growing demand for crypto prediction markets as crypto’s market cap continues to grow rapidly.

Let's dig deeper into crypto prediction markets and learn how you can capitalize on them to make extra money.

Prediction markets are platforms that allow you to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. They’re fueled by the probability of an event occurring. When a bet favors the participant, they’re rewarded for their correct prediction.

Prediction markets offer an exciting interplay of finance, human psychology and the theory of probability that can lead to lucrative gains.

These markets can be centralized or decentralized. The centralized ones (e.g., Betfair and PredictIt) are operated by a single entity, so you’re required to trust them with the payouts and fairness of the outcome. Their decentralized counterparts — crypto prediction markets — are powered by blockchain technology, which eliminates third parties, thereby ensuring transparency and fairness.

The key features of prediction markets are price probability, aggregated wisdom and incentives that are given to participants as motivation for placing bets on outcomes of events. Some of the events supported by prediction markets include outcomes in sports (game winners), politics (election results), finance (stock prices) and weather (temperatures).

Centralized vs. Decentralized Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are broadly divided into centralized or decentralized markets, each with unique benefits and challenges. The centralized types are governed by a single company that manages various aspects of the prediction process. However, decentralized prediction markets rely on 

The key advantages of centralized markets are ease of use, better liquidity and quick dispute resolution. However, these centralized platforms also face challenges, such as government censorship, intermediary fees that eat into the payouts and the possibility of a single point of failure — especially in the event of a hack or technical outage.

On the other hand, decentralized prediction markets, such as Augur and Polymarket, have certain distinct benefits, such as censorship resistance, immutability, global access and lack of intermediaries. However, they also face challenges in the form of regulatory compliance, complexity of use and illiquidity due to low participation.

Crypto prediction markets are decentralized platforms for the forecasting of outcomes. They enable their participants to use cryptocurrencies in order to bet on the outcomes of future events. These markets are similar to 

 markets, in which investors bet on the prices of assets based on the outcome of future events.

Central to crypto prediction markets is the use of blockchain technology, which ensures transparency, fairness and security. As such, they have three key components:

Crypto prediction markets employ a systematic interplay of market creation, trading, resolution and payouts. They’re banking on market sentiment to fuel the probability of an event taking place, which may favor or discredit the bet placed by a participant.

The first step in this process is creating a prediction market based on various parameters, which may include event description, possible outcomes (e.g., yes/no), expiration date and resolution source. Any user can create a prediction market based on a given event.

Once the market has been created, trading begins. Participants can buy and sell tokens representing the likelihood of an event occurring. For example, a token may initially trade at $0.50 for “Yes,” representing a 50% chance of the event occurring. If more people buy “Yes,” the token’s price can rise to $0.70, in this case representing a 70% probability that the event will take place.

After the trading is done, market resolution occurs based on the outcome. At this point, oracles issue the result on the blockchain. Smart contracts proceed to issue payouts based on the winning outcome. The tokens with the winning outcome can be redeemed for full value, while those that lost the prediction become worthless.

Crypto prediction markets are governed by different market mechanisms that dictate their payout structures. Two commonly used prediction market mechanisms in the crypto space are the fixed payout and the pari-mutuel payout.

The fixed payout mechanism ensures a predefined payout for the winning outcome. Participants trade outcome tokens, and the market price reflects the probability of the event as estimated by traders. Traders buy or sell tokens that represent specific outcomes (e.g., "Yes" or "No").

Each token is priced between 0 and 1 (or $0 and $1), where the price reflects the perceived probability of the outcome. For example, if "Yes" tokens trade at $0.70, the market implies a 70% chance of that outcome.

At the event's conclusion, tokens for the correct outcome are redeemed for a fixed amount (e.g., $1 per token), while tokens for the incorrect outcome become worthless.

The advantage of this mechanism is that the payment structure is simple and predictable. Another benefit is that there's continual price discovery, since prices adjust dynamically to reflect market sentiment.

However, the fixed payout mechanism requires high liquidity to reflect the accuracy of probabilities. It also relies heavily upon oracles, which necessitates a high level of trust and accuracy in order to resolve the outcomes.

