Explore this week's key macro trend: the upcoming FOMC meeting, and how it could potentially impact crypto and traditional markets.

Following last year's dovish moves by the US Federal Reserve, which adjusted the target range to 4.25%–4.5%, a potential reduction in interest rates could stimulate the US economy and provide a much-needed boost to both cryptocurrencies and stocks. With the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting set for March 19, 2025, investors are watching closely for insights into policymakers' outlook and future plans.

In this article, Bybit explores this week's key macro trend: the upcoming FOMC meeting. But first, let's review 

Last week, key macroeconomic reports in the US included job openings, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core Producer Price Index (PPI).

 232,000 to 7.74 million, hires rose 19,000 to nearly 5.4 million and layoffs declined (for a fourth straight month) to 34,000. Additionally, a revised December 2024 reading showed 7.508 million vacancies, down from the originally reported 7.6 million.

With job openings exceeding forecasts of 7.63 million, the labor market remains resilient despite the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy.

In February, the CPI for core (and all) items 

, slightly below the expected 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, headline inflation reached 2.8% and core inflation hit 3.1%, both 0.1% lower than analysts' forecasts.

This softer-than-expected inflation suggests that price pressures are gradually easing, potentially strengthening the case for a Fed rate cut later this year. However, trade policy uncertainty and tariffs remain key risks.

The PPI, a key measure of pipeline inflation pressures, 

 in February 2025 after jumping 0.6% in January. This was well below the 0.3% increase expected by analysts, suggesting easing cost pressures on producers.

The unexpected 0.1% decline in core PPI (excluding food and energy) further supports this trend, potentially giving the Fed more flexibility in future rate decisions.

Macro events' impact on crypto and equity markets

Following an 8.3% drop on Mar 10, 2025 after the US job openings report, the combined crypto market cap recovered all losses by March 16, closing the week at $2.75 trillion. Bitcoin followed the same trend, gaining 2.35% over seven days, while Ethereum and Solana posted a 7.24% loss and a 2.18% gain, respectively.

Equity and crypto markets moved in the same direction last week. After a sharp decline on March 10, all three major US stock indices — the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) — entered a recovery. However, equity markets closed the week lower, with the SPX, NDX and DJI losing 2.29%, 2.46% and 3.09%, respectively.

FOMC Meeting on Mar 19, 2025: What are investors watching for?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting on Mar 19, 2025. According to the 

, there’s just a 1% probability of a rate cut, with a 99% chance that the federal funds rate remains at 4.25%–4.5%. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that inflation remains 

, while the labor market continues to show strength. Given these conditions, policymakers are expected to maintain a cautious stance, waiting for more economic data before adjusting policy.

Although a March rate cut is highly unlikely, investors will focus on signals regarding future policy moves, particularly for the upcoming May and June meetings. The FOMC is set to release updated economic projections, including forecasts for inflation, GDP growth and employment. If these forecasts weaken, the chances of a May rate cut could rise. Powell's press conference will be closely watched for clues about the Fed's timing for potential rate cuts.

While March rate cuts seem to be off the table, a Fed rate cut by June remains a possibility. Based on FedWatch data, there’s an 18% probability of a rate cut in May and a 68.5% chance in June. If the Fed cuts rates in June, there’s a 57.3% probability it will lower the target range to 4.0%–4.25% and an 11.2% chance it will drop to 3.75%–4.0%.

Beyond the immediate rate decision, changes in the Fed's tone will be key. If the Fed expresses less confidence in economic strength, or highlights growing risks from tariffs and fiscal tightening, it could signal a shift toward a more dovish stance. The bond market's reaction will also be crucial, as any shift in the Fed's tone could impact Treasury yields, equities and risk sentiment.

Will Powell pause or slow quantitative tightening (QT)?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the Fed's process of shrinking its balance sheet by allowing bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This effectively removes liquidity from financial markets, making borrowing more expensive, and slowing economic activity. The Fed 

 in June 2022 as part of its strategy to combat inflation, complementing interest rate hikes by draining excess liquidity from markets.

 adding uncertainty, some FOMC officials are now considering pausing or slowing QT to prevent liquidity shortages. The Fed has already 

 from financial markets, and continued reductions could strain bank reserves and money markets. If QT persists at its current pace, liquidity risks may emerge as the Treasury refills its Treasury General Account (TGA). A sudden loss of liquidity could disrupt short-term lending markets, forcing the Fed to intervene before financial conditions deteriorate.

