Our monthly report delves into insights from options volatility to inspire your next crypto move.

Following the significant expiration of contracts on Dec 27, 2024, and despite the largest single-day expiration in crypto derivatives history, the anticipated spike in volatility did not materialize. Instead, the realized volatility of BTC, ETH and SOL declined, defying expectations. Key takeaways include the following:

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Market Dynamics Post-Expiration in December 2024

Although the December 27 expiration saw over $435 million in contracts expire, the actual market response was muted. Only $65.53 million of BTC options expired 

 (ITM), indicating that the majority of significant contracts expired worthless. The clustering of ITM puts and calls at high strike levels (between $70K and $105K) highlighted the lack of significant hedging activity that typically drives volatility during expiration events.

As a result, realized volatility for BTC, ETH and SOL fell, with the most notable declines observed in the days following the expiration. This trend reflects a market environment in which sophisticated trading strategies haven’t led to the anticipated volatility spikes, indicating a cautious sentiment among traders.

Could $100K Hold This Time? — and Volatility Premiums

Despite the lack of immediate volatility following the expiration, forward-looking volatility expectations for 2025 remain elevated. Implied volatility levels for BTC and ETH have traded sideways, but the premium over realized volatility is at its highest since before the Nov 5, 2024 U.S. elections, suggesting traders are preparing for potential future price swings.

The term structure of implied volatility indicates a stable demand for short-term options, even as the market navigates a quieter winter. Meanwhile, the return to BTC prices above $100K hasn’t seen the same level of inversion in term structure as previous rallies, suggesting a less aggressive market stance. However, a bullish call-skew in shorter-tenor volatility smiles indicates ongoing optimism among traders regarding potential price movements in the near future.

Advanced

block-scholes-x-bybit-report.jpeg

Bybit X Block Scholes Option Volatility Report (January 2025): Reflections From Year-End Expirations; Will $100K Hold This Time?

Discover Rifampicin (RIF), a Solana-based token merging decentralized science with longevity research on Pump.science. Explore live experiments, gamified funding and predictions.

Rifampicin (RIF) is the gamified compound token for the Rifampicin experiment, representing longevity research conducted with the compound Rifampicin. As part of the 

 (DeSci) movement spearheaded by Molecule and 

, RIF is connected to the Pump.science platform, which leverages blockchain’s decentralized nature to democratize access to research and innovation.

This guide explores what Pump.science is, the RIF token (including its launch and trading) and the way Pump.science seeks to address critical challenges within longevity research.

 highlights three core challenges in developing life-extending interventions.

Traditional research, such as that conducted through human and mouse trials, is often slow and expensive. With more potential drug molecules than atoms in the universe, high-throughput methods are essential. Pump.science leverages blockchain and gamification to balance speed, cost and quality, accelerating discoveries while maintaining data integrity.

 is a blockchain-based research protocol that democratizes the process of conducting and funding scientific experiments, with a focus on longevity research. By breaking down barriers to scientific innovation, Pump.science fosters a more inclusive and creative environment for discoveries.

The platform allows users to propose longevity-focused drug regimens, test them on experimental platforms such as 

 (with plans to expand to other models) and retain ownership of the resulting intellectual property (IP). Results are transparently shared for community review and collaboration.

Think of it as a virtual arena for scientific experimentation, in which regimens compete to extend lifespans. The Colosseum is now a petri dish, the gladiators are microscopic organisms and their weapons are cutting-edge longevity strategies.

How Pump.science Aims to Solve the Longevity Trilemma

Pump.science uses tools such as WormBot to gamify research, creating a Percentage Life Extension (PLE) score as a benchmark for success. Here’s how the basic process works:

This approach reduces research costs, democratizes participation and introduces a transparent, collaborative system for scientific advancement.

Pump.science is a blockchain-based platform that decentralizes and funds longevity research through gamified experimentation. Its process includes the following steps:

This milestone-driven approach combines accessible funding with transparent experimentation, enabling a collaborative and efficient path to discovering effective longevity compounds.

Pump.science integrates decentralized funding with structured, milestone-based experimentation, ensuring each stage is financially feasible and tied to measurable thresholds, as follows:

These thresholds are informed by extensive analysis of historical trading data on platforms like 

, ensuring alignment between funding goals and realistic market behavior.

Efficient and Transparent Research Funding

This structured funding model reduces reliance on centralized gatekeepers, enabling community-driven innovation and collaboration.

