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Written By: Marcus Wang
Edited by: Charmyn Ho
Q4 U.S. GDP beat market expectations, stoking hopes of a softer landing. Bulls bet on an imminent “Fed Pivot”, brushing off weak corporate earnings released this week. Meanwhile, the crypto market momentum remains bullish, with both BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT gaining 9.4% and 2.2%, respectively, in the past week. Interestingly, Bitcoin continues to outperform Ether atypically during the risk-on period, where Ether’s bulls behave weaker than expected as the market anticipates the upcoming Shanghai upgrade.
BTC has clung to $23k in the past week, facing immediate resistance at $24.7k, the 50% Fibonacci level based on a peak price of $30k. As $25k is another significant psychological level, a breakout from this level may signal another leg up. Bitcoin perpetual’s funding rate has been consistently positive at a level of 0.01% within a period of 8 hours, suggesting that bulls still have the upper hand. The rebound since early January snaps the ever-declining spot-to-future-volume ratio, which points to a reviving trading interest from investors.
Bitcoin has rebounded more than 40% month-to-date without major adjustments, while the correlation between Bitcoin and equities spiked in the same period. As such, any price adjustment from equities may weigh on cryptocurrencies in the foreseeable future.
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ETH was bound in the range of $1,550 to $1650 in the past week, firmly above its 200-day EMA. ETH faces a strong resistance level at $1800, while $1500 will be a strong support if the investor sentiment turns sour. Similar to Bitcoin, Ether’s perpetual funding rate has been consistently positive, while the red flag is falling open interests of futures, indicating some profits have been realized. Meanwhile, the anticipation of the Shanghai upgrade has failed to revive the depressed on-chain transactions, straining Ether’s price movement as Ether’s valuation is closely linked with community activities.
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