Gold is projected to surpass $3,000 per ounce in 2025, driven by strong macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

At the heart of gold's potential surge is the current macroeconomic landscape that’s characterized by persistent inflation and anticipated monetary policy shifts. Inflation rates in the U.S. are expected to remain above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, creating an environment in which gold is expected to serve as a crucial hedge against currency devaluation. When inflation erodes purchasing power, investors often turn to gold to preserve their wealth.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve has signaled a shift toward monetary easing, with market expectations indicating potential interest rate cuts in the coming months. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it a more attractive investment as compared to interest-bearing assets, such as bonds and savings accounts. With real interest rates projected to remain low or even go negative, gold could experience renewed demand as a safe store of value.

Geopolitical tensions further bolster gold’s appeal. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the strained U.S.-China relationship and the Russia-Ukraine war, create an atmosphere of uncertainty that drives investors toward safe-haven assets. During times of geopolitical instability, gold has historically seen increased demand as investors seek to mitigate risks associated with market volatility.

As global tensions escalate, the demand for gold is likely to rise, reinforcing its status as a reliable hedge against financial instability. Investors tend to flock to gold during crises, viewing it as a secure asset that retains its intrinsic value, especially when other markets are under pressure.

Another significant factor contributing to the bullish outlook for gold is the unprecedented demand from central banks around the world. In 2024, central banks collectively purchased over 1,000 metric tons of gold, marking one of the highest levels of accumulation in recent history. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, particularly among countries like China and Russia that are actively reducing their reliance on U.S. dollar reserves as part of a broader de-dollarization strategy.

This central bank buying provides a strong structural support for gold prices, minimizing downside risks. As these institutions accumulate more gold, the resulting scarcity in the market could lead to higher prices. The growing demand from central banks underscores the renewed confidence in gold as a strategic reserve asset, especially amidst economic volatility and geopolitical tensions.

From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a robust uptrend, trading above key moving averages and nearing critical resistance levels. If gold successfully breaks through the psychological barrier of $3,000 per ounce, momentum could carry it toward higher price targets, potentially reaching $3,200 or even $3,500. 

, such as relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD), suggest that gold remains in a bullish phase, indicating further upside potential.

As gold approaches these key resistance points, technical traders will closely monitor its price movements. A successful breach of the $3,000 level could trigger momentum buying, propelling prices higher as investor confidence grows.

Finally, rising investor sentiment plays a crucial role in gold’s potential price surge. Increased inflows into gold-backed 

 (ETFs), in addition to speculative positioning in futures markets, reflect strong confidence among both retail and institutional investors. As ETF holdings rise, it signals renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven investment.

This optimism is bolstered by a general shift in market sentiment as investors are increasingly turning to gold amid concerns over economic stability and inflation. The combination of robust technical indicators, macroeconomic pressures and favorable investor sentiment positions gold favorably for a significant price increase in 2025.

In summary, gold is well-positioned to reach $3,000 per ounce in 2025, driven by a combination of persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank demand and positive technical indicators. As investors seek refuge in safe-haven assets, gold’s intrinsic value and historical performance during times of crisis will make it an attractive option for preserving wealth. The confluence of these factors suggests that gold's upward trajectory could continue, making 2025 a pivotal year for this precious metal.

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Bybit Commodity Insight Report: Why Gold Is Poised to Reach $3,000 in 2025

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, as well as futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Macro headwinds are impacting the crypto market, with a sell-off that began over the weekend deepening this week. BTC, ETH and most altcoins are declining alongside equities, gold and treasury yields, though derivatives markets are showing little bearish sentiment or increased volatility expectations. Among perpetuals, there are record consistent positive rates across most markets, indicating a reset in positioning. Meanwhile, ETH retains a volatility premium over BTC, but its term structure hasn’t inverted as sharply as in earlier sell-offs this month.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Funding Rates Largely Positive Amid Sell-Off

Despite risk-off sentiment across asset classes this weekend and early this past week, USDT-denominated perpetual contracts have shown their most consistently positive funding rates within the past month. While these rates haven't reached the bullish levels of early December 2024, most have returned to a neutral level of 0.01%, signaling a reset in positioning due to recent market movements.

