Beyond the Middle East Conflict: Another big market event you can't miss

• Monthly US jobs report, due Friday, March 6th @ 1:30PM UTC, may inject more market volatility amid ongoing Middle East conflict

• US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) critical for Fed rate decisions, amid threats of higher oil prices stoking US inflation

• Economists predict 55,000 new jobs added in Feb 2026 (down sharply from January's 130k) and unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%

• Resilient US hiring may boost US equities and cryptos, while weaker-than-expected NFP could lift precious metals like gold and silver

• Scroll to bottom for forecasted price reactions across BTC, ETH, S&P 500, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold, Silver, Oil and more.

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Of course, markets are still closely monitoring the fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which can affect the global economy via:

• higher oil prices

• inflationary shocks

• central bank policies (potentially higher interest rates to curb inflation)

• soaring US dollar

• soured risk appetite

... and various other avenues.

At the time of writing:

• Brent Oil (Bybit: UKOUSD) is still trading around $84/bbl, holding around its highest prices since July 2024.

READ MORE: How high could Brent Oil go?

• Bybit's SP500 is easing back lower away from the 6,900 mark, in what has been a topsy-turvy week, resisted yet again around its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

• Safe haven Gold is holding steady above $5100, while Silver is trading around $83 - sandwiched between its 21-day and 50-day SMAs.

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) is easing slightly into sub-$72k territory, after yesterday (Wed, March 4) breaching the $74k mark for the first time in a month.

But beyond the Middle East conflict, which has yet to show signs of abating ...

The monthly US jobs report due Friday, March 6th, is set to inject more volatility into global financial markets.

NOTE: The US nonfarm payrolls report (NFP) is typically released on the first Friday of every month.

Economists' forecasts for Fed 2026 US NFP (nonfarm payrolls)

Here's what experts predict for the incoming US jobs data set to be released Friday, March 6th @ 1:30PM UTC:

• Headline NFP figure (new jobs added to the US labour market): 55,000 If so, this would be drastically lower than the blowout 130k new jobs added in January 2026.

• Unemployment rate: 4.3% If so, this would match January's jobless rate

Why US jobs report still matters amidst the Middle East conflict?

The incoming US jobs report remains critical to markets despite the Middle East conflict because it directly influences Federal Reserve policy decisions at a time when inflation risks are already elevated from surging energy prices. 

The jobs data will help determine whether the Fed can continue easing monetary policy (cut interest rates) or must hold rates higher for longer.

Strong hiring in the world's biggest economy from the month prior (January 2026) has already prompted markets to scale back rate-cut expectations to just a 62% chance of TWO Fed rate cuts this year. 

This makes the upcoming NFP report a pivotal factor for asset pricing across equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, as well as cryptos - even as geopolitical tensions dominate headlines.

Potential Near-Term Scenarios

• A US jobs market that's holding resilient may boost major assets like US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, etc.). Risk assets such as cryptos may also take delight in such a report.

• On the other hand, precious metals like Gold (XAUUSD+) and Silver (XAGUSD) may move higher if a much weaker-than-expected US jobs report restores bets for Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Market Predictions: How are major assets expected to react to March 6th NFP?

These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the NFP release @ 1:30 PM UTC tomorrow (Fri, March 6)

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT):  as much as 1.7% up / 2.3% down

• Ethereum (ETHUSDT): as much as 1.6% up / 3.2% down

• Ripple (XRPUSDT): as much as 2.2% up / 3.2% down

• Solana (SOLUSDT): as much as 2.8% up / 3.7% down

• Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 0.9% up / 1.2% down

• Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 1.5% up / 2.1% down

• Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 0.7% up / 1.6% down

• EURUSD+: as much as 0.6% up / 0.6% down

• GBPUSD+: as much as 0.5% up / 0.5% down

• USDJPY+: as much as 0.8% up / 0.7% down

• S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.8% up / 1.7% down

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1% up / 1.8% down