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Today, markets are growing increasingly hopeful that tensions will ease further in the Middle East conflict.
The media has reported fresh discussions between the US and Iran for another round of ceasefire talks, after last weekend's negotiations in Islamabad collapsed.
Despite the ongoing US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the latest news is fostering some risk-on moves across global financial markets:
WTI Crude Oil (Bybit: USOUSD): -1.8%, back below $100/bbl once more
Gold (XAUUSD+): +0.5%, still struggling to secure daily close above $4800 so far this month
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): +1.7%, trading around a 4-week high!
Bybit's SP500: +0.2%, and more notably ...
The S&P 500 has erased all of its declines since the Iran war began!
The S&P 500, which is tracked by Bybit's SP500, is arguably the most popular way to measure the overall performance of US stock markets.
Let's break it down:
To put its recovery into proper context, the SP500 has:
posted its highest daily closing price since Feb 26 (for reference: first US-Israeli strikes on Iran, along with Iran's retaliation across the region, began Feb 28)
reclaimed 6,900 handle - first time since March 2nd (using intraday prices)
restored year-to-date gains: now +0.6% so far in 2026; +5.5% so far this April
rebounded as much as 9.3% since March 31st intraday low of 6316.42
secured an advance in 8 of the past 9 daily sessions
At the time of writing ...
The SP500 is now just less than 2% away from its all-time high of 7017.52 posted on Jan 28th (intraday high).
If you think the SP500's 5.5% month-to-date ascent is remarkable, consider the month-to-date performances of these other major stock indices:
Taiwan RIC Index: +14.6% - this stock index has even posted a new record high!
Nikkei225: +13.3%
NETH25: +6.5%
FRA40: +6%
GER40: 5.8%
Clearly stock indices have been a favoured instrument among traders to express their optimism surrounding a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Markets are hoping that the worst of the Iran war is now behind us.
Such expectations have only been fuelled by today's headlines that President Trump is signalling a willingness for the US to return to the negotiating table with Iran.
The "buy the dip" mantra has clearly resonated among traders and investors so far this month.
Recall in our special report published on March 1st, we expected the SP500 to tumble "briefly" at the onset of the Iran war.
The expected full, and eventual, recovery was likely delayed by the fact that the Strait of Hormuz was practically shut in an unprecedented shock for global oil markets, sending the likes of Brent and WTI Crude prices spiking above $100.
Still, we contend that a period of 6 weeks does constitute a "brief" period, at least in the grand scheme of things.
Of course, traders and investors must remain vigilant over the latest developments surrounding the Iran war.
If the market's optimism does not match geopolitical realities, a sudden re-escalation in the Middle East conflict may force the SP500 and other riskier assets to unwind some of their recent gains.
Also, we are now in the early phases of the latest US quarterly earnings season.
Should mega-cap companies and sector-leading names be able to cite resilience in their respective future earnings, that may embolden risk-taking activities and potentially push the SP500 and other global stock indexes even higher, assuming of course the Iran war does not re-escalate.
However, if mega-cap companies and sector-leading names grow worried about their future earnings, perhaps citing the effects of the Iran war and lingering inflation risks, that may dampen risk appetite and potentially prompt some profit-taking on the SP500 and other global stock indexes. Another sudden spike in geopolitical tensions is bound to force risk assets back lower as well.
READ MORE: "3 Assets to Watch" as US earnings season kicks off this week (published Monday, April 13).