Market sentiment is shifting, with Polymarket bettors assigning a 

 of QT ending before May. If Powell signals a slowdown, stocks and cryptocurrencies could benefit from increased liquidity. However, the Fed remains cautious, as an early halt to QT could weaken its inflation-fighting efforts.

March 19 FOMC: A key macro event for financial markets

The Federal Reserve's upcoming March 19 FOMC meeting is a critical event for investors, with markets widely expecting no rate cut, as inflation remains above target and the labor market remains strong.

Meanwhile, last week's economic data showed resilient job openings, softer-than-expected inflation and flat producer prices, signaling a mixed outlook for monetary policy. Additionally, speculation is rising that the Fed may pause or slow quantitative tightening due to debt ceiling concerns. This shift would increase liquidity, potentially boosting risk assets, such as crypto and equities.

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Macro this week: What to expect from the March 19 FOMC meeting

Onchain Labs, in collaboration with The Arbitrum Foundation, is launching a program to accelerate onchain application development on Arbitrum.

Daily top performer — EOS Network (EOS)

The S&P 500 fell 1.07% as tech stocks declined, with Tesla down 5.3%. Investors await the Fed’s policy decision amid trade tensions and recession concerns. Gold hit a record $3,030 as tariffs, Middle East tensions, and Fed rate cut bets drive demand. Markets await the Fed’s policy decision. The Coindesk Indices, which tracks the broader crypto market, fell by 0.41%, with Bitcoin and Ether down by 2.61% and 1.57% in the past 24 hours. Trade these markets and more with up to 500x leverage on Bybit MT5 using this 

Today’s top performer is EOS, up 30.9% after EOS Network unveils Vaulta, a Web3 banking platform bridging crypto and traditional finance.

EOS Network (EOS), launched in 2018, is a fast, cost-effective blockchain for DApps, using Delegated Proof-of-Stake and EOS tokens for governance. It features rapid transactions, flexible smart contracts, and developer-friendly tools for seamless upgrades and execution. EOS Network introduces 

, a Web3 banking platform bridging digital assets and traditional finance. Launching in May 2025, it will support asset tokenization and DeFi solutions, guided by a Banking Advisory Council for compliance and adoption.

Check out the latest prices, charts, and data of 

 with The Arbitrum Foundation, is launching a program to accelerate onchain application development on Arbitrum. As the original builders of Arbitrum, Offchain Labs brings deep technical expertise and user insights to support developers in creating innovative applications. The initiative will provide product and go-to-market support while ensuring fair and equitable project launches. With Arbitrum’s advanced technology and strong developer ecosystem, Onchain Labs aims to drive the next wave of industry-leading applications, with its first project set to debut soon.

Yesterday, BTC spot ETFs saw $9.0 million in outflows, all from non-GBTC funds.

 lets users earn airdrop rewards by buying and staking lvlUSD, a stablecoin backed by USDT and USDC. Providing liquidity to the lvlUSD/USDC pool on Curve boosts XP earnings up to 40x. The program also grants eligibility for the Symbiotic airdrop, offering two rewards in one.

Beginner

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Onchain Labs launches program to accelerate Arbitrum app development

Eclipse merges Ethereum & Solana, using Solana’s SVM for high scalability. With modular design & ZK proofs, it offers fast, low-cost transactions.

 (ETH) network has revolutionized the way we look at blockchain technology. Unfortunately, Ethereum has also suffered from performance issues, due to network congestion and its suboptimal scalability setup. Two approaches to dealing with the blockchain's performance weaknesses took off around 2020 and 2021 — one was active work on alternative blockchain networks that would deliver better scalability and throughput capacity and, in parallel with it, research and development on Ethereum-linked 

The first approach led to the introduction of several high-performance networks, among which 

 (SOL) has stood out, thanks to its excellent throughput capacity of up to 65,000 

 (TPS). In turn, the work on Layer 2 solutions resulted in numerous rollup networks, with 

 (OP) probably the most dominant of these as of 2025. Both Solana and the leading rollups servicing Ethereum feature much lower transaction fees and higher processing capacity compared to Ethereum, the world's premier smart contract chain.