Tuesday's intensified risk-off sell-off led to a significant spike in BTC put trade volume as traders hedged against further declines. Unlike ETH, which leans bullish on calls, BTC's open interest is balanced between upside and downside protection. The volatility term structure is flat again, typical during sharp market moves, but this reflects a decline in longer-dated options, rather than a rise in short-term expectations.

As the sell-off in risk-on assets deepened this past week, ETH outperformed BTC. ETH derivatives markets are showing stronger sentiment, with higher call trade volumes indicating greater demand for upside positioning as compared to puts. However, ETH's volatility term structure has inverted more sharply than BTC's, as seen in previous significant market moves since last November (2024), with front-end volatility levels 15 points above those of BTC options with a similar tenor.

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Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Feb 26, 2025): Reset in Sentiment Brewing as Fund Rates Turn Positive

Explore four essential tips to help you accumulate more points, optimize your strategy and claim the best rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge.

With the rise of gamified crypto events, EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge stands out as one of the most exciting opportunities for users to earn rewards while engaging with both Bybit and Mantle Network. This limited-time event offers participants a shot at a 1,000,000 MNT prize pool when they complete on-chain and trading-related tasks. 

To help you maximize your rewards and ensure you get the most out of this event, in this guide we’ll break down four essential tips to help you accumulate more points, optimize your strategy and claim the best rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge.

EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is a limited-time campaign that rewards participants with a share of a 1,000,000 MNT prize pool when they complete both Bybit and on-chain tasks. Players earn "wishes" that can be used to enter Lucky Draws or climb the leaderboard for greater rewards.

This campaign, hosted by Bybit in collaboration with Mantle, blends gamification with 

 engagement, offering users multiple ways to win. Participants can choose to rely on chance via the Lucky Draw or strategically allocate their wishes to compete on the leaderboard. The event runs from Mar 6, 2025 to Mar 27, 2025, making it a limited-time opportunity to accumulate rewards while exploring the Mantle ecosystem.

4 Tips to Maximize Your Wishes and Rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge

To make the most out of EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge, you need to strategize your wish allocation, complete as many tasks as possible and take advantage of all available earning mechanisms. Here are four essential tips to maximize your rewards:

One of the best ways to earn high-value rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is by competing on the leaderboard. There are a total of five rounds, and the rewards are higher with each passing round. 

The more wishes you allocate toward leaderboard rankings, the higher your position and the larger your rewards. However, since the leaderboard is dynamic, your rank can change based on the activity of other participants.

Since leaderboard positions fluctuate, it’s recommended that you monitor your ranking regularly and adjust your strategy accordingly. Players who accumulate the most wishes by the end of each leaderboard round will receive the greatest rewards.

 that each round’s rewards and wishes are calculated independently, and any wishes spent in a round won’t carry over to the next round.

If you prefer an element of surprise, the Lucky Draw is your best bet. By spending wishes on Lucky Draw attempts, you earn the chance to win instant prizes. The Lucky Draw operates on a first-come, first-served basis, so the earlier you participate, the better your chances of securing top-tier rewards.

Since rewards are limited, it's advisable to use your wishes early before the top prizes run out.

An easy way to earn free points in this campaign is by holding Mantle (MNT) and/or Mantle Restaked ETH (cmETH) in your Bybit account. By simply keeping these assets in your wallet, you’ll receive additional wishes, increasing your chances of winning more rewards.

This passive method of earning wishes ensures that you accumulate extra points without actively completing tasks, making it one of the simplest ways to boost your rewards.

