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Written By: Marcus Wang
Bears have taken the upper hand in U.S. stock markets since the release of the higher-than-expected January CPI print. Treasury yields continue to surge, suggesting markets are factoring into more rate hikes from the Fed. Meanwhile, the crypto market barely moved, with both BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT gaining 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively, in the past week.
While Bitcoin failed to test $25k in the past two weeks, the largest currency retreated, facing the closest support level at the 20-day EMA of $23.5k. However, Bitcoin still sees chances to stage another round of breakout. The weighted average perpetual funding rate is still positive, while the open interests in terms of BTC remain stable, suggesting that bearish sentiments have not spread to the broader market. Furthermore, the basis between Bitcoin futures and spot has rebounded from its recent decline, set to test a period high if market sentiment does not turn sour.
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Similarly, Ether sees support at its 20-day EMA level at $1,630. Since the rebound in December, Ether has closely tracked Bitcoin’s performance or even underperformed most of the time. Despite price surges in Ethereum’s liquid staking tokens and Ethereum Layer 2 tokens, Ether’s performance has clearly lost ground to those Ethereum-related tokens. In theory, Ether should have benefited from spiking activities and the popularity of its Layer 2 ecosystem, let alone investors’ anticipation of the upcoming Shanghai upgrade. Nonetheless, investors are seemingly more after smaller cap tokens as the broader market revives, as evidenced by the higher perpetual funding rate on MATIC and DYDX, among others.
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