However, Solana isn't directly compatible with Ethereum to leverage the latter's vast ecosystem, while the existing rollups come with their own share of drawbacks — poor compatibility with non-Ethereum environments, inefficient data availability (DA) layers, inflexible validation of cryptographic proofs that accompany transaction data and the lack of parallelized processing.

Eclipse is an Ethereum Layer 2 network that utilizes the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) to offer a platform compatible with both Solana and Ethereum. Its SVM-powered engine, 

 (TIA)–based DA layer and selective use of 

 (ZK) proofs allow Eclipse to achieve stellar performance characteristics and address the main drawbacks of existing Layer 2 rollups.

 is an Ethereum Layer 2 solution that uses Solana's SVM as its processing engine to achieve greater scalability and throughput capabilities than existing Layer 2 rollups. 

The network also leverages a modular design, outsourcing its data availability (DA) layer to Celestia. Furthermore, Eclipse employs ZK proofs in an otherwise optimistic validation environment to streamline transaction processing in cases where the standard optimistic fraud proofs are challenged. 

All of these properties allow Eclipse to achieve unparalleled performance characteristics by the standards of the Ethereum ecosystem. The platform boasts transaction fees of just $0.0002, and can theoretically scale up to 65,000 TPS, the upper limit of the SVM.

Eclipse’s network has implemented the Hyperlane cross-chain protocol, allowing it to communicate directly with the ecosystems of Solana and Ethereum. As such, it's the first Ethereum-linked rollup that features direct compatibility with the Solana chain. This allows Eclipse to potentially unify the DApp ecosystems of the two major blockchains.

The Eclipse testnet was unveiled in early 2024, and its 

 was launched in November 2024 and operates without a native token of its own, instead using ETH for transaction fees and other operations. Based in San Francisco, California, Eclipse was founded in 2022 by entrepreneur/angel investor Sam Thapaliya and blockchain developer Neel Somani. The project boasts an impressive list of institutional and individual investors that includes Polychain Capital and Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana.

What is the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM)?

Eclipse's execution engine is based on Solana's SVM, which features several properties that make it more scalable and adaptable to heavy loads than Ethereum's native virtual machine, the 

. The SVM can handle up to 65,000 TPS, while the realistic throughput observed on Ethereum at its 

There’s been much discussion in the industry about the EVM scaling up to hundreds of thousands of TPS, but these improvements have yet to materialize, and are mostly dependent on utilizing Layer 2 rollups linked to the main chain. A key factor contributing to the SVM's superior throughput capacity is its ability to process multiple transactions in parallel. Unlike the SVM, the EVM engine doesn't support parallelized processing.

Another feature of Eclipse’s SVM is the ability to support programming languages commonly used in the Solana ecosystem — Rust and C. Compared to Solidity, the primary programming language used in EVM environments, Rust and C offer certain advantages in terms of both performance and security.

Like other Layer 2 platforms, Eclipse uses the Ethereum Layer 1 network for transaction settlement. This is where the finality and validity of transactions processed on Layer 2 are confirmed. The use of Layer 1 ensures that Eclipse takes advantage of Ethereum’s well-regarded security.

For end-users, a relevant detail of Eclipse’s settlement is the absence of any platform-specific token to pay for gas. Eclipse utilizes Ether (ETH) as its gas fee currency, and there are plans to introduce a gas fee abstraction mechanism that will let users pay transaction fees in other cryptocurrencies as well, e.g., in the 

Eclipse's execution layer is handled by its SVM. The platform uses a validating bridge to maintain a connection to Ethereum Layer 1, where the final transaction settlement occurs. We noted above that one key reason for Eclipse’s stellar throughput capacity is its SVM, which is capable of parallelized processing. 

Another essential aspect of its execution engine, also supported to a large extent by the parallelized processing, is the ability to smooth out transaction fees on the network via local fee markets, a blockchain mechanism that regulates platform-wide gas fees. Execution engines such as EVM are based on a global fee market system. On EVM-based chains, high demand from one app (e.g., 

) can drastically raise transaction fees for everyone. Eclipse’s SVM solves this problem by using local fee markets — instead of increasing fees across the entire network, only transactions related to the high-demand app are affected.

