Payout Pivot

Chart of the Day

Reserve Risk quantifies the opportunity cost of Bitcoin HODLers who decide not to cash out during bull cycles. The opportunity cost is positively correlated to the price of BTC, or profit-realizing activities among HODLers. Historically, market tops often come along with Reserve Risk breaking through the 0.02 ceiling and sometimes rising above 0.07, as evidenced by peaks in previous cycles. As we can see, the current cycle is nowhere near the heat zone at 0.02, which provide some validation to the narrative of a ‘supercycle’.