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Key Highlights:
NVIDIA has become the first company in history to hit a $4 trillion market cap, reaching $164 per share.
The technology corporation dominates the AI chip space, supplying major players like Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Meta and Amazon.
This earnings season could trigger the next breakout, with targets set at $180 and $200.
RSI and Bollinger Bands® indicators show room for further upside, despite overbought signals.
US policy momentum, including AI and energy executive actions, is adding long-term support.
Tariff tensions and weaker demand remain key risks, but seem contained for now.
Trade with Bybit on the NVIDIA movements here.
NVIDIA has officially become the most valuable company in the world, hitting a historic $4 trillion market cap when the stock reached $164 per share. This milestone was a long-term target for traders and institutions alike, and it was reached ahead of NVIDIA's Q2 2025 earnings report. Strong results could push the stock even higher, with new targets at $180 and potentially $200 by year’s end.
NVIDIA’s dominance is built on its leadership in AI chips. These chips power virtually every major AI application, including ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok and others. Simply put, any company building AI products relies on NVIDIA's infrastructure.
To understand NVIDIA’s edge, consider this: AMD, its closest competitor in AI chips, is valued at just $237 billion, around 6% of NVIDIA’s market cap. That makes NVIDIA a near-monopoly in the fastest-growing tech sector in the world.
The Trump administration has recently accelerated its commitment to American AI leadership. A sweeping executive order on artificial intelligence directed the development of a national AI Action Plan aimed at sustaining and enhancing US dominance in this space. The policy framework focuses on protecting innovation, avoiding heavy regulation and reinforcing AI's role in national security and economic competitiveness.
At the same time, a set of executive actions is being prepared to boost the energy infrastructure needed to support AI development. The surge in demand for processing power is already testing grids, and the administration aims to ensure the US has the energy capacity required to maintain its technological edge.
Together, these developments signal deep government backing for AI expansion, a long-term boost for NVIDIA’s business model.
NVIDIA’s clients include every other member of the Magnificent Seven stocks: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta and Apple. [Note: In 2025, Broadcom (AVGO) has replaced Tesla as a member of the Magnificent Seven.] These firms are investing tens of billions of dollars into AI projects annually.in
When Magnificent Seven companies announce strong AI-driven results or product launches, it often implies higher future demand for NVIDIA chips. Traders take note of this connection, and adjust their positions ahead of NVIDIA’s own earnings, which usually come out late in the season. Most Magnificent Seven companies report Q2 results in late July and early August, while NVIDIA typically reports in late August.
That timing provides a valuable opportunity: if the Magnificent Seven show sustained AI momentum, NVIDIA stock could rally even before its report.
From a technical standpoint, NVIDIA recently reached its long-term target of $164, the level linked to a $4 trillion valuation. Now, the focus shifts to momentum.
The weekly chart shows the stock pushing the top of the Bollinger Band, indicating some resistance. However, NVIDIA has previously trended along the band for extended periods, especially in high-momentum environments such as earnings season. Its RSI is currently at 66, not yet overbought. And critically, the RSI reached 90 in March 2024 and 84 in June 2024, showing that NVIDIA can hold strong upward trends well above the standard 70 threshold. If the RSI returns to the 90 zone, the $200 year-end target becomes achievable.
Source: TradingView
Downside pressure could come from two angles: weaker earnings from AI clients, and renewed tariff tensions.
If companies like Microsoft or Meta reduce AI spending or report disappointing results, it could reduce NVIDIA’s growth outlook. Tariff risks, particularly US–China tensions, could also weigh on sentiment.
However, both risks seem contained for now. AI demand remains strong, and there’s been no major decline in the trade environment.
With its $4 trillion milestone reached, NVIDIA is no longer just a growth stock — it’s the benchmark for the entire AI industry. As earnings season unfolds, traders will look to NVIDIA for direction on both sentiment and momentum in the tech sector.
If fundamentals remain strong and supportive policies stay in place, a stock price of $180 and even $200 could be in play before the end of 2025.