The DA layer is a critical part of any Layer 2 platform. It ensures that the data needed to verify transactions and execute smart contracts is publicly accessible and available for Layer 1 validators to check. Consistent with its principle of modular blockchain architecture, Eclipse outsources its DA layer to Celestia, a blockchain platform that leases its high-performance DA layer to Layer 2 networks.

In general, the Eclipse chain operates as an optimistic rollup. However, at the same time, the platform uses ZK proofs via the 

 verification provider in cases where validators on Ethereum Layer 1 challenge the standard optimistic fraud proofs. The presentation of ZK validity proofs upon these challenges significantly speeds up the verification process. This combination of optimistic fraud proofs (known for being less computationally intensive than ZK proofs) and ZK proofs during validity disputes ensures that Eclipse can efficiently validate transactions.

 to facilitate the transfer of funds between the Eclipse, Ethereum and Solana blockchains. The platform's native bridge, the 

, is primarily designed for the transfer of assets between Ethereum and Eclipse. Meanwhile, the 

 is the main bridging solution for moving crypto funds between Eclipse, Ethereum and Solana.

Additionally, several other bridges service the Eclipse ecosystem. Some of them focus on transfers between Eclipse and Ethereum, but some can also access other blockchain environments. For instance, the Retro Bridge allows you to move assets between Eclipse and a variety of blockchain platforms, including 

There's also the Hyperlane-powered Stride Bridge, which lets Eclipse users access blockchain ecosystems beyond the major ones. Using the Stride Bridge, Eclipse users can move funds from Celestia and 

 (STRD). The bridge also lists support for network transfers from the Forma blockchain and Ethereum. However, as of the time of this writing on Mar 17, 2025, transfers from these two chains to Eclipse aren’t yet supported.

 is a unified restaking token (URT) launched by Eclipse in partnership with the Nucleus yield generation services provider. It allows users to earn rewards from multiple Ethereum yield-generating protocols. By minting tETH through deposits of eligible 

 tokens (LRTs), users can benefit from diversified risk and reward exposure, with periodic yield increases and the option for redemption at full value on Ethereum or Eclipse.

 (WETH), ether.fi’s weETH, Renzo Protocol’s ezETH, Swell Network’s rswETH, Dinero’s apxETH and Puffer Finance’s pufETH.

 is an Eclipse community-driven game in which users grow "grass" by tapping or bridging assets to Eclipse. By completing app-based boosts, users can increase their grass growth rate. The goal is to feed Turbo, an ever-hungry cow, by maximizing grass growth through bridging various assets like ETH, SOL, TIA and popular 

 USDT and USDC. Solana-based tokens, such as ezSOL, JitoSOL and kySOL, can also be used to grow grass within the game.

, you need to complete a series of tasks — follow Eclipse on X, visit Eclipse’s website, explore its app ecosystem and swap $10 worth of crypto via Umbra, a privacy-focused Ethereum payment protocol. This campaign is valid until Mar 28, 2025, 7AM UTC.

The Eclipse team has come up with something unique within the wider EVM ecosystem: the ability to use Solana's high-performance execution engine adapted for Ethereum, the SVM. It offers numerous advantages over the EVM, including executing transactions in parallel and leveraging local fee markets. At the same time, while the SVM forms the backbone of transaction processing on the chain, Eclipse aims to remain within its general rollup-centric road map, operating primarily as an Ethereum rollup network. 

Besides integrating the SVM into its largely Ethereum-focused platform, Eclipse leverages modular architecture principles, outsourcing its DA layer to Celestia, one of the leading providers of DA services in the 

 industry. All of these architectural choices have resulted in a Layer 2 chain that clearly stands out for its performance in the competitive world of Ethereum rollup solutions.

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Eclipse: The perfect fusion of Ethereum and Solana

Elixir (ELX) is a blockchain platform bridging institutional RWAs to DeFi, offering yield opportunities and liquidity support for decentralized exchanges.

 (RWAs) are one of the hottest topics in 

 setting still comes with its own share of issues. First, asset owners such as investment funds don't have a wide choice of alternatives for securely tokenizing their assets in a compliant way. Secondly, there's a lack of sufficient avenues for the active use of RWAs within DeFi protocols after the assets have been tokenized and brought on-chain.