In a pari-mutuel structure, payouts are determined by pooling all bets and redistributing the total amount to winners after the event. All bets for each possible outcome are pooled together.

After the event, the total pool (minus fees) is divided among those who predicted the correct outcome. Individual payouts are proportional to the amount wagered by each winner, as well as the pool size.

Some key advantages of this payout model are its dynamic payouts, efficient pricing and fair distribution of payouts. However, this structure isn’t beginner-friendly, due to its complexity and non-intuitive manner. Also, unlike the fixed payout, where rewards are predefined, the exact payout rewards are uncertain until after the event.

That said, the fixed payout mechanism is ideal for those looking for a simple and predictable way to enter prediction markets, while the pari-mutuel payout favors more advanced users, who appreciate dynamic odds and collective market intelligence.

The crypto space has seen an influx of crypto prediction markets as more people continue to venture into this niche. Some of the notable crypto prediction platforms are as follows.

Considered one of the largest prediction markets, 

 provides a user-friendly and robust environment for participants to bet on real-world events using 

. The platform offers a wide range of markets, including crypto, sports, politics, pop culture, business and Elon Musk's tweets. The platform is powered bythe 

 network, which ensures secure, fast and low-cost betting transactions. It also has an active community of users, thereby ensuring high liquidity on the platform. Its user interface is beginner-friendly and simple to use.

, Augur is one of the earliest decentralized crypto prediction markets in the space. Developed in 2014 by Forecast Foundation, and co-founded by Jack Peterson, Joey Krug and Jeremy Gardener, Augur has remained a top platform for wagering crypto-powered bets.

The native token for the Augur platform is REP, an 

 token used to power the platform’s betting ecosystem via staking it to participate in the platform's reporting process. Meanwhile, ETH or 

 prediction market designed to open the niche to everyone. It runs on three Ethereum-compatible blockchains: Polygon, 

. The quality of its markets is maintained by its native POLK token holders.

-based prediction market that offers its users a wide range of events to bet on. Since it's built on Solana, participants can enjoy secure, fast and low-cost transactions on a user-friendly platform. You need to connect a web3 wallet, such as 

, in order to use Hedgehog. It offers various types of prediction markets, such as, pooled markets, the Classic “Yes” or No” and parlays (in which you use parlay cards).

 (DEX) that launched BET (Bullish on Everything) crypto prediction markets in August 2024, ahead of the U.S. political elections in November 2024. The platform claims to be highly capital-efficient and is built on Solana. Its growing number of categories span crypto, culture and sports such as Formula 1

Since BET is built on top of the Drift protocol, market participants can also benefit from yield-generating activities as they place their bets. You can create “structured bets” on the platform by hedging against popular cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.

To incentivize participation, BET has introduced a rewards system called FUEL. During promotional periods, users earn FUEL tokens for each trade, which can later be redeemed for prizes within the Drift and Solana ecosystems.

You can utilize over 30 cryptocurrencies supported by the platform, including USDC and SOL.

Crypto prediction markets represent a fascinating evolution in the way we gather, interpret and act on collective knowledge. By leveraging blockchain technology, these platforms offer unparalleled transparency, decentralization and accessibility, empowering users worldwide to forecast outcomes in a trustless environment. With mechanisms like fixed payout and pari-mutuel payout, participants can choose structures that align with their preferences, balancing predictability and market efficiency.

The rise of platforms like Augur, Polymarket and Drift BET highlights the diverse approaches within this space, catering to a wide range of users, from casual bettors to sophisticated traders. Innovations such as low-cost transactions, multi-token support and integrated yield generation further enhance the appeal of these markets, making them more inclusive and dynamic.

However, challenges remain, including regulatory scrutiny, user adoption and ensuring fair market mechanics. As the sector matures, collaboration between platforms, regulators and communities will be critical to its long-term success.

 and prediction markets are highly speculative in nature, it’s imperative to be aware of the associated risks and conduct proper research before participating in these markets.

What Are Prediction Markets in Crypto?

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards