(9 Jan 2026) US jobs report: Here's how Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks and FX may react

Major assets, both tradfi and cryptos, are little changed ahead of today's pivotal US jobs data release.

The December US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report is due at 1:30 PM UTC today (Friday, Jan 9)

Here's how markets are faring at the time of writing:

• Bitcoin found support around the $90,000 level and is now staying above that psychologically-important price level

• Bybit's SP500 and DJ30 are hovering around their respective all-time highs posted earlier this week on Jan 7th

• Even Gold and Silver are hovering around their respective all-time highs registered on Dec 29th.

Trade SP500, DJ30, Gold, Silver and more on Bybit MT5 - here.

Crypto sentiment remains nervous, with the "market sentiment" meter still reading "fear".

Furthermore, market expectations for Bitcoin volatility over the next 30 days are easing lower, erasing much of the surge since the 10/10 (October 10th, 2025) historic liquidation event.

As a reminder, the US jobs report is one of the most pivotal data releases out of the world's largest economy as it heavily influences Fed rate decisions.

Economists' forecasts for US NFP

Here's what experts predict for the incoming US jobs data for December 2025:

• Headline NFP figure (new jobs added to the US labour market): 70,000

If so, this would be more than the 64,000 new jobs added in November 2025.

• Unemployment rate: 4.5%

If so, this would be slightly lower than November's 4.6% jobless rate

Potential Near-Term Scenarios

• A US jobs market that's not deteriorating rapidly, or even better-than-expected may boost major assets like US stock indices (SP500, DJ30) etc.) to new record highs! Risk assets such as cryptos may also take delight in such a report.

• On the other hand, precious metals like Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) may notch new all-time highs if a much weaker-than-expected US jobs report which bolsters bets for Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Currently, markets predict a mere 14% chance of a Fed rate cut in January, with 23% odds for 3 rate cuts (75 basis points total) for all of 2026.

Market Predictions: How are major assets expected to react to the incoming NFP data?

These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the NFP release @ 1:30 PM GMT today (Fri, Jan 9)

• Bitcoin (BTC):  as much as 1.2% up / 2.2% down

• Ethereum (ETH): as much as 0.9% up / 3.3% down

• Ripple (XRP): as much as 2.2% up / 2.5% down

• Solana (SOL): as much as 2.3% up / 3.4% down

• Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 0.7% up / 1.2% down

• Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 1.2% up / 1.9% down

• Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 0.6% up / 1.4% down

• EURUSD+: as much as 0.4% up / 0.7% down

• GBPUSD+: as much as 0.3% up / 0.6% down

• USDJPY+: as much as 0.7% up / 0.7% down

• S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.6% up / 1.7% down

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 0.8% up / 1.9% down

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.6% up / 1.7% down

Watch markets react to the US jobs report LIVE with Bybit Learn's Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan.

Livestream begins at 1:00 PM GMT (30 minutes before NFP release)

But wait, there's more!

Later today (Friday, Jan 9) ...

The US Supreme Court is set to rule whether President Trump's tariffs are legal or not.

• If the Supreme Court rules that the US administration's tariffs are illegal, that may result in a knee-jerk spike up for risk assets (e.g. stocks, cryptos etc.)
• If the Supreme Court rules that the US administration's tariffs can stay in place, that may result in some downward pressure on risk assets.