As a result, many institutional asset owners are still hesitant to use their funds within a blockchain environment. Those brave enough to adopt RWAs by tokenizing their assets on-chain face the reality of limited choices for deriving healthy returns from their investment. 

Due to these factors, RWAs — despite having great promise as a bridge between traditional and web3 finance — are still underutilized within DeFi.

Elixir is a modular blockchain and DeFi-focused platform that aims to make it easy for institutional investors to utilize their RWAs in yield-bearing products on-chain. The platform also acts as a 

, decentralized USD (deUSD), plays a key role in enabling active RWA use for yield and liquidity provision to partner DEXs.

 (ELX) is a blockchain network that facilitates institutional investors' use of RWAs in the DeFi ecosystem and provides liquidity support to DEXs. 

The project features a synthetic stablecoin, deUSD, that’s backed by collateral made up of two crypto assets — USDS and 

 (SKY), formerly known as MakerDAO (MKR), while stETH is a tokenized version of staked Ether (ETH) provided by the 

Elixir enables institutional holders of tokenized RWAs, such as those issued by Securitize and other RWA service providers, to mint deUSD and use it in DeFi while still earning yields from their underlying assets.

Elixir also helps other DEXs by enabling its users to supply liquidity to order book–based exchanges easily. This reduces DEXs' reliance on centralized market makers and allows them to access additional liquidity. Users who provide liquidity earn subsidized APYs, which are either incentivized by Elixir or the DEXs themselves. As of early 2025, Elixir has already been integrated by more than 30 DEX platforms.

The Elixir project was founded in 2022 by Philip Forte and Christopher Gilbert. Its chain launched the first phase of its mainnet operations in October 2024 and held a token generation event (TGE) for its native cryptocurrency, ELX, on Mar 7, 2025.

 (DPoS) consensus model. The project’s documentation states that its network features a highly modular design and high throughput capacity.

To synchronize its work with other DEXs, the network uses exchange feeds, which pull live trading data from these DEXs and send it to Elixir's data aggregators. An aggregator node is then responsible for creating an encrypted database from these feeds and passing it to the chain’s validator and auditor nodes. Then, relay nodes execute trades on DEXs using their API keys, collect order proposals from validators and send them for auditing before final execution.

Elixir's validators secure the network using a DPoS consensus model, whereby users can delegate their funds to a preferred full validator node. The network requires a 66% consensus among its active validator nodes in order to approve transaction blocks.

A validator node needs to have at least 9,000 ELX 

 or delegated to it to earn block rewards. As such, it's important for users to choose a reasonably popular validator in order to ensure they can earn rewards from their delegated funds. For instance, as of the time of this writing (Mar 17, 2025), fewer than 30 Elixir validators have enough funds staked with them to generate rewards.

We noted above that relay nodes send order data for executing transactions on other DEXs for further auditing before the actual execution occurs. Auditors are the 

 responsible for verifying this data before the orders can be placed. In addition to the order data sent by relay nodes, auditors also use the encrypted exchange feed data sent by aggregators.

Auditors use these two critical data sources — the encrypted exchange feed data from aggregators and the order data from relay nodes — to verify and approve the orders for final execution on the participating DEXs.

 that ensures the smooth operation of several key network activities: staking, reward distributions to validators and financial penalties to misbehaving validators, known as slashing.

In the case of disputes or inconsistencies in the network data, the controller and auditors resolve these together, acting as a dispute resolution layer.

deUSD is a synthetic stablecoin introduced by Elixir. Subject to approval via a governance vote, the token will be used for staking, allowing users to earn rewards from protocol fees. The staked version of deUSD, sdeUSD, is an asset that’s used to accrue yields from rewards generated both on Elixir and via its partner DeFi platforms.

Importantly, deUSD is also used to provide liquidity in the form of collateral to participating DEXs. The deUSD stablecoin enables users in the institutional domain, specifically RWA holders, to obtain a sufficiently liquid asset to participate in the wider DeFi ecosystem. According to the project’s documentation, more than ten leading institutional finance organizations have already adopted deUSD for their assets.

deUSD differs from many other stablecoins in that it isn’t collateralized by US dollar reserves. The token’s collateral is made up of Lido’s stETH and Sky Protocol’s USDS. To ensure its stability, deUSD is subject to an 

 adjusting overcollateralization mechanism, the 

When funding rates become negative, the OCF shifts more of deUSD’s collateral into USDS. If the OCF’s value drops too much, it automatically converts its assets into USDS to ensure deUSD’s backing remains intact. Meanwhile, when funding rates become positive, funding rate exposure — that is, the potential gains and costs from holding leveraged positions in 

 contracts — is used to generate additional returns.