Another hidden gem for doubling your rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is through Layer 3. Participants who complete specific Layer 3 quests will receive extra bonuses, including double rewards on certain tasks.

By leveraging Layer 3 bonuses, you can significantly boost your total wish count, increasing your chances of securing leaderboard positions or hitting big wins in the Lucky Draw.

If you’re looking for a fun and rewarding way to engage with the Mantle ecosystem, EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is definitely an event worth joining. With 1,000,000 MNT up for grabs, both casual users and seasoned traders can benefit from this campaign.

The event's dual-reward system allows participants to tailor their strategy based on their preferences. Whether you enjoy the thrill of luck-based rewards or prefer the competitive edge of leaderboard climbing, this campaign offers something for everyone.

Additionally, holding MNT and cmETH provides passive earnings, while Layer 3 integration presents an opportunity for double rewards — making the experience even more lucrative for active participants.

EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is a limited-time, gamified rewards campaign that blends trading, staking and on-chain interactions. By completing tasks, holding Mantle assets and strategically using your wishes, you can maximize your rewards and secure your share of the 1,000,000 MNT prize pool.

This event runs from Mar 6, 2025 to 27, 2025, so now is the best time to get started. Are you ready to explore the Mantle ecosystem and claim your rewards? Join EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge today!

Beginner

how to participate in ecogalaxy mantle surge

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Join Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle, vote for top AI projects and compete for a share of a $1M prize pool. Earn rewards while shaping the future of AI in crypto.

The Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle is an exciting and innovative trading and voting event that aims to identify and support high-potential AI projects within the cryptocurrency space.

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to revolutionize blockchain technology, this competition offers users a unique opportunity to engage with emerging AI-driven crypto projects while earning substantial rewards of up to $1 million.

 (AI) and cryptocurrency is reshaping blockchain and 

 — autonomous programs powered by machine learning — are revolutionizing the sector by automating trading strategies, optimizing portfolio management and executing on-chain decisions with minimal human input.

These intelligent agents analyze vast datasets, identify market trends and execute trades in real time, significantly enhancing efficiency and reducing risks in the volatile crypto market. Their role extends beyond trading, influencing DeFi protocols, NFT markets and blockchain governance.

Bybit is at the forefront of this AI-driven transformation, launching the 

 to spotlight high-potential AI projects. This event provides a launchpad for groundbreaking AI applications, connecting innovators with a global crypto audience.

What Is the Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle?

Bybit is launching a unique AI trading event designed to highlight the most promising AI-driven crypto projects.

AI is revolutionizing crypto markets, with automated trading bots now executing over 60% of all crypto transactions. The integration of AI and blockchain is unlocking new trading strategies, DeFi innovations and web3 applications, making the AI sector one of the most promising in crypto.

Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle bridges AI and blockchain, providing a global stage for emerging projects to gain exposure to a global audience. Participants play an active role in shaping the future of AI in crypto while earning rewards.

How to Participate in the AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle

Campaign Period: Feb 28, 2025, 10AM UTC – Mar 27, 2025, 10AM UTC

Bybit users can support AI projects and earn rewards by participating in this AI-powered trading competition. Here's a step-by-step guide to joining:

Projects earn voting points from the following ways:

By actively trading and voting, participants not only have a chance to earn from the $1 million prize pool, but will also play a crucial role in shaping the future of AI in the crypto industry.

Bybit's AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle offers an exciting $1 million prize pool, with multiple ways for participants to win rewards.

*Note that to win the prizes, there is a minimum number of voting points required. For example, to win the largest prize of $50,000, 600,000 voting points are required. Refer to the event page for more details. 

The breakdown of how votes are allocated for Bybit Spot is as follows:

The breakdown of how votes are allocated for Bybit Web3 is as follows:

The maximum number of daily votes that a user can receive is 100,400 (50,200 for Bybit Spot and Web3 respectively).

By trading, voting and engaging in the competition, participants not only support innovative AI projects but also receive a chance to maximize their earnings in this high-stakes trading battle.

