Bybit TradFi Report: Without US government data to look for, private data shows the market is stabilizing

With the official labor data suspended due to the ongoing US government shutdown, market participants are turning to alternative sources to gauge the health of the US labor market. Bloomberg News has reconstructed weekly unemployment claims, using unadjusted state-level filings and seasonal adjustment factors from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This workaround provides a provisional snapshot of labor market conditions, though it lacks the full fidelity of the US Department of Labor’s standard releases.

Private compiled data

According to Bloomberg’s analysis, initial jobless claims fell to approximately 218,000 for the week ending October 25, down from a revised 231,000 the previous week. This decline suggests a modest improvement in labor market conditions, though the absence of data from Massachusetts, Arizona, the District of Columbia and the Virgin Islands introduces some uncertainty. For these jurisdictions, Bloomberg substituted the average of the prior four weeks in order to maintain continuity. While this method closely mirrors official seasonal adjustments when all states are included, the missing data points underscore the limitations of relying on partial inputs.

Continuing claims