During the project’s earlier period of operations, 

 (CEXs) are expected to provide the bulk of liquidity for deUSD and facilitate the token’s minting and redemption. Eventually, the protocol plans to shift more of the backing and liquidity management to decentralized platforms. The minting/redeeming process will be supported by authorized market makers, who will use stETH collateral and engage in basis trading to manage risk.

The Elixir protocol's native token, ELX, is primarily used for governance, staking and stake delegation. Certain rewards, such as 

, can also be distributed in ELX. The token’s total and maximum supply is 1 billion.

The ELX token is available on Bybit’s Spot market as a 

. You can also take advantage of Bybit’s campaign dedicated to the token to grab a share of the 

Under the terms of the campaign, new users can earn ELX rewards by accumulating a deposit volume of at least 200 ELX, or by depositing at least 100 USDT and trading 100 USDT worth of ELX via their first trade. Existing users can also qualify for rewards by trading at least 500 USDT worth of ELX on the Spot market. The campaign is valid till Mar 24, 2025, 9AM UTC.

Bybit also offers two additional ELX airdrop campaigns to its users. One of these is the 

 event. In order to receive your share of the airdrop, just follow these three steps: 

The airdrop is valid till Mar 31, 2025, 10AM UTC.

. Win a share of the 40,000 ELX prize pool by registering for the event, completing specified tasks to earn Lucky Draw tickets and spinning the wheel by using your tickets. You can register for the event until Mar 20, 2025, 12AM UTC, and the Lucky Spin period ends exactly 24 hours after this date.

Additionally, Elixir runs its own reward campaign, 

, that lets you earn Potions, points that help you build power across the platform’s network of participating DEXs. However, note that participation in the Apothecary campaign doesn't guarantee an airdrop of ELX tokens.

Elixir is a relatively new entrant in the DeFi space. The project launched the first phase of its mainnet in October 2024, with the main launch in March 2025. Elixir’s platform aims to address the issue of inflexibility of RWA use 

. The project aims to focus its efforts on larger institutional players, including leading investment funds.

At the same time, while Elixir pursues the ambitious goal of attracting the big players of the financial world via its RWA stream, its second key specialization — liquidity support to DEXs — should provide enough quick wins within the shorter term. With more than 30 DEXs already in Elixir’s ecosystem, it looks like this specialization is already paying dividends. The question now is: Will the push for the top brass of the institutional finance world enjoy similar success? 

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Elixir (ELX): The institutional bridge to DeFi liquidity

Bybit Learn

Strategies

Unsure of whether to HODL or take profits? Why not use the Bitcoin rainbow chart as a fun and informative way of gauging long-term price movements.

Knowing when to buy or sell cryptocurrency is always going to be tricky and requires ample research into recent trends, as well as the state of your preferred currency. Looking at past pricing trends can be helpful when making future investment decisions. In 2014, a crypto rainbow chart was created for 

 to highlight the evolution of Bitcoin’s price. This chart has been used by many BTC investors to predict when the market may enter 

territory. The following guide takes an in-depth look at the Bitcoin rainbow chart and when you should consider using it.

The Bitcoin rainbow chart is a basic logarithmic regression chart that denotes how the Bitcoin price has evolved over time. This crypto rainbow chart uses colored bands to indicate when it may be time to buy, sell or hold.

The first component of the Bitcoin rainbow chart was created in 2014 by 

. At this stage, the rainbow color chart was placed online to show the Bitcoin trending price. This chart was only designed to be a fun and interesting graphic that other Bitcoin investors might enjoy taking a look at. Because of how colorful and surprisingly accurate the chart turned out to be, it was given the name "Bitcoin rainbow chart."