Bybit's AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle offers a distinctive platform that connects cryptocurrency traders with AI innovators. Participants are invited to support leading AI projects, earn attractive rewards and contribute to shaping the future of AI within the crypto ecosystem. 

 and be part of the AI-driven revolution on Bybit!

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How to Participate in Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle

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Trading

Bitcoin

Bitcoin stock-to-flow model measures Bitcoin's value through the rate of stock production and the scarcity of the resource. But is it accurate for price prediction? Find out more.

The cryptocurrency market is in its infancy and experiencing high growth. Due to its novelty, investors and traders have been looking for long-term valuation models to determine the appropriate prices for Bitcoin and other cryptos. Since Bitcoin’s total supply is limited and predicted to be mined out by 2140, one can’t help but wonder if Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise due to its absolute scarcity. One such quantitative model called the stock-to-flow model measures the Bitcoin value and predicting Bitcoin’s price over an extended period. 

We’ll look at what the stock-to-flow model is and make a comparison between the stock-to-flow of both 

. Then, we’ll unpack a model that incorporates the stock-to-flow ratio for Bitcoin and predicts its price. Lastly, we’ll discuss some problems that may prevent this model from being an accurate predictor of Bitcoin’s future.

Stock-to-flow is an investment model that measures an asset’s current stock against the rate of production or the total amount mined over the course of a year. Stock-to-flow is used to compare the relative abundance or scarcity of a particular resource.

In theory, if a resource is more scarce — for instance, precious metals such as gold, silver or platinum — then it’s likely to be a better store of value, meaning that it should retain its value and purchasing power over the long term. Beyond natural resources, other commodities such as real estate, stocks and bonds have traditionally been used as stores of value, too.

Though traditionally used as a way to compare various established resources, stock-to-flow has been adapted as a way to valuate Bitcoin, the first scarce digital resource that’s believed to be a store of value.

Valuing Bitcoin using the stock-to-flow model began with a pseudonymous author, PlanB. In his article, 

, the author explains how the flow model makes sense for an asset like Bitcoin through the highlights of the statistically significant relationship between the circulating scarcity and its impact on price.

PlanB argues that Bitcoin can be valued as a scarce resource because it contains “unforgeable costliness.” To 

, massive amounts of electricity are required at a considerable monetary cost. The author argues that these properties push Bitcoin into a group of scarce assets that can be relatively valued using the stock-to-flow model.

This is different from valuating traditional fiat currency because centralized authorities can decide to create more fiat. Fiat currency isn’t scarce and is theoretically available in unlimited supply. Bitcoin, however, has over $18 million of existing supply out of the capped 

 of 21 million, which will be mined by 2140.

The protocol behind Bitcoin is written such that no more Bitcoins will be mined or created once those 21 million have been brought into existence.

Due to the open-source code of Bitcoin, we know that Bitcoin’s rate of production is always decreasing. Every 210,000 blocks, or about every four years, the network goes through a halving process. This means the amount of Bitcoin a miner receives as a reward for validating a block is cut in half. This 

 entails that the production of new Bitcoin becomes smaller every four years.

This has a fairly immediate impact on the Bitcoin value, as the stock-to-flow ratio increases at each halving — creating an even scarcer resource.  

The stock-to-flow ratio is a straightforward calculation.

In this case, stock represents the current availability of the resource. Using gold as an example, its stock would include how much gold has already been mined

The flow would represent the new gold being mined. Generally, the stock-to-flow ratio is measured on a 12-month basis. Therefore, its flow would represent how much mining is expected to take place over the next 12 months.

For Bitcoin, stock would include the amount of Bitcoin which has already been mined to date, and flow would refer to the amount of Bitcoin being mined over the next 12 months.

