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Bitcoin Futures-Spot Spread Reaches Eight-Month High as Sentiment Improves

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Written By: Marcus Wang

Edited by: Charmyn Ho

Macro and Overall Risk Sentiment

The much-anticipated U.S. December CPI print meets market expectations, registering the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Nasdaq 100 has recorded a five-day winning streak, where interest rate-sensitive tech stocks lead the rebound. Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market has followed in the footsteps of equities, with both BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT reaching 2-month highs.

BTCUSDT Perpetual

Bitcoin stands firmly above $18k for the first time since FTX’s collapse, chalking off an 11.8% return in the past week. The breakout was remarkable as Bitcoin price surged above 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels within a week, with an immediate resistance at $19.2k. Nonetheless, RSI has reached 80.5 on the daily chart, signaling a potential retracement due to overbought conditions on the largest cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, the spread between the nearest-term Bitcoin futures and the spot price has reached 2.48%, a level last seen in April 2022, suggesting a strong bullish momentum has materialized as FTX impact is watered down. That said, the perpetual funding rate weighted by open interests has turned less positive after the rapid price rebound, which indicates a price adjustment may be imminent.

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ETHUSDT Perpetual

Similarly, Ether has pushed through the $1,400 psychological level, a two-month high, facing immediate resistance at the 200-day EMA of $1,500. While the 7-day DMA of the perpetual funding rate drops slightly, the open interests of Ether futures in terms of ETH have reached a record level. In comparison, Bitcoin’s open interests have not seen such a surge. As such, it is likely that more market participants are placing a bet on the positive impact of the upcoming Shanghai upgrade, which is scheduled in March to switch on staked ETH withdrawal.

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