Later that year, a logistic model known as logarithmic regression was introduced by a 

. This statistical model indicates a situation where decay or growth accelerates rapidly at the beginning before slowing down over time, which is a trend that many cryptocurrencies adhere to. Once the algorithmic regression was applied to the BTC logarithmic chart, the rainbow had a curve to it. At the beginning of the chart, the curve rose sharply before beginning to eventually level out.

Even though the Bitcoin rainbow chart isn't meant to be predictive, it has remained relatively accurate since it was created. The rainbow consists of nine separate bands of colors with blue on the low end and red on the high end. When the Bitcoin price decreases, the line starts moving toward the blue color band. An increase in pricing pushes it toward the red color band. Despite using nine bands of different colors, the chart initially displayed three captions that read:

 eventually improved this crypto rainbow chart by adding captions to each band for a more precise understanding of when to buy, sell or hold.

Even though the BTC logarithmic chart has always been popular among Bitcoin traders, this indicator has increased considerably in popularity over the past six months or so, which is when BTC prices began nosediving and essentially halved in value. This price movement lines up with past Bitcoin trends. In 2013, Bitcoin reached a high value of $1,237 before dropping sharply to around $112 over the next few months.

Nearly four years later, Bitcoin reached a peak of $19,345 toward the end of 2017. BTC value would drop to just $7,500 over the next few months. Another four years later, Bitcoin reached a value of just under $70,000 at the end of 2021. Its value almost immediately dropped and now sits at around $30,000.

As mentioned above, the Bitcoin rainbow chart consists of nine distinct bands with different colors. These bands are put together to create a rainbow. In this specific crypto rainbow chart, the nine bands are referred to as:

Since a logarithmic regression model was added to the Bitcoin rainbow chart, traders can use it to better understand crypto price movements and what they mean. This chart is based on a natural logarithmic curve that displays various hues for the purpose of helping traders know how to time entries and exits.

The horizontal view of this crypto rainbow chart chart shows the date, while the vertical view highlights the Bitcoin price. Even though the logarithmic regression model was added to the BTC logarithmic chart in 2014, it has been correct up to this point.

Because of how the logarithmic regression model indicated a sharp increase toward the beginning before an eventual flattening of the curve, the red band was already at a price of $620 by the beginning of 2014. By 2021, this band indicated a value of $114,000. Bitcoin was subsequently priced at $36,000, which placed it close to the center of the Bitcoin rainbow chart.

Pros and Cons of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

The main benefits of this crypto rainbow chart are as follows:

The various issues associated with using this chart to make investment decisions include:

If you want a foolproof way to make investment decisions on buying or selling Bitcoin, the truth is that doing so is practically impossible. While the Bitcoin rainbow chart has proven to be an effective measurement of market changes and volatility since it was created in 2014, it's not an indicator of future Bitcoin prices.

While crypto rainbow charts like this one shouldn't be the only thing you use to inform your future investment decisions, the info you obtain from looking at long-term price movements can help you gain a better understanding of the volatility for a specific crypto.

The exceedingly high price of Bitcoin means that any fluctuations are going to appear substantial. A 1% drop in Bitcoin’s current price would amount to a reduction of $300. This specific chart shows that the BTC price enters the bull market peak approximately every 3–4 years. These trends may indicate the same for the future, which could allow you to make predictions on BTC price movements.

Combining Indicators for Improved Accuracy

RSI allows traders to identify when an asset’s price isn't close to its "real" value, which gives traders the opportunity to make investment decisions before the market responds accordingly. The RSI indicator displays a value ranging from 0–100.

This value is shown on a chart via a wave pattern. If the RSI ever rises above 70, this indicates that Bitcoin is being bought too heavily, which means that it's a good time to trade before the price drops. The indicator you use largely depends on what type of trader/investor you are. If you want to attempt to perfectly time the market, both the RSI indicator and the BTC logarithmic chart may give you the data you need to "predict" price trends.

Overall, the Bitcoin rainbow chart or any other display of logarithmic regression can only be helpful up to a certain point. Understanding the long-term trading indicators and price trends associated with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will invariably make you a more knowledgeable investor. However, past price movements don't necessarily correlate with future performance. If you decide to use the Bitcoin crypto rainbow chart, make sure that it isn't the only tool you use when investing.

Bitcoin Rainbow Chart: Logarithmic Regression and BTC Price Movements

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