 (RIF) is a token on the Solana blockchain that represents ownership in longevity experiments using the compound Rifampicin. Traditionally an antibiotic, Rifampicin is gaining attention for its potential anti-aging properties. Studies of 

 (worms) suggest Rifampicin enhances cellular defenses against stress and damage, extending lifespan by maintaining protein quality and reducing oxidative stress.

On Pump.science, investors can fund and monitor real-time experiments by using RIF tokens.

The RIF token represents intellectual property and experimental rights for Rifampicin on Pump.science. Participants can trade the token and view data from studies that assess its impact on longevity. Its tokenomics ensure efficient funding, as well as transparency and scalability for advancing scientific discovery.

As trading scales, RIF tokens empower participants to fund and benefit from transformative scientific breakthroughs.

 (FDV) of $42 million, reflecting its total supply of 1 billion tokens. Its price performance indicates its potential, as follows:

Pump.science’s clear and ambitious road map for 2025 indicates that the platform is set to expand its impact on decentralized longevity research.

By integrating RIF tokens and leveraging blockchain for funding and data sharing, Pump.science is transforming longevity research into a collaborative and gamified frontier.

Rifampicin (RIF) is now available to trade as a Bybit Perpetual contract. Trade 

Intermediate

rifampicin.png

Rifampicin (RIF): Gamified Decentralized Science

Fuel (FUEL) redefines Ethereum Layer 2 with modular design, parallelized transactions, and developer-friendly tools, enabling scalable, low-cost DApps.

 blockchain solutions have mushroomed over the past few years. As a result, developers have a solution for building efficient, low-cost and scalable 

 (DApps), a phenomenon mainly driven by Ethereum's network congestion, poor scalability and high transaction costs. However, many of these Layer 2 networks continue to suffer from performance issues, albeit not to the extent of 

 network. Some blockchain technicians have attributed such performance limitations to the monolithic nature of these platforms.

Fuel is a Layer 2 solution for the Ethereum blockchain that aims to address these problems by adopting a highly modular design and technical innovations such as parallelized transaction processing. Having started as an 

, one of the first of its kind within the world of Ethereum, Fuel has evolved into a modular, high-performance execution layer designed to help developers build scalable DApps. While offering an efficient, high-performance execution layer, Fuel utilizes Ethereum's own data availability (DA) and 

First introduced in 2020, the Fuel project entered a new era at the tail end of 2024 with the launch of its native token, FUEL, and a sharper focus on providing high-performance execution layer infrastructure.

 (FUEL) is a Layer 2-focused blockchain infrastructure project offering a high-performance modular execution layer while utilizing Ethereum’s Layer 1 DA and consensus layers

.Fuel was initially launched in December 2020 as one of the earliest optimistic rollups for Ethereum. Over the next several years, the project’s team refocused their efforts on delivering a modular, scalable Layer 2 solution with its own execution layer, externalizing the DA and consensus layers.

The result of this new approach is the current Fuel network, sometimes referred to as Fuel V2, which acts as what the project has called an operating system for Ethereum rollups. In essence, Fuel V2 offers developers a convenient and flexible way to launch rollup networks and DApps that leverage Fuel's modular architecture principles — an internal and highly scalable execution layer interacting with Ethereum's DA and consensus layers.

Rollups developed using the Fuel framework will feature significant mutual interoperability, in addition to the core benefits of scalability, low costs and Ethereum-supported security. The project’s team launched the first of these Fuel-powered rollups, Fuel Ignition, in October 2024.

As of early 2025, Fuel is actively building an infrastructural ecosystem to support Fuel Ignition and other Fuel-based rollup networks. For instance, users can already take advantage of the platform's native 

, Fuel Wallet, which lets them interact with DApps based on Fuel-powered rollup networks.

Fuel is also actively working on decentralizing its network to enhance security and performance. While a typical rollup solution uses a single sequencer node, a key network actor responsible for both block-building and proposing blocks to the underlying Layer 1, Fuel separates the roles of the builder and the proposer between distinct nodes. Fuel has already completed Phase 0 of its sequencer decentralization initiative, and operates 12 proposers and a single builder. Phase 1 will introduce multiple builders, along with around 100 proposers. The final stage of decentralization, Phase 2, is envisioned to feature as many as 10,000 sequencer proposers.