Since Bitcoin’s code is open-source, anyone who can read computer code can see how Bitcoin works. As a result, we know exactly how much Bitcoin exists at this moment. Additionally, we know when, and how much, new Bitcoin is created — identifying the supply scarcity.

 have been mined. The average time for the production of a new block in the Bitcoin blockchain takes around 10 minutes. As an incentive for the mining efforts, miners are rewarded 6.25 BTC whenever they add a new block of transactions into the blockchain. 

This means that 6.25 BTC are created every 10 minutes.  

That’s 37.5 BTC (6.25/10 minutes × 60 minutes/hour) created every hour, and 900 BTC (37.5/hour x 24 hours/day) created daily.

Therefore, the current annual flow of Bitcoin is 900/day x 365.25 days per year = 328,725 BTC.

As of fall 2021, the circulating supply of BTC was 18.8 million. There is a flow of 0.33 million bitcoins (328,725 ÷ 1,000,000).

This gives Bitcoin a current stock-to-flow ratio of 18.8 million ÷ 0.33 million = 57.

Every four years, the number of bitcoins mined is halved. At the time of this writing, a miner receives 6.25 bitcoins as a reward for mining each block. When the next halving occurs in 2024, the mining reward will be reduced to 3.125, which means the rate of new Bitcoin being created after that time will be reduced by 50%.

This inevitably and consistently reduces the flow portion of the ratio. When you reduce the denominator of a ratio, it increases the total value of the ratio.

As a result, Bitcoin’s SF ratio will increase significantly at the next halving in 2024, driving it to a ratio of nearly 120.

A low stock-to-flow ratio suggests there’s a lot of new production relative to the current stock available. This implies the inflation of the resource is likely to be strong. When a product is heavily inflated, the price to buy that product lowers significantly.

Fortunately for Bitcoin, its S2F ratio is unlikely to shrink. This is because the numerator of the ratio is steadily increasing each year. The denominator of the ratio will shrink every four years. As a result, the resulting S2F ratio continues to grow.

Gold vs. Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Models: The Differences

There are several fundamental differences between the SF ratios of gold and Bitcoin.

The current SF ratio for gold is near 62.

As you recall, the current SF ratio for Bitcoin is near 57.

The similarity of these SF ratios indicates the scarcity of these two resources, meaning that they’re excellent stores of value.

Though these ratios are relatively close together, there is a notable difference: Gold’s SF ratio has fluctuated over the past 100 years.  

Since 1900, gold’s SF ratio has bounced between 45 and 90. This is largely a result of the production rate increasing and decreasing over time based on market conditions.

On the other hand, Bitcoin’s mining schedule is systematic and known in advance. Production of new Bitcoin will decrease by 50% every four years. This means that Bitcoin’s SF ratio accelerates with each four-year halving.

The next Bitcoin halving is estimated to take place in 2024. Once it occurs, the SF ratio for Bitcoin will increase, as noted, to approximately 120.

Bitcoin’s increasing SF ratio will accurately indicate more scarcity, which in turn will imply a higher value.

Using the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model for Price Prediction

PlanB researched this stock-to-flow ratio and ran a regression analysis against Bitcoin’s price history. In other words, he researched how the price and stock-to-flow model overlapped to see if there was any correlation.

His findings were remarkable. He discovered that Bitcoin’s price was modeling — and closely following — a formula that included Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio.

When you inspect this formula, the only variable is the stock-to-flow ratio. (The letter 

.) Technically, this ratio increases slightly every day as new Bitcoin is added to the stock. It is this small increase in the daily SF ratio which drives the model price higher.

Then, every four years, the SF ratio makes a drastic jump. When you graph this formula, it looks something like this:

The chart above takes the model price formula and smoothes it out by applying a 463-day simple moving average.

Notice the scale of pricing on the left-hand side. After each halving, the model price for Bitcoin jumps higher by an order of magnitude, then settles into a sideways consolidation.

As the SF ratio jumps, the model price for Bitcoin jumps, too. This illustrates how the scarcity of a valuable product has an impact on its price.

