US inflation report: Here's how Bitcoin, gold, stocks, FX may react

Even as markets keep a wary eye on major global developments at the onset of the week, the incoming US consumer price index (CPI) data is set to take centre stage today.

The December US inflation report is set to be released at 1:30PM UTC on Tuesday, Jan 13.

Here's what economists predict for the inflation report, as measured by the CPI:

• 2.7% rise year-on-year (Dec 2025 vs. Dec 2024) - if so, that would match November's 2.7% year-on-year rise

• 0.3% rise month-on-month (Dec 2025 vs. Nov 2025)

• 2.7% rise year-on-year for Core CPI (which excludes more volatile food and energy prices) - if so, that would slightly higher than November's 2.6% year-on-year rise

Potential market reactions

Higher-than-expected US inflation may deter the Fed from lowering US interest rates this year.

Such a narrative may pull:

• Gold further below its all-time high ($4630.23 posted yesterday - Monday, Jan 12)

• US stock indices such as the SP500, NAS100, and DJ30 moving lower

• G10 currency pairs (e.g. EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD etc.) lower as the US dollar strengthens at the thought of US interest rates staying unchanged for longer (rates not moving down as fast as expected).

NOTE: Markets currently predict practically zero chance of a Fed rate cut at the January FOMC meeting, but are still pricing in 2 more rate cuts by end-2025.

Lower-than-expected US inflation may allow the Fed to cut US interest rates over the course of 2026.

Such a narrative may push:

• Gold to a new all-time high!

• US stock indices such as the SP500, NAS100, and DJ30 moving higher (new record highs for S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices).

• G10 currency pairs (e.g. EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD etc.) higher on a weaker USD at the thought of US interest rates moving lower.

NOTE: A currency tends to weaken at the thought of its interest rates going down, and vice versa.

Market Predictions

These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the CPI release @ 1:30 PM GMT today (Tue, Jan 13):

• Bitcoin (BTC):  as much as 1.3% up / 1.8% down

• Ethereum (ETH): as much as 4.1% up / 3% down

• Ripple (XRP): as much as 2.7% up / 2.5% down

• Solana (SOL): as much as 4.2% up / 3% down

• S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 1.1% up / 1.5% down

• Dow Jones (DJ30): as much as 1% up / 1.4% down 

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1.3% up / 1.4% down

• Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 1.1% up / 0.3% down

• Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 1.6% up / 0.5% down

• Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 1% up / 0.8% down

• EURUSD+: as much as 0.7% up / 0.2% down

• GBPUSD+: as much as 0.45% up / 0.2% down

• USDJPY+: as much as 0.3% up / 0.65% down

Of note, USDJPY has just posted its highest levels since July 2024, now flirting with the 159.00 level.

This comes on the back of news that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is reportedly considering a snap election, perhaps by early February. 

This political uncertainty is driving the Japanese Yen's weakness.

WATCH LIVE: Join Bybit Learn's Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan, as he shares key insights on why the US CPI release can rock markets. We'll also show you how major assets react in real time.