Fuel aims to be developer-friendly, and offers blockchain developers a toolbox called 

 to facilitate easy scripting and deployment of 

The project's developer is Fuel Labs, a Vancouver (Canada)–based blockchain development company founded by John Adler and Nick Dodson in 2019.

Fuel-based rollups boast performance and security benefits, thanks to several technological innovations, particularly a modular design, a highly secure 

 address model and parallelized transaction processing.

Fuel's technical advantages are based on architectural modularity. Most other rollups use Ethereum Layer 1 only for consensus, internalizing their execution and DA layers. Sidechains, another popular Layer 2 network type besides rollups, often keep all three blockchain layers under the hood. Such monolithic designs may limit scalability or security — or both.

In contrast, Fuel internally handles only the execution layer, allowing the overall platform to remain highly flexible and adaptable. Some other modular rollups adopt the same approach, but they often outsource their DA layers to partnering DA providers, many of which are small projects with less established security profiles. Fuel, on the other hand, utilizes Ethereum Layer 1 directly for both DA and consensus. Since Ethereum is one of the industry's most secure and decentralized platforms, Fuel's overall modular setup enjoys high levels of security.

Another key security advantage of Fuel stems from its UTXO transaction model. While Ethereum and many Ethereum-linked Layer 2 chains employ an account-based model, Fuel utilizes a UTXO setup in which each network address contains unspent amounts from earlier transactions, and each transfer represents an exchange of these unspent funds. First implemented by 

’s blockchain, UTXO is regarded as more secure than Ethereum's account-based model, particularly with regard to protections from 

Fuel's UTXO model also features another critical performance advantage — namely, support for parallel transaction processing. At runtime, Fuel's processing engine determines which transactions don't overlap, in terms of the addresses and UTXO amounts involved. Non-overlapping transactions are then processed in parallel, delivering significant scalability and throughput advantages.

FuelVM is the platform's processing engine. Fuel's virtual machine (VM) is a register-based system designed to optimize performance and parallelized transaction execution. Register-based VMs are one of the two most popular types of VMs, along with stack-based systems like 

 (EVM). Within a stack-based VM, data is stored in and retrieved from a temporary memory stack during transaction processing. In such systems, data pieces are stored and accessed in a last-in, first-out (LIFO) fashion, creating performance bottlenecks, such as a need for frequent instructions or a lack of direct access.

In contrast, a register-based system such as FuelVM processes data pieces held in registers — separate labeled storage areas. Such a design delivers performance benefits in the form of fewer instructions, enabling a more straightforward implementation of parallelized processing.

Sway is a programming language for writing Fuel-based 

. It's a domain-specific language, adapted to the needs of blockchain developers. Sway is based on Rust, a popular general-purpose programming language that emphasizes performance and concurrent processing. Since Fuel heavily leverages parallelized processing in order to achieve its scalability and throughput benefits, the Rust-based Sway is an optimal language for the Fuel platform's smart contracts.

While Sway has inherited many of Rust's properties, Fuel Labs has specifically adapted it for blockchain-based smart contract development. As such, blockchain development with Sway is typically easier and more efficient than using Rust.

Fuel Ignition is the first rollup network to leverage FuelVM. We noted earlier that Fuel is essentially a high-performance execution layer that developers can leverage to launch custom rollups. Theoretically, many different Ethereum-linked rollup chains can utilize Fuel and become part of the platform's ecosystem. Fuel Ignition represents the first step in this direction.

Fuel Ignition features one-second block times and gas fees that are small fractions of a cent. According to the project's public communications, transaction fees on Fuel Ignition can be lower than $0.0002. The Fuel Ignition Layer 2 chain utilizes Ethereum's DA layer. It optimizes the cost and efficiency of data processing on the underlying Layer 1 through the implementation of 

, an experimental Ethereum feature that uses bundles of data called "blobs," instead of standard transactions.

Fuel Ignition boasts a throughput of over 600 

 (TPS) on the Ethereum DA layer. It also features a high TPS per CPU core, with a throughput of 21,000 TPS per CPU. With parallelized processing and high TPS per core, Fuel Ignition is ideally suited for mass adoption on consumer hardware.