Now, let’s overlay the actual price of Bitcoin since its inception.

The overlap is quite impressive, as the price of Bitcoin has tracked the model fairly well. In its early days, there was limited trading, and access to Bitcoin was very difficult to obtain.

Now, several crypto exchanges have come online, making the acquisition and trading of Bitcoin much easier.

One thing to notice when reviewing the chart above is that price doesn’t precisely follow the model. There are times when the price overshoots the model to the upside. Then, the price will undershoot the model to the low side.

Some traders compare the price of Bitcoin to its model to determine if Bitcoin is overvalued and expensive, or undervalued and cheap.

Currently, the model suggests the price of Bitcoin should be around $107K. At the time of this writing, on Oct. 19, Bitcoin is trading near $62K, which is almost half of its modeled price. As a result of this discrepancy, some traders may conclude that the price of Bitcoin is extremely undervalued and cheap.

On the chart above, the orange line shows the actual price deviation from the model price. When the orange line is above the green line, it shows the actual price is above the model price. When the orange line is below the green line, the actual price is underperforming relative to the model.

Traders may interpret this to mean that the model has worked in the past, but is starting to break down as a predictor of price. The recent underperformance has placed Bitcoin the farthest below the model price in its history. Ultimately, it’s up to you to do your own research and arrive at your own conclusion.

Problems with the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model

The Bitcoin SF model has done a fantastic job of describing Bitcoin’s past price history and demonstrating why Bitcoin has been valued at high prices relative to 10 years ago. Will the model last forever? Will this model accurately forecast the price of Bitcoin years into the future?

Let’s unpack a couple of blind spots that may break the model, making it a poor predictor of future price action. 

Bitcoin’s issuance schedule and relative scarcity aren’t the only reasons for its rise in price. Demand also plays a factor in the network’s value.

Consider that there are several blockchain platforms, such as Litecoin and Cardano with similar structures and issuance schedules. These blockchains’ currencies have scarcity with limited supply and decreasing production schedules. However, their SF models don’t accurately forecast prices for these blockchains. 

The prices of these cryptocurrencies don’t match the SF model because the demand to buy into those blockchains is significantly lower than that for the original Bitcoin. Therefore, if events were to unfold that negatively affect the demand for Bitcoin, then the value of Bitcoin would decouple from the SF valuation model.

Problem 2: Gold’s Stock-to-Flow Doesn’t Drive Its Price

As a result of Bitcoin’s periodic halving, its stock-to-flow ratio regularly jumps. It’s reasonable to assume that a contracting supply would fuel Bitcoin’s dramatic price increase.

Intuitively, this makes sense. We experienced a little bit of a supply shortage during the pandemic in March 2020 when 

 suddenly became scarce. As rumors swirled about a potential TP shortage, people began to buy it up — even if they didn’t need it. That additional demand further exacerbated the shortage.

However, it was the short supply that fueled an increase in demand. If a simple supply cut and the SF ratio were great price predictors, then gold analysts would be using them all the time.

The reality is that non-professional investors didn’t begin to hear about the concept of stock-to-flow ratio until PlanB’s research burst onto the scene.

, the price of gold is uncorrelated to its SF ratio:

Leaning on the long history of gold suggests that stock-to-flow is not an accurate predictor of price for it. Therefore, it can be argued that stock-to-flow is not a predictor for the value of Bitcoin, either.

Problem 3: SF Ratio Doesn’t Explain Price for Other Cryptos

If the stock-to-flow ratio were the most important driver in a cryptocurrency’s value, then why not create another crypto that’s scarce, and halves every month? The reason this hasn’t happened is that the SF ratio isn’t the main driver of a cryptocurrency’s value.

We can also lean on current examples like 

, which are replicas of Bitcoin but do not enjoy the same valuations.

Problem 4: Buying Power Needs to Grow Exponentially

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model: Will Scarcity Help Retain BTC’s Long-Term Value?

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