AI Summary
Show More
Quickly grasp the article's content and gauge market sentiment in just 30 seconds!
Disclaimer: Please note that Bybit Gold & FX has been renamed to Bybit TradFi as of June 2025. Bybit TradFi is powered by Infra Capital (Mauritius FSC licensed).
Key Highlights:
Large moves: Oil fell 22% in one week after Trump’s tariff announcement in early April
OPEC supply control: Cartel decisions move the market quickly
July is key: OPEC meeting, Iran-US talks and Trump’s tariff policy could shift the price outlook
Demand risk: Trade war and global slowdown continue to weigh on consumption
Technical levels: $60 is the key pivot point, and a break could trigger a drop to $54.50
Fibonacci targets: Upside potential at $63 and $68 if tariffs ease
Trade crude oil fluctuations with Bybit MT5.
Oil is the most volatile major commodity in global markets, significantly more so than gold. It’s not uncommon for oil prices to rise or fall by 5% or more in a single day. This makes oil one of the most attractive instruments for active traders, offering frequent price swings and rapid opportunities.
Unlike most commodities, oil prices are influenced not only by global demand and macroeconomic conditions, but also by direct supply decisions made by producers. These decisions can trigger major shifts — especially when they come from the OPEC cartel, which plays a unique and powerful role in managing global oil output.
Oil supply isn’t fixed like that of gold or silver. It’s flexible and largely managed by OPEC and its allies — known collectively as OPEC Plus — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Qatar and other producers. Together, they control more than 35% of global oil supply.
Their decisions to increase or cut production can move the market instantly. For example, OPEC is now considering a third consecutive supply hike, possibly increasing output by 138,000 or even 411,000 barrels per day. Moves of this scale tend to push oil prices lower.
Traders monitor OPEC meetings closely, because supply decisions directly impact price direction. The next major meeting — scheduled for July 2025 — could set the tone for oil markets for the rest of the year.
On the demand side, the biggest current factor is Trump’s trade policy. New tariffs slow global trade, and slower trade reduces global growth — and with it, the demand for oil.
This was clearly seen on April 2, when Trump announced a new round of tariffs. Oil prices quickly dropped from $70 to $54 in just a few days — a 22% decline. Later, when tariffs were delayed, oil prices recovered to above $60.
It’s a clear example of how traders respond to political headlines. If more tariffs are announced, oil could fall again. But if a US-China trade agreement is reached, oil prices might rebound sharply on improved demand expectations.
Beyond trade policy, the following supply-side catalysts are coming into play.
Iran: Ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran could lead to a nuclear agreement. If sanctions are lifted, Iran could reintroduce large volumes of oil into global markets, likely pushing prices down.
Russia–Ukraine war: A ceasefire or peace deal could free up more Russian oil supply.
Inflation control: Trump has motivation to lower inflation. Cheaper oil helps reduce fuel prices, which can bring inflation numbers down. This gives his administration an added reason to favor policies that lower oil prices.
Oil is traded through two main contracts:
WTI crude represents American oil, mainly produced in the US.
Brent: This global benchmark is based on oil produced in Europe, Africa and Asia. Brent typically trades at a slight premium, due to higher production and transport costs.
Both contracts are highly correlated. Traders choose between them based on geographic preference, liquidity and contract structure.
Looking at the daily chart of WTI crude, the following important patterns are in play.
A double top formation has emerged around $63, and has been tested twice since April.
The recent low and major support level is at $54.50.
Current prices are hovering near $60, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (Fibonacci retracements area widely used in technical analysis).
A break below $60, combined with renewed tariff fears, could quickly send prices back to $54.50.
If tariffs ease or market sentiment improves, oil could break above $63, with momentum pushing it toward the next resistance level at $68, which is also the 161.8% Fibonacci Golden Extension level.
Other Fibonacci levels to monitor:
78.6% retracement at $61.20.
The $63 to $68 range shows minimal resistance, and could see fast price action.
These levels offer traders clear entry and exit points, based on momentum, reversals and breakout setups.
Oil remains one of the most dynamic assets to trade, driven by shifting supply, policy decisions and changing global demand. The combination of OPEC’s actions, geopolitical negotiations and tariff developments creates continuous opportunities.
In the coming weeks, make sure to focus on these key drivers:
The OPEC meeting in July
Trump’s trade policy developments
US-Iran negotiations
From a technical perspective, $60 is the key level. A decisive move above or below it could define the next major trend.
For now, the blend of macro news, OPEC production plans and technical volatility makes oil one of the top markets for traders looking to catch fast and meaningful moves.