Another distinct feature of Ignition is its nearly universal support for Ethereum and 

 (SOL) native wallets. As of early January 2024, the blockchain already has over 60 live DApps operating on it in areas ranging from 

FuelProver is the platform's hybrid proof-generation solution that combines the features of optimistic fraud proofs and 

. Rollups pass these proofs along with blocks of transactions to the underlying Layer 1 chain to help validate transaction data. Optimistic rollups generally offer lower computational overheads, while ZK-rollups feature greater security. FuelProver is envisioned to combine the benefits of the two rollup types, helping developers integrate Fuel's execution layer into both varieties.

Fuel's native cryptocurrency, FUEL, is an 

 token issued on the Ethereum blockchain in December 2024. One of the token's key functions is to support the project's decentralized sequencer network, which is based on the 

 (PoS) validation method. The network utilizes FUEL to secure its operations via staking and stake delegation. Sequencers are rewarded in FUEL for their transaction processing activity. Other platform users can delegate FUEL to preferred sequencers to earn a share of the rewards.

Developers pay in FUEL to utilize the platform's resources, such as access to DA. Gas fees on the sequencer network are also paid in FUEL tokens.

The FUEL token is also used for Application Specific Sequencing, whereby users can bond their FUEL to a specific DApp and earn staking rewards from that application.

FUEL has a total supply of 10 billion, with an annual supply inflation of 3%. The image below details the token’s distribution:

The Fuel project has announced a genesis airdrop campaign, during which 10% of the FUEL supply (1 billion tokens) will be distributed to more than 200,000 eligible addresses. Recipients include various groups of early adopters, including testnet users, holders of NFTs on Fuel Ignition, those bridging funds to the blockchain, active gas users and open-source code contributors. The airdrop is active between Dec 19, 2024 and Jan 19, 2025.

The FUEL token can be purchased as Spot pair (

) on Bybit. As of Jan 7, 2024, FUEL is trading at $0.067, which is 19.8% lower than its ATH of $0.08375 on Dec 29, 2024 and 78.5% higher than its ATL of $0.03762 on Dec 20, 2024.

Until Jan 14, 2025, 8AM UTC, you have the chance to 

 by embarking on Bybit’s Puzzle Hunt! To earn FUEL rewards, start by registering for the Puzzle Hunt event. Then, collect puzzle pieces either by completing simple daily tasks or receiving the pieces from your friends. If you complete three consecutive puzzle pieces, you can earn achance at a lucky draw to unlock even more FUEL rewards. Additionally, be among the first 600 participants to complete the entire puzzle, and you can claim 5,000 FUEL!

Fuel’s network offers developers a unique environment in which to spin off Ethereum rollups. The developer toolchain — featuring Fuel Orchestrator, the Sway programming language and the parallel processing–capable FuelVM — offers outstanding tools that, along with the platform's high throughput capacity and modular design, make the job of launching high-performance rollups that much easier. As Fuel progresses in 2025, the project’s team is determined to keep its focus on serving the developer community, and strives to promote collaboration, innovation, education, creativity and efficiency in all matters related to blockchain rollup development.

fuel network.png

Fuel (FUEL): The Modular Ethereum Layer 2 for Developers

Solana's new proposal introduces a lattice-based hashing system to address the "state growth problem," allowing the blockchain to scale to billions of user accounts. 

Daily Top Performer —  Pudgy Penguins (PENGU)

The S&P 500 rose 0.55% on Monday, driven by gains in tech and semiconductor stocks, with Nvidia and Micron leading the way. Coindesk Indices, an index measuring broader cryptocurrency market performance was up by 2.17%, with Bitcoin and Ether rising by 4.08% and 0.61%, respectively in the past 24 hours.

Today's top performer is PENGU, which surged 3.5% following the Pudgy Penguins assets surge ahead of the Abstract Network launch.

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), launched in 2021, is a popular NFT collection with a market cap of over $1.19 billion as of December 2024. The brand has expanded into physical toys, generating $10 million in sales through partnerships with major retailers. Ahead of the launch of the Abstract Ethereum layer-2 network, Pudgy Penguins assets are increasing in value. The PENGU token has seen significant growth, while Pudgy Penguin NFTs are approaching a higher floor price. The rise is linked to growing PENGU holders and speculation of another airdrop. Companion collections Lil Pudgys and Pudgy Rods have also gained in value. Details about Abstract’s launch are still scarce, but anticipation is building.

Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data of Perp 

 introduces a lattice-based hashing system to address the "state growth problem," allowing the blockchain to scale to billions of user accounts. This system enables instant verification of accounts without recalculating the entire state, reducing computational overhead while maintaining security. Early tests have shown promising results, and the upgrade will be implemented through Solana’s formal improvement process, with gradual activation through validator voting.

Yesterday, the total flow for BTC Spot ETFs was $769.5 million, with $73.8 million in GBTC and $695.7 million in non-GBTC.

Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data of 

. To earn tokens, complete simple tasks like joining Discord or following on X. Tokens can be redeemed at TGE. To participate, connect your Solana wallet, complete tasks, and claim daily rewards. Additionally, the SLM Store charges 1 $ASRR token per query. Start now to maximize your rewards!

Beginner

3.png

Solana's New Hashing Proposal Aims to Scale Blockchain to Billions of Accounts

Bybit Learn

Crypto Insights

Short-term holder MVRV has surpassed that of the long-term holders for the first time in the current cycle. Find out more here!

31387_MARKETING_Zero_Fees_Phase_2_Batch2_287X73_(3X).png

After days of swapping funds withdrawn from FTX to ETH, the purported “FTX Account Drainer” is now swapping for BTC holdings with its ETH stack, exerting selling pressure on the price of ETH. Find out more 

After suspending the services of its lending arm last week, Genesis Global Capital saw its fund-raising efforts rendered moot as one of the companies it approached decided not to invest on the grounds of a potential conflict of interest, according to WSJ’s report. Find out more 

El Salvador Paves the Way for Full Crypto Adoption

BTC’s recent abysmal spot price actions did not put a dent in the resolution of the El Salvadoran government to continue its foray into digital currencies. Find out more 

DeFi management platforms Llama and Gauntlet have submitted a governance proposal on Aave to cover a $1.6 million bad debt brought on by a publicized short attempt on Tuesday. Find out more 

Ethereum developers are working towards including EIP-4844, a highly-anticipated scaling proposal, in a future mainnet upgrade, according to the latest Ethereum core developer meeting. Find out more 

Bybit x NGC: DeFi Meets TradFi — The Integration and Challenges Faced

This week, we explore the integration between DeFi and TradFi.

As DeFi reels in from an extended bear market, TVL and user activities have plunged remarkably from their peaks. There are voices that DeFi’s real-world usage may help drag DeFi out of the woods. 

s we look into the state of integration, challenges faced, and possible forms of integration in the future.

The market-moving narrative that captures the spotlight this week still revolves around whether the Federal Reserve could slow down the tempo of rate hikes after weighing existing economic and financial conditions against the impact of inflation. The FOMC minutes released on Wednesday signaled that many officials back a moderation in the near term, as they lean towards a 50-bps raise in December. US stocks entered the Thanksgiving holiday after notching gains for the third straight day, while the dollar weakened.  

The broader crypto market had a turbulent start this week, with a weekend sell-off extending to Monday following the FTX drainer’s massive ETH dump. However, major cryptocurrencies bounced back after RSI reached oversold zones and have since been largely range-bound, with BTC holding a stronger footing above the $16k handle and ETH struggling to defend the $1,100 threshold. 

On-chain metrics indicate that BTC long-term holders are losing convictions as they grapple with the FTX collapse. This is evidenced by a series of notable and sustained upticks in old coins (aged 6 months and above). A total of 254k old coins, accounting for 1.3% of the circulating supply, has been spent since the start of the FTX debacle. This represents the steepest decline in the supply of older coins since the last bull run in January 2021. That said, part of the coins spent may be related to the sales of BTC from the 2014 hack of the exchange Mt. Gox.

The whale cohort (those with more than 1k BTC holdings) is also submerged underwater. The average withdrawal price since 2017, indicated by the yellow line, is now above the current spot price, suggesting that this cohort of smart money and seasoned investors are also at an unrealized loss. 

Meanwhile, the short-term holder MVRV has surpassed that of the long-term holders for the first time in the current cycle, hinting that direction traders are beginning to do better than holders, whose convictions have started to wane. If history is any indication, the crossover usually marks a potential bottom formation in past cycles. Of course, the current market conditions are a lot more volatile, and the signal warrants further scrutiny. 

Macro events to look out for in the coming week 

This Week in Crypto: Multiple Indicators Show BTC Whales Capitulates; Genesis Warns of Possible Bankruptcy

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards

Grab Up to 5,000 USDT in Rewards